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Manchester City v Crystal Palace — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 16 December 2023 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

2–2
2.42 – 1.65 xG
Shots
19 – 5
On target
9 – 2
Shots in box
12 – 2
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.33
Set-piece xG
0.26 – 0.82
Goals − xG
-0.42 – +0.35
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.71.42.02.70'15'30'45'60'75'90'Jack Grealish 23' — goalRico Lewis 53' — goalJean-Philippe Mateta 75' — goalMichael Olise 94' — goal
Manchester City 2.42 xGCrystal Palace 1.65 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Julián Álvarez 4' — Saved Shot (0.22 xG, Open Play)Rodri 5' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Rúben Dias 5' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, From Corner)Rúben Dias 9' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Rodri 10' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Rodri 15' — Blocked Shot (0.41 xG, Open Play)Jeffrey Schlupp 20' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Nathan Aké 22' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jack Grealish 23' — Goal (0.36 xG, Open Play)Josko Gvardiol 28' — Saved Shot (0.36 xG, Open Play)Nathan Aké 32' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Josko Gvardiol 35' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Rico Lewis 35' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Kyle Walker 36' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Phil Foden 40' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Michael Olise 43' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)Rico Lewis 53' — Goal (0.52 xG, Open Play)Josko Gvardiol 57' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Bernardo Silva 62' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Nathan Aké 66' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Jean-Philippe Mateta 75' — Goal (0.74 xG, Open Play)Bernardo Silva 86' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Naouirou Ahamada 91' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Michael Olise 94' — Goal (0.76 xG, )
Manchester City attacking right Crystal Palace attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Manchester City Julián Álvarez 0.22 Open Play Saved Shot Kyle Walker
5' Manchester City Rodri 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Julián Álvarez
5' Manchester City Rúben Dias 0.12 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Nathan Aké
9' Manchester City Rúben Dias 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Rico Lewis
10' Manchester City Rodri 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Rico Lewis
15' Manchester City Rodri 0.41 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Rico Lewis
20' Crystal Palace Jeffrey Schlupp 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Michael Olise
22' Manchester City Nathan Aké 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Rodri
23' Manchester City Jack Grealish 0.36 Open Play Right Foot Goal Phil Foden
28' Manchester City Josko Gvardiol 0.36 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Rúben Dias
32' Manchester City Nathan Aké 0.02 Set Piece Missed Shot Bernardo Silva
35' Manchester City Josko Gvardiol 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
35' Manchester City Rico Lewis 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Jack Grealish
36' Manchester City Kyle Walker 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jack Grealish
40' Manchester City Phil Foden 0.01 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot Josko Gvardiol
43' Crystal Palace Michael Olise 0.06 Direct Freekick Left Foot Missed Shot
53' Manchester City Rico Lewis 0.52 Open Play Right Foot Goal
57' Manchester City Josko Gvardiol 0.02 From Corner Saved Shot Julián Álvarez
62' Manchester City Bernardo Silva 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
66' Manchester City Nathan Aké 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
75' Crystal Palace Jean-Philippe Mateta 0.74 Open Play Right Foot Goal Jeffrey Schlupp
86' Manchester City Bernardo Silva 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Rico Lewis
91' Crystal Palace Naouirou Ahamada 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Michael Olise
94' Crystal Palace Michael Olise 0.76 Left Foot Goal

Players

Manchester City

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Rico Lewis DMC 90 1 0 2 4 0.54 0.53 1.28
Rodri DMC 90 0 0 3 1 0.54 0.02 0.89
Josko Gvardiol DL 90 0 0 3 1 0.44 0.01 0.47
Jack Grealish AML 90 1 0 1 2 0.36 0.04 0.80
Julián Álvarez FW 90 0 0 1 2 0.22 0.08 0.58
Rúben Dias DC 90 0 0 2 1 0.13 0.36 1.49
Nathan Aké DC 90 0 0 3 1 0.08 0.12 0.64
Bernardo Silva AMR 90 0 0 2 1 0.07 0.02 0.74
Kyle Walker DR 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.22 1.06
Phil Foden AMC 90 0 1 1 1 0.01 0.36 0.43
Ederson GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
John Stones Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Crystal Palace

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Michael Olise MR 90 1 0 2 2 0.82 0.09 0.09
Jean-Philippe Mateta FW 90 1 0 1 0 0.74 0.00 0.74
Tyrick Mitchell DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Nathaniel Clyne DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dean Henderson GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Chris Richards MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Joachim Andersen DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Marc Guehi DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.80
Jeffrey Schlupp ML 86 0 1 1 1 0.04 0.74 0.78
Jairo Riedewald MC 86 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.74
David Ozoh Sub 57 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.74
Joel Ward DC 33 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Naouirou Ahamada Sub 4 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Matheus França Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Eberechi Eze Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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