Manchester City v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 15 March 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 15
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 12
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
1.19 – 0.37
Goals − xG
-0.06 – -0.11
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester City win
52.1%
Draw
24.1%
Brighton and Hove Albion win
23.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDLWWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.7 xG
conceded 9
from 13.3 xG
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.90–1.23 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.02–1.23 | 2-1 10% | 63% | 61% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester City 2.06 xGBrighton and Hove Albion 2.11 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester City attacking right
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 5' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jack Hinshelwood |
| 10' |
 Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 17' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Estupiñán | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 23' |
Manchester City |
Sávio | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Omar Marmoush |
| 27' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jan Paul van Hecke | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Estupiñán |
| 28' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ilkay Gündogan |
| 31' |
Manchester City |
Sávio | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Omar Marmoush |
| 34' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Estupiñán |
| 37' |
Manchester City |
Ilkay Gündogan | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ilkay Gündogan |
| 40' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.24 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jack Hinshelwood |
| 42' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.26 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Webster |
| 47' |
Manchester City |
Abduqodir Khusanov | 0.00 | From Corner | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 50' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Manchester City |
Ilkay Gündogan | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Georginio Rutter |
| 60' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Baleba |
| 62' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Baleba |
| 69' |
Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ilkay Gündogan |
| 73' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bernardo Silva |
| 78' |
Manchester City |
Nico González | 0.27 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Ilkay Gündogan |
| 78' |
Manchester City |
Rúben Dias | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 79' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Jack Hinshelwood | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 81' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | João Pedro |
Players
Manchester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.89 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Nico González DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Rúben Dias DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Ilkay Gündogan DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.12 | 0.41 | 0.81 |
| Omar Marmoush AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| Abduqodir Khusanov DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Rico Lewis DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Stefan Ortega Moreno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josko Gvardiol DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Jéremy Doku AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Sávio AMR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Bernardo Silva Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Phil Foden Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin De Bruyne Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Baleba DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.51 | 0.09 | 0.68 |
| João Pedro FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.49 | 1.23 |
| Jack Hinshelwood DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.59 | 0.87 |
| Estupiñán DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.44 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Adam Webster DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.44 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Kaoru Mitoma AML | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.09 | 1.06 |
| Yankuba Minteh AMR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.42 |
| Diego Gómez DMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Georginio Rutter AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Danny Welbeck Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Yasin Ayari Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brajan Gruda Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Simon Adingra Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mats Wieffer Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |