Manchester City v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 31 October 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Manchester City

15:00 UTC

Brighton and Hove Albion

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 21 Oct, 11:05 · 244h before kick-off

Manchester City win

55.8%

model 59.5%

Draw

22.1%

model 20.5%

Brighton and Hove Albion win

22.1%

model 20.0%

562222

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 9.8%
1-1 9.2%
2-0 8.5%
1-0 8.0%
3-1 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	63.8%	Under 2.5	36.2%
BTTS yes	60.4%	BTTS no	39.6%
Manchester City 1+	88.1%	Manchester City 2+	62.7%
Brighton and Hove Albion 1+	68.6%	Brighton and Hove Albion 2+	32.3%

Expected goals 2.13 – 1.16. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

97/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Manchester City scores more in 1st half

Home highest scoring half · usually 26%

51.2% fair odds 1.96

strong signal · 432 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Brighton and Hove Albion (0:3)

Handicap 0:3 · usually 89%

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 296 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Manchester City carry the stronger rating, 1874 Elo against 1715.
Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.
At home Manchester City average 2.54 xG a match.

Risk factors

Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 3.20 a match from 2.19 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Manchester City have an estimated 55.8% win probability, against 22.1% for the draw and 22.1% for Brighton and Hove Albion. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.13 for Manchester City and 1.16 for Brighton and Hove Albion.

Why Manchester City

Manchester City carry the stronger rating, 1874 Elo against 1715. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five. At home Manchester City average 2.54 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.1%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Brighton and Hove Albion can win

Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five. Away from home Brighton and Hove Albion average 2.06 xG a match.

Key players

Manchester City's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Erling Haaland (0.87), Mathis Cherki (0.41), Phil Foden (0.38). Brighton and Hove Albion's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Danny Welbeck (0.38), Pascal Groß (0.36), Jack Hinshelwood (0.32).

Availability

1 of Manchester City's top three contributors did not start their last match. 2 of Brighton and Hove Albion's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Manchester City: 60% possession, 15.2 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Brighton and Hove Albion: 54% possession, 17.8 shots a match, 10.4 faced, 0.75 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-21 11:56 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-21 15:05 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Manchester City are the model's most likely outcome at 55.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.8%. Confidence 97/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Manchester City are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WDLWWWWWWW last 10 scored 24 from 21.3 xG conceded 10 from 13.9 xG

Brighton and Hove Albion are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WLLWLDWWWW last 10 scored 26 from 21.9 xG conceded 9 from 13.7 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	592020	2.13–1.16	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	632116	2.17–1.01	1-1 10%	62%	57%
dc-xg	562123	2.06–1.25	2-1 10%	64%	62%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to win	60.5%	58.1%	43.0%	1.35×	1.72
Draw	20.0%	19.4%	24.8%	0.78×	5.15
Brighton and Hove Albion to win	19.5%	19.4%	32.3%	0.60×	5.15

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City & both teams score	33.0%	29.6%	22.9%	1.29×	3.38
Manchester City & not both score	27.4%	25.2%	20.1%	1.25×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	16.5%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.57
Brighton and Hove Albion & both teams score	11.8%	13.3%	15.3%	0.86×	7.54
Brighton and Hove Albion & not both score	7.7%	8.3%	17.1%	0.49×	12.01
Draw & not both score	3.5%	4.9%	5.0%	0.98×	20.59

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City & over 1.5	52.9%	48.9%	36.6%	1.33×	2.05
Manchester City & over 2.5	44.6%	40.3%	30.3%	1.33×	2.48
Manchester City & under 3.5	31.7%	30.8%	26.6%	1.16×	3.25
Manchester City & over 3.5	28.8%	26.1%	16.5%	1.58×	3.84
Draw & over 1.5	16.5%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Manchester City & under 2.5	15.9%	18.0%	12.8%	1.41×	5.56
Brighton and Hove Albion & over 1.5	15.5%	18.0%	25.3%	0.71×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	12.3%	12.8%	16.3%	0.79×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	12.3%	12.8%	16.3%	0.79×	7.79
Brighton and Hove Albion & over 2.5	13.1%	12.8%	19.8%	0.65×	7.79
Brighton and Hove Albion & under 3.5	12.6%	12.8%	21.9%	0.59×	7.79
Manchester City & under 1.5	7.6%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.7%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.7%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Brighton and Hove Albion & under 2.5	6.4%	7.9%	12.6%	0.63×	12.63
Brighton and Hove Albion & over 3.5	7.0%	7.9%	10.6%	0.75×	12.63
Brighton and Hove Albion & under 1.5	4.1%	4.8%	7.1%	0.68×	20.81
Draw & under 1.5	3.5%	4.8%	5.0%	0.97×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (1UP)	74.4%	75.7%	62.0%	1.22×	1.32
Brighton and Hove Albion (1UP)	39.9%	34.3%	51.5%	0.67×	2.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (2UP)	60.5%	68.1%	44.7%	1.52×	1.47
Brighton and Hove Albion (2UP)	19.5%	17.5%	34.5%	0.51×	5.73

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to win 2nd half	38.8%	36.2%	36.2%	1.00×	2.77
2nd half drawn	34.0%	34.3%	31.1%	1.10×	2.91
Brighton and Hove Albion to win 2nd half	27.2%	25.7%	32.8%	0.79×	3.88

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion under 1.5 in 2nd half	83.2%	84.4%	79.9%	1.06×	1.19
Brighton and Hove Albion over 0.5 in 2nd half	52.1%	52.6%	57.8%	0.91×	1.90
Brighton and Hove Albion under 0.5 in 2nd half	47.9%	47.4%	42.2%	1.12×	2.11
Brighton and Hove Albion over 1.5 in 2nd half	16.8%	15.6%	20.1%	0.78×	6.41

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City under 1.5 in 2nd half	75.7%	75.4%	75.2%	1.00×	1.33
Manchester City over 0.5 in 2nd half	61.0%	63.1%	58.3%	1.08×	1.58
Manchester City under 0.5 in 2nd half	39.0%	36.9%	41.7%	0.88×	2.71
Manchester City over 1.5 in 2nd half	24.3%	24.6%	24.8%	0.99×	4.06

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (+0.5)	80.5%	82.5%	67.7%	1.22×	1.21
Brighton and Hove Albion (+2.5)	80.2%	82.5%	89.1%	0.93×	1.21
Brighton and Hove Albion (+1.5)	62.0%	62.9%	76.0%	0.83×	1.59
Manchester City (-0.5)	60.5%	62.9%	43.0%	1.46×	1.59
Brighton and Hove Albion (+0.5)	39.5%	37.1%	57.0%	0.65×	2.70
Manchester City (-1.5)	38.0%	37.1%	24.0%	1.54×	2.70
Manchester City (-2.5)	19.8%	17.5%	10.9%	1.61×	5.72
Brighton and Hove Albion (-0.5)	19.5%	17.5%	32.3%	0.54×	5.72

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion to concede	88.8%	86.3%	78.1%	1.11×	1.16
Brighton and Hove Albion clean sheet	11.2%	13.7%	21.9%	0.62×	7.32

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion to concede in 1st half	71.3%	77.1%	51.2%	1.51×	1.30
Brighton and Hove Albion clean sheet in 1st half	28.7%	22.9%	48.8%	0.47×	4.37

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion to concede in 2nd half	61.0%	61.6%	58.3%	1.06×	1.62
Brighton and Hove Albion clean sheet in 2nd half	39.0%	38.4%	41.7%	0.92×	2.60

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion under 6.5 corners	90.3%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Brighton and Hove Albion under 5.5 corners	82.7%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Brighton and Hove Albion under 4.5 corners	71.1%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Brighton and Hove Albion over 2.5 corners	63.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Brighton and Hove Albion under 3.5 corners	55.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Brighton and Hove Albion over 3.5 corners	44.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Brighton and Hove Albion under 2.5 corners	36.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Brighton and Hove Albion over 4.5 corners	28.9%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Brighton and Hove Albion over 5.5 corners	17.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
Brighton and Hove Albion over 6.5 corners	9.7%	10.1%	—	—	9.88

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion under 3.5 goals	96.8%	97.5%	94.6%	1.03×	1.03
Brighton and Hove Albion under 2.5 goals	88.5%	87.8%	85.1%	1.03×	1.14
Brighton and Hove Albion over 0.5 goals	69.1%	68.0%	75.0%	0.91×	1.47
Brighton and Hove Albion under 1.5 goals	67.2%	68.0%	60.6%	1.12×	1.47
Brighton and Hove Albion over 1.5 goals	32.8%	32.0%	39.4%	0.81×	3.12
Brighton and Hove Albion under 0.5 goals	30.9%	32.0%	25.0%	1.28×	3.13
Brighton and Hove Albion over 2.5 goals	11.5%	12.2%	14.9%	0.82×	8.21
Brighton and Hove Albion over 3.5 goals	3.2%	2.5%	5.4%	0.47×	39.87

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion under 1.5 in 1st half	92.8%	93.9%	89.3%	1.05×	1.07
Brighton and Hove Albion under 0.5 in 1st half	64.5%	63.7%	59.7%	1.07×	1.57
Brighton and Hove Albion over 0.5 in 1st half	35.5%	36.3%	40.3%	0.90×	2.76
Brighton and Hove Albion over 1.5 in 1st half	7.2%	6.1%	10.7%	0.57×	16.41

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion scores equally in both	41.7%	43.4%	37.5%	1.16×	2.31
Brighton and Hove Albion scores more in 2nd half	38.6%	37.4%	40.8%	0.91×	2.68
Brighton and Hove Albion scores more in 1st half	19.7%	18.2%	21.7%	0.84×	5.51

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (away no bet)	75.2%	73.5%	63.5%	1.16×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	24.8%	26.5%	36.5%	0.73×	3.77

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion even goals	54.8%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
Brighton and Hove Albion odd goals	45.2%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	74.9%	76.9%	80.0%	0.96×	1.30
Both halves over 1.5 goals	25.1%	23.1%	20.0%	1.16×	4.32

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	75.1%	72.2%	70.1%	1.03×	1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals	24.9%	27.8%	29.9%	0.93×	3.60

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	68.3%	62.4%	61.6%	1.01×	1.60
Manchester City to score 2+ in a row	55.3%	55.1%	39.2%	1.41×	1.82
Either team to score 3+ in a row	31.1%	29.1%	26.1%	1.12×	3.43
Manchester City to score 3+ in a row	26.4%	25.2%	16.4%	1.53×	3.97
Brighton and Hove Albion to score 2+ in a row	22.0%	19.6%	29.7%	0.66×	5.10
Brighton and Hove Albion to score 3+ in a row	5.2%	5.5%	10.1%	0.55×	18.13

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City corners (+3.5)	96.1%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Manchester City corners (+2.5)	93.2%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Manchester City corners (+1.5)	88.8%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Manchester City corners (-1.5)	65.4%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Manchester City corners (-2.5)	55.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Brighton and Hove Albion corners (+3.5)	55.0%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Manchester City corners (-3.5)	45.0%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Brighton and Hove Albion corners (+2.5)	44.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Brighton and Hove Albion corners (+1.5)	34.6%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Brighton and Hove Albion corners (-1.5)	11.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Brighton and Hove Albion corners (-2.5)	6.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Brighton and Hove Albion corners (-3.5)	3.9%	4.3%	—	—	23.43

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	36.2%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	34.7%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	73.5%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	73.2%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	65.3%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	63.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	56.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	53.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	46.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	43.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	36.2%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	34.7%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	26.5%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	26.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-1	9.7%	7.4%	8.9%	0.83×	13.50
1-1	8.9%	7.4%	11.4%	0.65×	13.50
2-0	8.3%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.50
3-1	7.1%	7.4%	5.4%	1.36×	13.51
Any other score	7.8%	7.4%	4.4%	1.69×	13.50
1-0	7.6%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.50
2-2	5.7%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.51
3-0	6.1%	7.4%	5.0%	1.47×	13.51
1-2	5.2%	7.4%	6.8%	1.08×	13.51
1-3	2.0%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.31
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.4%	1.22×	58.32
2-3	2.2%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.31
2-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.7%	2.60×	58.32
3-2	4.2%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.30
3-3	1.6%	1.7%	0.7%	2.31×	58.31
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.5%	3.46×	58.32
4-0	3.3%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.30
4-1	3.9%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.30
4-2	2.3%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.31
4-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.31
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.20×	58.32
0-0	3.5%	1.7%	5.0%	0.35×	58.30
0-1	4.1%	1.7%	7.1%	0.24×	58.30
0-2	2.4%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.31
0-3	0.9%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.60×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (2nd half DNB)	58.8%	59.7%	52.5%	1.14×	1.68
Brighton and Hove Albion (2nd half DNB)	41.2%	40.3%	47.5%	0.85×	2.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City leading at HT (DNB)	81.4%	85.4%	59.8%	1.43×	1.17
Brighton and Hove Albion leading at HT (DNB)	18.6%	14.6%	40.2%	0.36×	6.84

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City or draw (1X)	80.5%	80.6%	67.7%	1.19×	1.24
Manchester City or Brighton and Hove Albion (12)	80.0%	80.6%	75.2%	1.07×	1.24
Brighton and Hove Albion or draw (X2)	39.5%	41.9%	57.0%	0.73×	2.39

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City or draw at HT	87.0%	88.0%	75.7%	1.16×	1.14
Manchester City or Brighton and Hove Albion at HT	69.9%	66.8%	60.2%	1.11×	1.50
Brighton and Hove Albion or draw at HT	43.1%	42.3%	63.9%	0.66×	2.36

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City or draw (1UP)	80.5%	88.4%	74.3%	1.19×	1.13
Brighton and Hove Albion or draw (1UP)	39.9%	41.4%	65.3%	0.64×	2.41

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City or draw in 2nd half	72.8%	74.3%	67.2%	1.10×	1.35
Manchester City or Brighton and Hove Albion in 2nd half	66.0%	65.7%	68.9%	0.95×	1.52
Brighton and Hove Albion or draw in 2nd half	61.2%	63.8%	63.8%	1.00×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	53.9%	50.1%	57.1%	0.88×	2.00
Neither half drawn	46.1%	49.9%	42.9%	1.16×	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (DNB)	75.6%	74.7%	57.1%	1.31×	1.34
Brighton and Hove Albion (DNB)	24.4%	25.3%	42.9%	0.59×	3.95

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to score first	62.9%	64.6%	51.8%	1.25×	1.55
Brighton and Hove Albion to score first	33.7%	27.5%	43.3%	0.64×	3.63
No goal scored	3.5%	4.3%	5.0%	0.86×	23.38

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	61.4%	56.6%	58.0%	0.98×	1.77
Not both teams to score	38.6%	43.4%	42.0%	1.03×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	52.5%	47.3%	46.7%	1.01×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	25.7%	33.3%	30.2%	1.10×	3.00
Not both score & over 2.5	12.9%	12.4%	11.9%	1.04×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	8.9%	8.3%	11.4%	0.73×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	78.9%	79.7%	82.1%	0.97×	1.26
Both teams to score 2+	21.1%	20.3%	17.9%	1.13×	4.93

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	68.2%	67.4%	68.6%	0.98×	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	31.8%	32.6%	31.4%	1.04×	3.06

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	50.9%	54.7%	55.9%	0.98×	1.83
Both score 2nd half only	23.8%	21.1%	24.7%	0.86×	4.74
Both score 1st half only	17.3%	15.0%	12.8%	1.18×	6.65
Both score in both halves	8.1%	6.8%	6.8%	1.00×	14.66

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	74.7%	79.9%	80.4%	0.99×	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	25.3%	20.1%	19.6%	1.03×	4.96

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	66.3%	66.3%	61.6%	1.08×	1.51
A half without a goal	33.7%	33.7%	38.4%	0.88×	2.97

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	41.5%	42.1%	46.3%	0.91×	2.38
4-6 goals	37.9%	35.1%	32.8%	1.07×	2.85
0-1 goals	15.1%	20.2%	18.3%	1.10×	4.95
7+ goals	5.5%	7.6%	2.8%	2.71×	13.17

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion to score exactly 1	36.3%	35.9%	35.7%	1.01×	2.78
Brighton and Hove Albion to score exactly 0	30.9%	33.8%	25.0%	1.35×	2.96
Brighton and Hove Albion to score exactly 2	21.3%	22.3%	24.5%	0.91×	4.49
Brighton and Hove Albion to score 3+	11.5%	12.9%	14.9%	0.86×	7.77

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to score 3+	37.5%	35.6%	22.9%	1.55×	2.81
Manchester City to score exactly 2	26.8%	26.5%	26.1%	1.02×	3.77
Manchester City to score exactly 1	24.5%	23.3%	29.2%	0.80×	4.29
Manchester City to score exactly 0	11.2%	14.3%	21.9%	0.65×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City leading at HT	56.9%	57.7%	36.1%	1.60×	1.74
Draw at HT	30.1%	33.2%	39.8%	0.84×	3.01
Brighton and Hove Albion leading at HT	13.0%	12.0%	24.3%	0.49×	8.35

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City -1: 2	39.5%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Manchester City -1: 1	38.0%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Manchester City -1: X	22.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (0:1)	39.5%	37.4%	57.0%	0.66×	2.68
Manchester City (0:1)	38.0%	37.3%	24.0%	1.56×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	22.5%	24.2%	19.1%	1.27×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (0:2)	62.0%	67.1%	76.0%	0.88×	1.49
Manchester City (0:2)	19.8%	15.3%	10.9%	1.41×	6.53
Draw (0:2)	18.1%	15.3%	13.2%	1.16×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (0:3)	80.2%	85.3%	89.1%	0.96×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	11.1%	9.9%	7.6%	1.31×	10.07
Manchester City (0:3)	8.7%	5.8%	3.4%	1.72×	17.19

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (0:4)	91.3%	94.5%	96.6%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.4%	4.6%	2.1%	2.22×	21.79
Manchester City (0:4)	3.2%	1.2%	1.4%	0.87×	81.74

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (1:0)	80.5%	81.3%	67.7%	1.20×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	12.1%	12.7%	16.7%	0.76×	7.87
Brighton and Hove Albion (1:0)	7.5%	6.9%	15.7%	0.44×	14.49

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (2:0)	92.5%	94.0%	84.3%	1.11×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	5.2%	6.4%	9.2%	0.69×	15.71
Brighton and Hove Albion (2:0)	2.3%	2.3%	6.5%	0.35×	43.69

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	38.8%	38.8%	25.8%	1.50×	2.58
2nd half highest scoring	38.4%	38.4%	49.6%	0.78×	2.60
Halves equal	22.8%	24.3%	24.7%	0.99×	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to concede	69.1%	66.7%	75.0%	0.89×	1.50
Manchester City clean sheet	30.9%	33.3%	25.0%	1.33×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City clean sheet in 1st half	64.5%	63.6%	59.7%	1.07×	1.57
Manchester City to concede in 1st half	35.5%	36.4%	40.3%	0.90×	2.75

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to concede in 2nd half	52.1%	52.7%	57.8%	0.91×	1.90
Manchester City clean sheet in 2nd half	47.9%	47.3%	42.2%	1.12×	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City over 2.5 corners	91.5%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Manchester City over 3.5 corners	83.0%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Manchester City over 4.5 corners	72.1%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Manchester City over 5.5 corners	60.0%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Manchester City under 6.5 corners	52.2%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Manchester City over 6.5 corners	47.8%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Manchester City under 5.5 corners	40.0%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Manchester City under 4.5 corners	27.9%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Manchester City under 3.5 corners	17.0%	19.0%	—	—	5.25
Manchester City under 2.5 corners	8.5%	10.8%	—	—	9.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City over 0.5 goals	88.8%	87.3%	78.1%	1.12×	1.15
Manchester City under 3.5 goals	82.1%	82.2%	91.5%	0.90×	1.22
Manchester City over 1.5 goals	64.3%	63.6%	48.9%	1.30×	1.57
Manchester City under 2.5 goals	62.5%	63.6%	77.1%	0.83×	1.57
Manchester City over 2.5 goals	37.5%	36.4%	22.9%	1.59×	2.75
Manchester City under 1.5 goals	35.7%	36.4%	51.1%	0.71×	2.75
Manchester City over 3.5 goals	17.9%	17.8%	8.5%	2.09×	5.62
Manchester City under 0.5 goals	11.2%	12.7%	21.9%	0.58×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City over 0.5 in 1st half	71.3%	78.9%	51.2%	1.54×	1.27
Manchester City under 1.5 in 1st half	64.5%	65.0%	84.4%	0.77×	1.54
Manchester City over 1.5 in 1st half	35.5%	35.0%	15.6%	2.24×	2.86
Manchester City under 0.5 in 1st half	28.7%	21.1%	48.8%	0.43×	4.75

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City scores more in 1st half	43.3%	42.1%	26.3%	1.60×	2.38
Manchester City scores equally in both	28.8%	27.8%	37.7%	0.74×	3.59
Manchester City scores more in 2nd half	27.9%	27.8%	36.1%	0.77×	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	50.6%	51.3%	43.4%	1.18×	1.95
Brighton and Hove Albion (home no bet)	49.4%	48.7%	56.6%	0.86×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City even goals	50.6%	50.7%	54.0%	0.94×	1.97
Manchester City odd goals	49.4%	49.3%	46.0%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	23.1%	24.4%	21.5%	1.13×	4.09
HT 0-0	18.5%	18.6%	28.1%	0.66×	5.38
HT 2-0	14.4%	11.0%	8.0%	1.38×	9.06
Any other HT score	14.0%	11.0%	5.4%	2.03×	9.06
HT 1-1	10.1%	11.0%	10.8%	1.02×	9.10
HT 0-1	8.1%	6.9%	14.8%	0.47×	14.47
HT 2-1	6.3%	6.9%	3.7%	1.86×	14.50
HT 1-2	2.2%	2.4%	2.9%	0.82×	42.13
HT 0-2	1.8%	2.4%	4.4%	0.54×	42.16
HT 2-2	1.4%	2.4%	1.0%	2.39×	42.19

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City at HT / Manchester City at FT	47.2%	47.4%	26.4%	1.79×	2.11
Draw at HT / Manchester City at FT	11.7%	12.6%	13.9%	0.91×	7.91
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	10.2%	12.6%	13.8%	0.92×	7.92
Brighton and Hove Albion at HT / Brighton and Hove Albion at FT	8.6%	6.0%	16.7%	0.36×	16.58
Draw at HT / Brighton and Hove Albion at FT	8.2%	6.0%	12.3%	0.49×	16.60
Manchester City at HT / Draw at FT	6.9%	6.0%	6.4%	0.95×	16.63
Manchester City at HT / Brighton and Hove Albion at FT	2.8%	3.5%	3.5%	1.01×	28.66
Brighton and Hove Albion at HT / Draw at FT	2.8%	3.5%	4.8%	0.73×	28.66
Brighton and Hove Albion at HT / Manchester City at FT	1.6%	3.5%	2.9%	1.21×	28.71

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to score last	62.9%	62.3%	50.1%	1.24×	1.61
Brighton and Hove Albion to score last	33.7%	32.7%	45.1%	0.73×	3.06
No goal scored	3.5%	4.3%	5.0%	0.86×	23.38

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.5%	95.7%	95.1%	1.01×	1.05
Manchester City to lead by 1 at any time	74.4%	74.4%	62.0%	1.20×	1.34
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	58.6%	54.9%	50.6%	1.09×	1.82
Manchester City to lead by 2 at any time	45.9%	44.5%	29.9%	1.49×	2.25
Brighton and Hove Albion to lead by 1 at any time	39.9%	34.7%	51.5%	0.67×	2.88
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	27.1%	25.5%	21.2%	1.20×	3.92
Manchester City to lead by 3 at any time	23.5%	19.7%	13.2%	1.49×	5.08
Brighton and Hove Albion to lead by 2 at any time	13.2%	10.5%	21.0%	0.50×	9.55
Brighton and Hove Albion to lead by 3 at any time	3.6%	1.6%	8.1%	0.20×	61.19

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City most corners	74.8%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Brighton and Hove Albion most corners	17.3%	19.2%	—	—	5.21
Corners level	7.9%	8.4%	—	—	11.97

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.1%	83.4%	88.4%	0.94×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.4%	78.7%	79.0%	1.00×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.4%	72.4%	75.1%	0.96×	1.38
1-4 goals	71.6%	72.4%	77.9%	0.93×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.0%	59.1%	64.5%	0.92×	1.69
3-6 goals	59.9%	59.1%	55.8%	1.06×	1.69
1-3 goals	53.1%	53.2%	59.7%	0.89×	1.88
3-5 goals	52.9%	53.2%	51.9%	1.02×	1.88
2-3 goals	41.5%	43.6%	46.3%	0.94×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.4%	43.6%	41.3%	1.05×	2.30
4-6 goals	37.9%	39.2%	32.8%	1.20×	2.55
1-2 goals	31.2%	35.2%	36.6%	0.96×	2.84
4-5 goals	30.9%	35.2%	28.9%	1.22×	2.84
5-6 goals	19.4%	18.8%	14.5%	1.30×	5.31
7+ goals	5.5%	8.9%	2.8%	3.16×	11.28

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City never behind	56.6%	62.4%	48.5%	1.29×	1.60
Brighton and Hove Albion never behind	22.1%	24.6%	38.0%	0.65×	4.07

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	49.2%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	50.8%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	51.7%	51.6%	53.5%	0.97×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	48.3%	48.4%	46.5%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.7%	51.9%	51.9%	1.00×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.3%	48.1%	48.1%	1.00×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.5%	95.4%	95.1%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	87.5%	87.6%	93.3%	0.94×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	84.9%	82.3%	81.7%	1.01×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	75.1%	77.3%	82.8%	0.93×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	65.4%	66.3%	58.5%	1.13×	1.51
Under 3.5 goals	56.6%	58.6%	64.5%	0.91×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	43.4%	41.4%	35.5%	1.17×	2.42
Under 2.5 goals	34.6%	33.7%	41.5%	0.81×	2.97
Over 4.5 goals	24.9%	22.7%	17.2%	1.32×	4.40
Under 1.5 goals	15.1%	17.7%	18.3%	0.97×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	12.5%	12.4%	6.7%	1.86×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	3.5%	4.6%	5.0%	0.92×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.1%	92.4%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	85.7%	86.7%	92.5%	0.94×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	81.3%	81.1%	76.2%	1.06×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	69.4%	67.5%	78.9%	0.86×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	55.6%	55.8%	46.1%	1.21×	1.79
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	44.4%	44.2%	53.9%	0.82×	2.26
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	30.6%	32.5%	21.1%	1.54×	3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	18.7%	18.9%	23.8%	0.79×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	14.3%	13.3%	7.5%	1.78×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.9%	7.6%	2.9%	2.60×	13.17

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	81.5%	85.8%	71.9%	1.19×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 1st half	76.1%	78.1%	87.2%	0.90×	1.28
Over 1.5 in 1st half	50.3%	54.8%	35.7%	1.54×	1.82
Under 1.5 in 1st half	49.7%	45.2%	64.3%	0.70×	2.22
Over 2.5 in 1st half	23.9%	21.9%	12.8%	1.71×	4.56
Under 0.5 in 1st half	18.5%	14.3%	28.1%	0.51×	7.02

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.3%	83.2%	84.7%	0.98×	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	76.3%	79.3%	75.7%	1.05×	1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	50.0%	53.1%	54.4%	0.98×	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	50.0%	46.9%	45.6%	1.03×	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	23.7%	20.7%	24.3%	0.85×	4.84
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.7%	16.8%	15.3%	1.10×	5.94

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion not to score in both halves	81.5%	84.3%	76.9%	1.10×	1.19
Manchester City not to score in both halves	56.5%	58.0%	68.6%	0.85×	1.73
Manchester City to score in both halves	43.5%	42.0%	31.4%	1.34×	2.38
Brighton and Hove Albion to score in both halves	18.5%	15.7%	23.1%	0.68×	6.37

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	61.4%	60.3%	58.0%	1.04×	1.66
Only Manchester City scores	27.4%	26.0%	20.1%	1.29×	3.84
Only Brighton and Hove Albion scores	7.7%	7.1%	17.1%	0.42×	14.04
Neither team scores	3.5%	4.6%	5.0%	0.93×	21.70

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	19.6%	17.5%	23.3%	0.75×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	18.5%	17.5%	18.3%	0.95×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	12.4%	12.1%	10.6%	1.14×	8.25
6 or more goals	12.5%	12.1%	6.7%	1.81×	8.25
Exactly 1 goals	11.6%	12.1%	13.4%	0.90×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	3.5%	4.5%	5.0%	0.90×	22.39

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	31.2%	35.8%	36.2%	0.99×	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	26.3%	28.2%	23.0%	1.23×	3.54
3+ goals in 1st half	23.9%	21.5%	12.8%	1.68×	4.64
No goals in 1st half	18.5%	15.7%	28.1%	0.56×	6.38

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	50.0%	51.2%	54.4%	0.94×	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	31.3%	33.8%	30.4%	1.11×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	18.7%	16.5%	15.3%	1.08×	6.06

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion not to win both halves	96.5%	97.2%	91.3%	1.06×	1.03
Manchester City not to win both halves	77.9%	75.5%	86.4%	0.87×	1.32
Manchester City to win both halves	22.1%	24.5%	13.6%	1.80×	4.08
Brighton and Hove Albion to win both halves	3.5%	2.8%	8.7%	0.33×	35.32

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to win either half	73.6%	73.1%	58.7%	1.25×	1.37
Brighton and Hove Albion to win neither half	63.3%	65.1%	51.7%	1.26×	1.54
Brighton and Hove Albion to win either half	36.7%	34.9%	48.4%	0.72×	2.87
Manchester City to win neither half	26.4%	26.9%	41.3%	0.65×	3.72

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion not to win to nil	92.3%	92.1%	82.9%	1.11×	1.09
Manchester City not to win to nil	72.6%	75.3%	79.9%	0.94×	1.33
Manchester City to win to nil	27.4%	24.7%	20.1%	1.23×	4.05
Brighton and Hove Albion to win to nil	7.7%	7.9%	17.1%	0.46×	12.65

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City by 1	22.5%	24.1%	19.1%	1.26×	4.15
Draw	20.0%	17.1%	24.8%	0.69×	5.86
Manchester City by 3+	19.8%	17.1%	10.9%	1.57×	5.86
Manchester City by 2	18.1%	17.1%	13.2%	1.29×	5.87
Brighton and Hove Albion by 1	12.1%	11.8%	16.7%	0.70×	8.51
Brighton and Hove Albion by 2	5.2%	7.2%	9.2%	0.78×	13.92
Brighton and Hove Albion by 3+	2.3%	2.7%	6.5%	0.42×	36.83