Manchester City v Leeds United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 November 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 9
On target
9 – 3
Shots in box
14 – 8
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.25
Set-piece xG
1.67 – 1.68
Goals − xG
-0.36 – -0.23
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester City win
75.7%
Draw
15.7%
Leeds United win
8.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDLWWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.7 xG
conceded 9
from 13.3 xG
Leeds United are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 18.3 xG
conceded 10
from 15.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.44–0.70 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.98–0.90 | 1-0 11% | 55% | 51% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester City 3.36 xGLeeds United 2.23 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester City attacking right
Leeds United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Matheus Nunes |
| 8' |
 Leeds United |
Pascal Struijk | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Manchester City |
Josko Gvardiol | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Phil Foden |
| 19' |
Manchester City |
Nico González | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 19' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nico O'Reilly |
| 21' |
Manchester City |
Rúben Dias | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Erling Haaland |
| 23' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nico O'Reilly |
| 24' |
Manchester City |
Josko Gvardiol | 0.65 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Nico O'Reilly |
| 24' |
Manchester City |
Nico O'Reilly | 0.71 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Tijjani Reijnders |
| 31' |
Leeds United |
Lukas Nmecha | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Wilfried Gnonto |
| 34' |
Manchester City |
Tijjani Reijnders | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Josko Gvardiol |
| 42' |
Manchester City |
Tijjani Reijnders | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 43' |
Manchester City |
Bernardo Silva | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 43' |
Manchester City |
Nico González | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 43' |
Manchester City |
Tijjani Reijnders | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Leeds United |
Ethan Ampadu | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Manchester City |
Nico O'Reilly | 0.16 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 48' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 55' |
Leeds United |
Pascal Struijk | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Ilia Gruev |
| 62' |
Manchester City |
Tijjani Reijnders | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bernardo Silva |
| 67' |
Leeds United |
Lukas Nmecha | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 67' |
Leeds United |
Lukas Nmecha | 0.63 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 85' |
Leeds United |
Gabriel Gudmundsson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 87' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 89' |
Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.23 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 90' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mathis Cherki |
| 94' |
Leeds United |
Jaka Bijol | 0.13 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Ilia Gruev |
Players
Manchester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phil Foden MC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.04 | 0.05 | 1.40 |
| Nico O'Reilly DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.87 | 1.10 | 0.73 |
| Josko Gvardiol DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.70 | 0.02 | 1.31 |
| Nico González MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 1.37 |
| Bernardo Silva AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.76 |
| Erling Haaland FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Rúben Dias DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1.10 |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Jéremy Doku AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.84 |
| Matheus Nunes DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.99 |
| Tijjani Reijnders MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.71 | 1.07 |
| Mathis Cherki Sub | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Omar Marmoush Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| John Stones Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Leeds United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Struijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ethan Ampadu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ao Tanaka MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Lucas Perri GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joe Rodon DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jayden Bogle DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ilia Gruev MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.54 |
| Lukas Nmecha FW | 85 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.46 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| James Justin DL | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Daniel James FWR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Wilfried Gnonto FWL | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin Sub | 41 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Jaka Bijol Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriel Gudmundsson Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Noah Okafor Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brenden Aaronson Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |