Manchester City v Everton — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 18 October 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 5
On target
7 – 1
Shots in box
16 – 4
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.41 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.55 – -0.79
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester City win
55.6%
Draw
26.4%
Everton win
18.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDLWWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.7 xG
conceded 9
from 13.3 xG
Everton have scored 15 from 13.7 expected and conceded 18 from 18.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLDDLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 13.7 xG
conceded 18
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.57–0.78 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.88–0.89 | 1-0 12% | 52% | 50% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester City 2.55 xGEverton 0.79 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester City attacking right
Everton attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 Manchester City |
Nico O'Reilly | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nico González |
| 13' |
 Everton |
Beto | 0.64 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Iliman Ndiaye |
| 14' |
Manchester City |
Sávio | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Matheus Nunes |
| 15' |
Manchester City |
Matheus Nunes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nico González |
| 17' |
Manchester City |
Tijjani Reijnders | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Phil Foden |
| 23' |
Manchester City |
Tijjani Reijnders | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 24' |
Everton |
Carlos Alcaraz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jake O'Brien |
| 30' |
Manchester City |
Tijjani Reijnders | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 40' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 41' |
Manchester City |
Jéremy Doku | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tijjani Reijnders |
| 44' |
Manchester City |
Nathan Aké | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Phil Foden |
| 47' |
Manchester City |
Nico O'Reilly | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 47' |
Manchester City |
Sávio | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tijjani Reijnders |
| 57' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.34 | Open Play | — | Goal | Nico O'Reilly |
| 60' |
Everton |
James Garner | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Sávio |
| 69' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matheus Nunes |
| 72' |
Manchester City |
Oscar Bobb | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bernardo Silva |
| 76' |
Everton |
Merlin Röhl | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Iliman Ndiaye |
| 79' |
Manchester City |
Nico O'Reilly | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Sávio |
| 91' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Phil Foden |
| 91' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 91' |
Manchester City |
Mathis Cherki | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.33 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mathis Cherki |
Players
Manchester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 1.30 |
| Nathan Aké DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 1.37 |
| Phil Foden MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.54 | 1.59 |
| Matheus Nunes DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 1.55 |
| Rúben Dias DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.22 |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Nico González DMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.95 |
| Nico O'Reilly DL | 87 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.34 | 0.87 |
| Sávio MR | 87 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.23 | 0.57 |
| Jéremy Doku ML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.38 | 0.23 | 0.61 |
| Tijjani Reijnders MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.43 | 1.02 |
| Oscar Bobb Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Bernardo Silva Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.27 |
| Mathis Cherki Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| Rico Lewis Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mateo Kovacic Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Garner DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jake O'Brien DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Michael Keane DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Iliman Ndiaye AMR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall AMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Beto FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Carlos Alcaraz AML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Idrissa Gueye DMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Merlin Röhl Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Tim Iroegbunam Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Thierno Barry Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dwight McNeil Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyler Dibling Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |