Manchester City v Fulham — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 21 November 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Manchester City

15:00 UTC

Fulham

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 23 Oct, 10:58 · 700h before kick-off

Manchester City win

72.7%

model 70.8%

Draw

17.3%

model 16.4%

Fulham win

9.9%

model 12.8%

731710

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (94 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 9.3%
2-0 9.3%
3-1 7.9%
3-0 7.9%
1-1 7.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	68.9%	Under 2.5	31.1%
BTTS yes	58.4%	BTTS no	41.6%
Manchester City 1+	92.2%	Manchester City 2+	72.3%
Fulham 1+	63.4%	Fulham 2+	26.6%

Expected goals 2.55 – 1.00. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

95/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

100%

★ Best pick

Manchester City to lead by 2 at any time

Lead at any time · usually 30%

59.4% fair odds 1.68

strong signal · 890 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Fulham not to score in both halves

Score both halves · usually 77%

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 828 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Manchester City carry the stronger rating, 1874 Elo against 1535.
Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.
At home Manchester City average 2.54 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Manchester City have an estimated 72.7% win probability, against 17.3% for the draw and 9.9% for Fulham. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.55 for Manchester City and 1.00 for Fulham.

Why Manchester City

Manchester City carry the stronger rating, 1874 Elo against 1535. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five. At home Manchester City average 2.54 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 17.3%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Fulham can win

Away from home Fulham average 1.18 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Manchester City were missing 1.07 expected goal involvements a match against 0.73.

Key players

Manchester City's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Erling Haaland (0.87), Mathis Cherki (0.41), Phil Foden (0.38). Fulham's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Gonzalo García (0.56), Raúl Jiménez (0.36), Alex Iwobi (0.30).

Availability

1 of Manchester City's top three contributors did not start their last match. 1 of Fulham's top three contributors did not start their last match. Fulham had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.11 expected goal involvements a match. 27% of Fulham's last eleven are new to the club this window. Reported unavailable for Fulham: Ryan Sessegnon (suspended).

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Manchester City: 60% possession, 15.2 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Fulham: 56% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 13.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-23 14:52 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-23 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Manchester City are the model's most likely outcome at 72.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.3%. Confidence 95/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Manchester City are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WDLWWWWWWW last 10 scored 24 from 21.3 xG conceded 10 from 13.9 xG

Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LDWLLLDDLW last 10 scored 10 from 16.5 xG conceded 12 from 14.6 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	711613	2.55–1.00	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	701910	2.22–0.74	2-0 13%	57%	48%
dc-xg	711613	2.59–1.04	2-1 9%	70%	60%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to win	70.1%	73.5%	43.0%	1.71×	1.36
Draw	17.2%	19.4%	24.8%	0.78×	5.16
Fulham to win	12.7%	13.5%	32.3%	0.42×	7.42

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City & not both score	35.9%	33.3%	20.1%	1.65×	3.01
Manchester City & both teams score	34.2%	29.6%	22.9%	1.29×	3.37
Draw & both teams score	13.7%	13.3%	20.0%	0.67×	7.53
Fulham & both teams score	7.3%	8.3%	15.3%	0.54×	12.01
Fulham & not both score	5.4%	8.3%	17.1%	0.49×	12.02
Draw & not both score	3.5%	4.9%	4.9%	0.98×	20.59

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City & over 1.5	61.5%	54.6%	36.6%	1.49×	1.83
Manchester City & over 2.5	51.3%	48.8%	30.3%	1.61×	2.05
Manchester City & under 3.5	36.6%	34.9%	26.5%	1.31×	2.87
Manchester City & over 3.5	33.4%	30.8%	16.5%	1.87×	3.25
Manchester City & under 2.5	18.8%	18.0%	12.8%	1.41×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	13.7%	12.8%	20.0%	0.64×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	11.5%	12.8%	16.3%	0.79×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	11.5%	12.8%	16.3%	0.79×	7.79
Fulham & over 1.5	9.4%	7.9%	25.3%	0.31×	12.63
Fulham & under 3.5	9.0%	7.9%	21.8%	0.36×	12.63
Manchester City & under 1.5	8.5%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.63
Fulham & over 2.5	7.9%	7.9%	19.8%	0.40×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.7%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.7%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Fulham & under 2.5	4.8%	4.8%	12.6%	0.38×	20.81
Draw & under 1.5	3.5%	4.8%	4.9%	0.97×	20.82
Fulham & under 1.5	3.3%	4.8%	7.1%	0.68×	20.82
Fulham & over 3.5	3.7%	4.8%	10.6%	0.46×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (1UP)	80.6%	87.2%	62.0%	1.41×	1.15
Fulham (1UP)	31.1%	32.7%	51.5%	0.64×	3.06

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (2UP)	70.1%	80.5%	44.7%	1.80×	1.24
Fulham (2UP)	12.7%	14.1%	34.5%	0.41×	7.10

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to win 2nd half	50.9%	51.0%	36.2%	1.41×	1.96
2nd half drawn	29.5%	25.9%	31.2%	0.83×	3.86
Fulham to win 2nd half	19.6%	18.3%	32.7%	0.56×	5.46

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham under 1.5 in 2nd half	85.5%	86.9%	79.9%	1.09×	1.15
Fulham under 0.5 in 2nd half	51.3%	52.4%	42.2%	1.24×	1.91
Fulham over 0.5 in 2nd half	48.7%	47.6%	57.8%	0.82×	2.10
Fulham over 1.5 in 2nd half	14.5%	13.1%	20.1%	0.65×	7.63

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City over 0.5 in 2nd half	71.9%	74.0%	58.3%	1.27×	1.35
Manchester City under 1.5 in 2nd half	63.8%	63.4%	75.2%	0.84×	1.58
Manchester City over 1.5 in 2nd half	36.2%	36.6%	24.8%	1.48×	2.73
Manchester City under 0.5 in 2nd half	28.1%	26.0%	41.7%	0.62×	3.84

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (+0.5)	87.3%	88.5%	67.7%	1.31×	1.13
Fulham (+2.5)	72.9%	73.7%	89.1%	0.83×	1.36
Manchester City (-0.5)	70.1%	73.6%	43.0%	1.71×	1.36
Fulham (+1.5)	52.4%	52.4%	76.0%	0.69×	1.91
Manchester City (-1.5)	47.6%	47.6%	24.0%	1.98×	2.10
Fulham (+0.5)	29.9%	26.4%	57.0%	0.46×	3.79
Manchester City (-2.5)	27.1%	26.3%	10.9%	2.42×	3.80
Fulham (-0.5)	12.7%	11.5%	32.3%	0.36×	8.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham to concede	91.0%	91.8%	78.1%	1.18×	1.09
Fulham clean sheet	9.0%	8.2%	21.9%	0.37×	12.19

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham to concede in 1st half	68.1%	70.9%	51.2%	1.39×	1.41
Fulham clean sheet in 1st half	31.9%	29.1%	48.8%	0.60×	3.44

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham to concede in 2nd half	71.9%	70.9%	58.3%	1.22×	1.41
Fulham clean sheet in 2nd half	28.1%	29.1%	41.7%	0.70×	3.44

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham under 6.5 corners	88.7%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Fulham under 5.5 corners	80.5%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Fulham under 4.5 corners	68.4%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Fulham over 2.5 corners	66.2%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Fulham under 3.5 corners	52.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Fulham over 3.5 corners	47.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Fulham under 2.5 corners	33.8%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Fulham over 4.5 corners	31.6%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Fulham over 5.5 corners	19.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
Fulham over 6.5 corners	11.3%	14.8%	—	—	6.78

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham under 3.5 goals	98.5%	97.5%	94.6%	1.03×	1.03
Fulham under 2.5 goals	93.2%	92.3%	85.1%	1.09×	1.08
Fulham under 1.5 goals	76.1%	76.2%	60.7%	1.26×	1.31
Fulham over 0.5 goals	60.6%	63.2%	75.0%	0.84×	1.58
Fulham under 0.5 goals	39.4%	36.8%	25.0%	1.48×	2.71
Fulham over 1.5 goals	23.9%	23.8%	39.3%	0.60×	4.21
Fulham over 2.5 goals	6.8%	7.7%	14.9%	0.51×	13.06
Fulham over 3.5 goals	1.5%	2.5%	5.4%	0.47×	39.96

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham under 1.5 in 1st half	97.1%	96.1%	89.3%	1.08×	1.04
Fulham under 0.5 in 1st half	76.8%	75.1%	59.7%	1.26×	1.33
Fulham over 0.5 in 1st half	23.2%	24.9%	40.3%	0.62×	4.02
Fulham over 1.5 in 1st half	2.9%	3.9%	10.7%	0.36×	25.95

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham scores equally in both	46.7%	47.8%	37.5%	1.27×	2.09
Fulham scores more in 2nd half	40.4%	43.6%	40.8%	1.07×	2.29
Fulham scores more in 1st half	13.0%	11.3%	21.8%	0.52×	8.88

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (away no bet)	80.3%	82.5%	63.4%	1.30×	1.21
Draw (away no bet)	19.7%	17.5%	36.6%	0.48×	5.71

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham even goals	57.8%	56.9%	53.4%	1.07×	1.76
Fulham odd goals	42.2%	43.1%	46.6%	0.92×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	76.3%	81.1%	80.0%	1.01×	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	23.7%	18.9%	20.0%	0.95×	5.29

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	75.0%	72.2%	70.2%	1.03×	1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals	25.0%	27.8%	29.8%	0.93×	3.60

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	70.2%	71.8%	61.5%	1.17×	1.39
Manchester City to score 2+ in a row	62.2%	60.0%	39.2%	1.53×	1.67
Either team to score 3+ in a row	35.6%	36.5%	26.1%	1.40×	2.74
Manchester City to score 3+ in a row	33.2%	29.2%	16.4%	1.78×	3.42
Fulham to score 2+ in a row	14.9%	12.1%	29.7%	0.41×	8.26
Fulham to score 3+ in a row	2.8%	2.6%	10.1%	0.25×	39.02

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City corners (+3.5)	95.8%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Manchester City corners (+2.5)	92.8%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Manchester City corners (+1.5)	88.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Manchester City corners (-1.5)	65.4%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Manchester City corners (-2.5)	55.4%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Fulham corners (+3.5)	54.6%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Manchester City corners (-3.5)	45.4%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Fulham corners (+2.5)	44.6%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Fulham corners (+1.5)	34.6%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Fulham corners (-1.5)	11.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Fulham corners (-2.5)	7.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Fulham corners (-3.5)	4.2%	4.3%	—	—	23.42

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	38.1%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
0-8 corners	33.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	28.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	76.1%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 12.5 corners	70.2%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 8.5 corners	66.9%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	61.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	57.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	52.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	47.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	42.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 11.5 corners	38.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 8.5 corners	33.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 12.5 corners	29.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	23.9%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-0	10.3%	11.5%	6.4%	1.78×	8.72
1-0	8.5%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.51
2-1	9.6%	7.4%	8.9%	0.83×	13.50
Any other score	9.9%	7.4%	4.4%	1.69×	13.50
1-1	7.9%	7.4%	11.5%	0.65×	13.51
3-0	8.3%	7.4%	5.0%	1.47×	13.51
3-1	7.7%	7.4%	5.4%	1.36×	13.51
4-0	5.0%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.29
0-0	3.5%	1.7%	4.9%	0.35×	58.30
0-1	3.3%	1.7%	7.1%	0.24×	58.30
0-2	1.5%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.31
0-3	0.5%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.32
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.60×	58.32
1-2	3.7%	1.7%	6.8%	0.25×	58.30
1-3	1.1%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.31
1-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.4%	1.22×	58.32
2-2	4.5%	1.7%	7.7%	0.22×	58.29
2-3	1.4%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.31
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.60×	58.32
3-2	3.6%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.30
3-3	1.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.31×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.47×	58.32
4-1	4.6%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.29
4-2	2.2%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.31
4-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.20×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (2nd half DNB)	72.2%	71.1%	52.5%	1.35×	1.41
Fulham (2nd half DNB)	27.8%	28.9%	47.5%	0.61×	3.46

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City leading at HT (DNB)	87.4%	87.1%	59.8%	1.46×	1.15
Fulham leading at HT (DNB)	12.6%	12.9%	40.2%	0.32×	7.77

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City or draw (1X)	87.3%	86.5%	67.7%	1.28×	1.16
Manchester City or Fulham (12)	82.8%	80.6%	75.2%	1.07×	1.24
Fulham or draw (X2)	29.9%	26.5%	57.0%	0.46×	3.78

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City or draw at HT	91.5%	91.9%	75.8%	1.21×	1.09
Manchester City or Fulham at HT	67.6%	67.1%	60.2%	1.12×	1.49
Fulham or draw at HT	41.0%	41.6%	64.0%	0.65×	2.40

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City or draw (1UP)	87.3%	91.9%	74.3%	1.24×	1.09
Fulham or draw (1UP)	31.1%	38.8%	65.3%	0.59×	2.58

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City or draw in 2nd half	80.4%	81.7%	67.3%	1.21×	1.22
Manchester City or Fulham in 2nd half	70.5%	74.1%	68.8%	1.08×	1.35
Fulham or draw in 2nd half	49.1%	49.0%	63.8%	0.77×	2.04

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	52.4%	50.2%	57.1%	0.88×	1.99
Neither half drawn	47.6%	49.8%	42.9%	1.16×	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (DNB)	84.6%	80.4%	57.1%	1.41×	1.24
Fulham (DNB)	15.4%	19.6%	42.9%	0.46×	5.10

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to score first	69.6%	69.7%	51.8%	1.35×	1.43
Fulham to score first	26.9%	27.8%	43.4%	0.64×	3.60
No goal scored	3.5%	4.3%	4.9%	0.86×	23.38

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	55.2%	55.0%	58.0%	0.95×	1.82
Not both teams to score	44.8%	45.0%	42.0%	1.07×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	47.2%	44.3%	46.7%	0.95×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	27.1%	33.3%	30.2%	1.10×	3.00
Not both score & over 2.5	17.7%	21.6%	11.9%	1.82×	4.64
Both score & under 2.5	7.9%	8.3%	11.5%	0.72×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	83.4%	82.6%	82.1%	1.01×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	16.6%	17.4%	17.9%	0.97×	5.75

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	65.0%	67.3%	68.6%	0.98×	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	35.0%	32.7%	31.4%	1.04×	3.06

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	54.7%	54.9%	55.8%	0.98×	1.82
Both score 2nd half only	29.5%	27.2%	24.7%	1.10×	3.68
Both score 1st half only	10.3%	10.7%	12.9%	0.83×	9.34
Both score in both halves	5.5%	6.8%	6.8%	0.99×	14.79

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.2%	83.3%	80.4%	1.04×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	15.8%	16.7%	19.6%	0.85×	6.00

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	64.6%	59.8%	61.5%	0.97×	1.67
A half without a goal	35.4%	40.2%	38.5%	1.04×	2.49

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	41.8%	42.1%	46.3%	0.91×	2.37
4-6 goals	37.6%	35.1%	32.7%	1.07×	2.85
0-1 goals	15.3%	20.2%	18.3%	1.10×	4.95
7+ goals	5.3%	7.6%	2.8%	2.71×	13.18

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham to score exactly 0	39.4%	35.9%	25.0%	1.44×	2.78
Fulham to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.9%	35.8%	1.00×	2.78
Fulham to score exactly 2	17.1%	19.6%	24.5%	0.80×	5.11
Fulham to score 3+	6.8%	8.5%	14.9%	0.57×	11.71

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to score 3+	43.3%	35.3%	22.9%	1.54×	2.83
Manchester City to score exactly 2	26.1%	26.5%	26.1%	1.02×	3.77
Manchester City to score exactly 1	21.6%	23.3%	29.3%	0.80×	4.29
Manchester City to score exactly 0	9.0%	10.3%	21.9%	0.47×	9.69

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City leading at HT	59.0%	58.4%	36.0%	1.62×	1.71
Draw at HT	32.4%	32.9%	39.8%	0.83×	3.04
Fulham leading at HT	8.5%	8.1%	24.2%	0.33×	12.37

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City -1: 1	47.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Manchester City -1: 2	29.9%	26.6%	—	—	3.77
Manchester City -1: X	22.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (0:1)	47.6%	46.2%	24.0%	1.92×	2.17
Fulham (0:1)	29.9%	27.1%	57.0%	0.47×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	22.4%	24.2%	19.0%	1.27×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham (0:2)	52.4%	58.0%	76.0%	0.76×	1.72
Manchester City (0:2)	27.1%	24.1%	10.9%	2.21×	4.16
Draw (0:2)	20.5%	20.3%	13.2%	1.54×	4.93

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham (0:3)	72.9%	77.7%	89.1%	0.87×	1.29
Draw (0:3)	14.1%	10.0%	7.6%	1.32×	10.02
Manchester City (0:3)	13.0%	10.0%	3.4%	2.95×	10.04

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham (0:4)	87.0%	91.9%	96.6%	0.95×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	7.7%	4.6%	2.1%	2.25×	21.60
Manchester City (0:4)	5.4%	4.6%	1.4%	3.27×	21.80

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (1:0)	87.3%	86.1%	67.7%	1.27×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	8.7%	6.9%	16.7%	0.41×	14.47
Fulham (1:0)	4.1%	3.3%	15.7%	0.21×	30.47

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (2:0)	95.9%	96.8%	84.3%	1.15×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	3.1%	2.3%	9.2%	0.25×	43.64
Fulham (2:0)	1.0%	2.3%	6.5%	0.35×	43.77

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.9%	48.8%	49.5%	0.98×	2.05
1st half highest scoring	28.0%	26.2%	25.9%	1.01×	3.81
Halves equal	22.1%	24.4%	24.7%	0.99×	4.09

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to concede	60.6%	63.6%	75.0%	0.85×	1.57
Manchester City clean sheet	39.4%	36.4%	25.0%	1.46×	2.75

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City clean sheet in 1st half	76.8%	78.0%	59.7%	1.31×	1.28
Manchester City to concede in 1st half	23.2%	22.0%	40.3%	0.55×	4.54

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City clean sheet in 2nd half	51.3%	52.5%	42.2%	1.24×	1.91
Manchester City to concede in 2nd half	48.7%	47.5%	57.8%	0.82×	2.10

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City over 2.5 corners	92.2%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Manchester City over 3.5 corners	84.2%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Manchester City over 4.5 corners	73.8%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Manchester City over 5.5 corners	62.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Manchester City over 6.5 corners	50.0%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Manchester City under 6.5 corners	50.0%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Manchester City under 5.5 corners	38.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Manchester City under 4.5 corners	26.2%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Manchester City under 3.5 corners	15.8%	19.0%	—	—	5.25
Manchester City under 2.5 corners	7.8%	10.8%	—	—	9.28

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City over 0.5 goals	91.0%	92.2%	78.1%	1.18×	1.08
Manchester City under 3.5 goals	77.6%	77.7%	91.5%	0.85×	1.29
Manchester City over 1.5 goals	69.4%	68.0%	48.9%	1.39×	1.47
Manchester City under 2.5 goals	56.7%	58.6%	77.1%	0.76×	1.71
Manchester City over 2.5 goals	43.3%	41.4%	22.9%	1.81×	2.42
Manchester City under 1.5 goals	30.6%	32.0%	51.1%	0.63×	3.12
Manchester City over 3.5 goals	22.4%	22.3%	8.5%	2.62×	4.49
Manchester City under 0.5 goals	9.0%	7.8%	21.9%	0.35×	12.87

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City under 1.5 in 1st half	68.3%	69.2%	84.4%	0.82×	1.45
Manchester City over 0.5 in 1st half	68.1%	69.2%	51.2%	1.35×	1.45
Manchester City under 0.5 in 1st half	31.9%	30.8%	48.8%	0.63×	3.24
Manchester City over 1.5 in 1st half	31.7%	30.8%	15.6%	1.98×	3.24

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City scores more in 2nd half	39.2%	37.8%	36.0%	1.05×	2.65
Manchester City scores more in 1st half	33.2%	33.2%	26.4%	1.26×	3.01
Manchester City scores equally in both	27.5%	27.7%	37.7%	0.74×	3.61

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	57.5%	56.4%	43.4%	1.30×	1.77
Fulham (home no bet)	42.5%	43.6%	56.6%	0.77×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City even goals	50.4%	50.7%	54.0%	0.94×	1.97
Manchester City odd goals	49.6%	49.3%	46.0%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	28.0%	28.3%	21.5%	1.31×	3.54
HT 0-0	24.5%	24.4%	28.1%	0.87×	4.10
HT 2-0	16.0%	18.6%	8.0%	2.33×	5.38
Any other HT score	11.1%	11.0%	5.4%	2.01×	9.12
HT 1-1	7.4%	6.9%	10.9%	0.64×	14.47
HT 0-1	6.5%	6.9%	14.8%	0.47×	14.49
HT 2-1	4.2%	2.4%	3.7%	0.64×	42.02
HT 1-2	1.0%	2.4%	2.9%	0.82×	42.23
HT 0-2	0.9%	2.4%	4.4%	0.54×	42.24
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.4%	1.0%	2.39×	42.26

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City at HT / Manchester City at FT	51.7%	53.6%	26.4%	2.03×	1.87
Draw at HT / Manchester City at FT	16.5%	16.7%	13.9%	1.21×	5.98
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	9.6%	6.0%	13.9%	0.44×	16.55
Draw at HT / Fulham at FT	6.4%	6.0%	12.3%	0.49×	16.64
Manchester City at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.0%	6.3%	0.95×	16.67
Fulham at HT / Fulham at FT	4.5%	3.5%	16.7%	0.21×	28.63
Fulham at HT / Draw at FT	2.2%	3.5%	4.8%	0.73×	28.71
Manchester City at HT / Fulham at FT	1.9%	3.5%	3.5%	1.01×	28.72
Fulham at HT / Manchester City at FT	1.9%	3.5%	2.9%	1.21×	28.72

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to score last	69.6%	70.6%	50.1%	1.41×	1.42
Fulham to score last	26.9%	27.5%	45.0%	0.61×	3.63
No goal scored	3.5%	4.3%	4.9%	0.86×	23.38

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.5%	95.7%	95.1%	1.01×	1.05
Manchester City to lead by 1 at any time	80.6%	87.3%	62.0%	1.41×	1.15
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	62.2%	61.4%	50.5%	1.21×	1.63
Manchester City to lead by 2 at any time	54.5%	50.9%	29.8%	1.71×	1.97
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	32.5%	29.8%	21.2%	1.41×	3.35
Fulham to lead by 1 at any time	31.1%	29.8%	51.5%	0.58×	3.36
Manchester City to lead by 3 at any time	30.7%	29.8%	13.2%	2.26×	3.36
Fulham to lead by 2 at any time	8.1%	6.7%	21.0%	0.32×	14.88
Fulham to lead by 3 at any time	1.8%	1.6%	8.1%	0.20×	62.95

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City most corners	74.5%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Fulham most corners	17.7%	19.2%	—	—	5.21
Corners level	7.8%	8.4%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.3%	83.4%	88.5%	0.94×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.3%	78.7%	79.0%	1.00×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.5%	72.4%	75.1%	0.96×	1.38
1-4 goals	72.0%	72.4%	77.9%	0.93×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.2%	63.3%	64.6%	0.98×	1.58
3-6 goals	59.6%	59.1%	55.7%	1.06×	1.69
1-3 goals	53.6%	53.2%	59.7%	0.89×	1.88
3-5 goals	52.7%	53.2%	51.9%	1.03×	1.88
2-3 goals	41.8%	43.6%	46.3%	0.94×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.4%	43.6%	41.3%	1.06×	2.30
4-6 goals	37.6%	39.2%	32.7%	1.20×	2.55
1-2 goals	31.5%	35.2%	36.7%	0.96×	2.84
4-5 goals	30.7%	35.2%	28.9%	1.22×	2.84
5-6 goals	19.2%	18.8%	14.5%	1.30×	5.31
7+ goals	5.3%	8.9%	2.8%	3.16×	11.28

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City never behind	65.3%	68.8%	48.5%	1.42×	1.45
Fulham never behind	15.9%	18.2%	38.0%	0.48×	5.50

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	49.1%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	50.9%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.0%	51.6%	53.5%	0.96×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.0%	48.4%	46.5%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.0%	51.9%	51.9%	1.00×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.0%	48.1%	48.1%	1.00×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.5%	95.4%	95.1%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	87.8%	87.6%	93.3%	0.94×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	84.7%	82.3%	81.7%	1.01×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	75.5%	77.3%	82.8%	0.93×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	64.9%	61.8%	58.5%	1.06×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	57.1%	58.6%	64.6%	0.91×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	42.9%	41.4%	35.4%	1.17×	2.42
Under 2.5 goals	35.1%	38.2%	41.6%	0.92×	2.62
Over 4.5 goals	24.5%	22.7%	17.2%	1.32×	4.40
Under 1.5 goals	15.3%	17.7%	18.3%	0.97×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	12.2%	12.4%	6.7%	1.86×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	3.5%	4.6%	4.9%	0.92×	21.87

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.3%	92.4%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	86.1%	86.7%	92.5%	0.94×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	80.9%	81.1%	76.2%	1.06×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	70.0%	67.5%	78.9%	0.85×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	55.0%	55.7%	46.0%	1.21×	1.79
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.0%	44.3%	54.0%	0.82×	2.26
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	30.0%	32.5%	21.1%	1.54×	3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	19.1%	18.9%	23.8%	0.79×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	13.9%	13.3%	7.5%	1.78×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.7%	7.6%	2.9%	2.60×	13.17

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	83.2%	85.8%	87.2%	0.98×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	75.5%	78.3%	71.9%	1.09×	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	58.9%	63.8%	64.2%	0.99×	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	41.1%	36.2%	35.8%	1.01×	2.77
Under 0.5 in 1st half	24.5%	21.7%	28.1%	0.77×	4.60
Over 2.5 in 1st half	16.8%	14.2%	12.8%	1.11×	7.05

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	85.6%	85.4%	84.7%	1.01×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	69.4%	68.9%	75.8%	0.91×	1.45
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	57.6%	54.9%	54.3%	1.01×	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	42.4%	45.1%	45.7%	0.99×	2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	30.6%	31.1%	24.2%	1.28×	3.22
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	14.4%	14.6%	15.3%	0.95×	6.85

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham not to score in both halves	88.7%	85.6%	76.9%	1.11×	1.17
Manchester City not to score in both halves	51.0%	55.2%	68.6%	0.80×	1.81
Manchester City to score in both halves	49.0%	44.8%	31.4%	1.43×	2.23
Fulham to score in both halves	11.3%	14.4%	23.1%	0.62×	6.97

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	55.2%	58.6%	58.0%	1.01×	1.71
Only Manchester City scores	35.9%	39.9%	20.1%	1.98×	2.51
Only Fulham scores	5.4%	7.1%	17.1%	0.42×	14.06
Neither team scores	3.5%	4.6%	4.9%	0.93×	21.71

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	19.7%	17.5%	23.3%	0.75×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	18.4%	17.5%	18.3%	0.95×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	12.3%	12.1%	10.6%	1.14×	8.25
6 or more goals	12.2%	12.1%	6.7%	1.82×	8.25
Exactly 1 goals	11.8%	12.1%	13.4%	0.90×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	3.5%	4.5%	4.9%	0.90×	22.39

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	34.4%	35.9%	36.2%	0.99×	2.79
No goals in 1st half	24.5%	21.5%	28.1%	0.76×	4.65
2 goals in 1st half	24.3%	21.5%	23.1%	0.93×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	16.8%	15.6%	12.8%	1.22×	6.40

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	57.6%	54.1%	54.3%	1.00×	1.85
1 goal in 2nd half	27.9%	29.2%	30.4%	0.96×	3.42
No goals in 2nd half	14.4%	14.4%	15.3%	0.94×	6.94

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham not to win both halves	98.3%	97.2%	91.3%	1.06×	1.03
Manchester City not to win both halves	69.9%	70.3%	86.4%	0.81×	1.42
Manchester City to win both halves	30.1%	29.7%	13.6%	2.18×	3.37
Fulham to win both halves	1.7%	2.8%	8.7%	0.32×	36.12

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to win either half	79.9%	80.1%	58.6%	1.37×	1.25
Fulham to win neither half	73.6%	73.1%	51.7%	1.41×	1.37
Fulham to win either half	26.4%	26.9%	48.3%	0.56×	3.72
Manchester City to win neither half	20.1%	19.9%	41.4%	0.48×	5.02

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fulham not to win to nil	94.6%	92.1%	82.9%	1.11×	1.09
Manchester City not to win to nil	64.1%	66.6%	79.9%	0.83×	1.50
Manchester City to win to nil	35.9%	33.4%	20.1%	1.66×	3.00
Fulham to win to nil	5.4%	7.9%	17.1%	0.46×	12.70

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City by 3+	27.1%	27.9%	10.9%	2.56×	3.59
Manchester City by 1	22.4%	24.1%	19.0%	1.27×	4.15
Manchester City by 2	20.5%	24.1%	13.2%	1.83×	4.15
Draw	17.2%	17.0%	24.8%	0.69×	5.87
Fulham by 1	8.7%	7.2%	16.7%	0.43×	13.90
Fulham by 2	3.1%	2.7%	9.2%	0.29×	36.81
Fulham by 3+	1.0%	2.7%	6.5%	0.42×	36.87