Manchester City v Burnley — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 27 September 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 11
On target
8 – 2
Shots in box
13 – 5
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.58 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+1.78 – +0.49
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester City win
66.2%
Draw
19.2%
Burnley win
14.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDLWWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.7 xG
conceded 9
from 13.3 xG
Burnley are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLLLLLDLD last 10
scored 6
from 10.4 xG
conceded 19
from 20.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.20–0.93 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.79–0.80 | 2-0 11% | 70% | 52% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester City 3.22 xGBurnley 0.51 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester City attacking right
Burnley attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Manchester City |
Josko Gvardiol | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Phil Foden |
| 10' |
Manchester City |
Nico O'Reilly | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 10' |
Manchester City |
Sávio | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 11' |
 Burnley |
Maxime Estève | 0.00 | Open Play | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 11' |
Manchester City |
Jéremy Doku | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Erling Haaland |
| 20' |
Manchester City |
Tijjani Reijnders | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 22' |
Burnley |
Kyle Walker | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Josh Cullen |
| 24' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.47 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nico González |
| 24' |
Manchester City |
Jéremy Doku | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 24' |
Manchester City |
Nico González | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 29' |
Burnley |
Josh Laurent | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 29' |
Burnley |
Loum Tchaouna | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lyle Foster |
| 37' |
Burnley |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Quilindschy Hartman |
| 39' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Josko Gvardiol |
| 43' |
Burnley |
Lyle Foster | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hjalmar Ekdal |
| 45' |
Manchester City |
Josko Gvardiol | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 45' |
Manchester City |
Matheus Nunes | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Burnley |
Lyle Foster | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jaidon Anthony |
| 52' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Phil Foden |
| 55' |
Burnley |
Lyle Foster | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Jaidon Anthony |
| 55' |
Burnley |
Quilindschy Hartman | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jaidon Anthony |
| 56' |
Burnley |
Maxime Estève | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Manchester City |
Tijjani Reijnders | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nico González |
| 60' |
Manchester City |
Matheus Nunes | 0.52 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Erling Haaland |
| 64' |
Burnley |
Maxime Estève | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 69' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nico O'Reilly |
| 72' |
Manchester City |
Tijjani Reijnders | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nico O'Reilly |
| 74' |
Manchester City |
Jéremy Doku | 0.19 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nathan Aké |
| 85' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 86' |
Manchester City |
Nathan Aké | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Phil Foden |
| 89' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.54 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jéremy Doku |
| 92' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Burnley
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaidon Anthony ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 0.36 |
| Josh Laurent DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Kyle Walker DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Quilindschy Hartman DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| Maxime Estève DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Martin Dubravka GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Florentino Luís MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Hjalmar Ekdal DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| Lyle Foster FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.07 | 0.46 |
| Josh Cullen MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Loum Tchaouna MR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chimuanya Ugochukwu Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Armando Broja Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hannibal Mejbri Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bashir Humphreys Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Manchester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland FW | 90 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 1.74 | 0.64 | 1.90 |
| Jéremy Doku ML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 1.42 |
| Matheus Nunes DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Nico González DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.50 | 1.02 |
| Rúben Dias DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Phil Foden MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.88 |
| Tijjani Reijnders MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Nico O'Reilly DL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.96 |
| Josko Gvardiol DC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.74 |
| Sávio MR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Oscar Bobb Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Nathan Aké Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| Rico Lewis Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bernardo Silva Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |