Manchester City v Leeds United — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 2 December 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Manchester City

20:00 UTC

Leeds United

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 921h before kick-off

Manchester City win

62.9%

model 63.6%

Draw

18.6%

model 19.8%

Leeds United win

18.5%

model 16.6%

631918

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (270 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 9.9%
2-1 9.9%
1-0 9.2%
1-1 9.2%
3-0 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	60.8%	Under 2.5	39.2%
BTTS yes	55.8%	BTTS no	44.2%
Manchester City 1+	88.3%	Manchester City 2+	63.2%
Leeds United 1+	63.2%	Leeds United 2+	26.4%

Expected goals 2.15 – 1.00. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

92/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Manchester City (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 43%

63.8% fair odds 1.57

strong signal · 1134 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Leeds United not to score in both halves

Score both halves · usually 77%

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 828 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Manchester City carry the stronger rating, 1851 Elo against 1654.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
At home Manchester City average 2.54 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Manchester City have an estimated 62.9% win probability, against 18.6% for the draw and 18.5% for Leeds United. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.15 for Manchester City and 1.00 for Leeds United.

Why Manchester City

Manchester City carry the stronger rating, 1851 Elo against 1654. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five. At home Manchester City average 2.54 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 18.6%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Leeds United can win

Away from home Leeds United average 1.54 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Manchester City were missing 0.77 expected goal involvements a match against 0.31.

Key players

Manchester City's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Erling Haaland (0.86), Mathis Cherki (0.41), Phil Foden (0.36). Leeds United's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Dominic Calvert-Lewin (0.57), Anton Stach (0.29), Lukas Nmecha (0.23).

Availability

1 of Manchester City's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Manchester City's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Leeds United's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Leeds United's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Manchester City: 60% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.39 xG a match from set pieces. Leeds United: 48% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.64 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Manchester City are the model's most likely outcome at 62.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 9.9%. Confidence 92/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Manchester City are conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DLWWWWWWWL last 10 scored 22 from 21.6 xG conceded 12 from 14.1 xG

Leeds United are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DWLWDDWDLD last 10 scored 11 from 14.4 xG conceded 10 from 16.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	642017	2.15–1.00	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	652213	2.02–0.81	2-0 12%	54%	49%
dc-xg	602119	2.10–1.10	2-1 10%	62%	59%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to win	62.8%	58.2%	43.0%	1.36×	1.72
Draw	19.9%	19.4%	24.7%	0.78×	5.15
Leeds United to win	17.3%	19.4%	32.4%	0.60×	5.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City & both teams score	31.6%	29.6%	22.9%	1.29×	3.38
Manchester City & not both score	31.2%	29.6%	20.1%	1.47×	3.38
Draw & both teams score	15.8%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.57
Leeds United & both teams score	9.8%	8.3%	15.3%	0.55×	12.00
Leeds United & not both score	7.5%	8.3%	17.2%	0.48×	12.01
Draw & not both score	4.1%	4.9%	4.9%	0.99×	20.54

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City & over 1.5	54.0%	48.9%	36.6%	1.33×	2.04
Manchester City & over 2.5	44.5%	40.3%	30.2%	1.33×	2.48
Manchester City & under 3.5	35.0%	34.9%	26.6%	1.31×	2.87
Manchester City & over 3.5	27.8%	26.1%	16.4%	1.59×	3.84
Manchester City & under 2.5	18.3%	18.0%	12.8%	1.40×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	15.8%	18.0%	19.9%	0.91×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	13.3%	12.8%	16.3%	0.79×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	13.3%	12.8%	16.3%	0.79×	7.79
Leeds United & over 1.5	13.1%	12.8%	25.3%	0.51×	7.79
Leeds United & under 3.5	12.0%	12.8%	21.9%	0.59×	7.79
Leeds United & over 2.5	10.9%	12.8%	19.7%	0.65×	7.79
Manchester City & under 1.5	8.8%	7.9%	6.4%	1.24×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.6%	7.9%	8.5%	0.93×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.6%	7.9%	8.5%	0.93×	12.63
Leeds United & under 2.5	6.5%	7.9%	12.7%	0.62×	12.63
Leeds United & over 3.5	5.3%	7.9%	10.5%	0.75×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	4.1%	4.8%	4.9%	0.97×	20.81
Leeds United & under 1.5	4.3%	4.8%	7.1%	0.67×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (1UP)	75.4%	78.4%	62.0%	1.27×	1.28
Leeds United (1UP)	36.5%	34.0%	51.5%	0.66×	2.94

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (2UP)	62.8%	68.5%	44.7%	1.53×	1.46
Leeds United (2UP)	17.3%	17.1%	34.5%	0.50×	5.84

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to win 2nd half	53.8%	52.2%	36.2%	1.44×	1.92
2nd half drawn	27.2%	26.0%	31.1%	0.84×	3.84
Leeds United to win 2nd half	19.0%	18.0%	32.8%	0.55×	5.55

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United under 1.5 in 2nd half	83.6%	84.3%	79.9%	1.06×	1.19
Leeds United over 0.5 in 2nd half	51.5%	52.7%	57.8%	0.91×	1.90
Leeds United under 0.5 in 2nd half	48.5%	47.4%	42.2%	1.12×	2.11
Leeds United over 1.5 in 2nd half	16.4%	15.7%	20.1%	0.78×	6.37

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City over 0.5 in 2nd half	75.9%	75.1%	58.3%	1.29×	1.33
Manchester City under 1.5 in 2nd half	58.3%	58.3%	75.3%	0.77×	1.72
Manchester City over 1.5 in 2nd half	41.7%	41.7%	24.7%	1.69×	2.40
Manchester City under 0.5 in 2nd half	24.1%	24.9%	41.7%	0.60×	4.01

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (+0.5)	82.7%	82.6%	67.6%	1.22×	1.21
Leeds United (+2.5)	79.4%	78.5%	89.2%	0.88×	1.27
Manchester City (-0.5)	62.8%	62.9%	43.0%	1.46×	1.59
Leeds United (+1.5)	60.4%	62.9%	76.0%	0.83×	1.59
Manchester City (-1.5)	39.6%	37.1%	24.0%	1.55×	2.70
Leeds United (+0.5)	37.2%	37.1%	57.0%	0.65×	2.70
Manchester City (-2.5)	20.6%	21.5%	10.8%	1.98×	4.65
Leeds United (-0.5)	17.3%	17.4%	32.4%	0.54×	5.73

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United to concede	88.4%	86.3%	78.0%	1.11×	1.16
Leeds United clean sheet	11.6%	13.7%	22.0%	0.62×	7.30

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United to concede in 1st half	51.9%	50.5%	51.2%	0.99×	1.98
Leeds United clean sheet in 1st half	48.1%	49.5%	48.8%	1.01×	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United to concede in 2nd half	75.9%	74.7%	58.3%	1.28×	1.34
Leeds United clean sheet in 2nd half	24.1%	25.3%	41.7%	0.61×	3.95

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United under 6.5 corners	94.0%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Leeds United under 5.5 corners	88.4%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Leeds United under 4.5 corners	78.7%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
Leeds United under 3.5 corners	64.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Leeds United over 2.5 corners	55.4%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Leeds United under 2.5 corners	44.6%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Leeds United over 3.5 corners	36.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Leeds United over 4.5 corners	21.3%	23.9%	—	—	4.18
Leeds United over 5.5 corners	11.7%	14.8%	—	—	6.78
Leeds United over 6.5 corners	6.0%	10.1%	—	—	9.90

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United under 3.5 goals	97.8%	97.5%	94.7%	1.03×	1.03
Leeds United under 2.5 goals	91.2%	92.3%	85.1%	1.08×	1.08
Leeds United under 1.5 goals	72.0%	71.8%	60.7%	1.18×	1.39
Leeds United over 0.5 goals	64.7%	63.2%	75.0%	0.84×	1.58
Leeds United under 0.5 goals	35.3%	36.8%	25.0%	1.47×	2.72
Leeds United over 1.5 goals	28.0%	28.2%	39.3%	0.72×	3.55
Leeds United over 2.5 goals	8.8%	7.7%	14.9%	0.52×	13.05
Leeds United over 3.5 goals	2.2%	2.5%	5.3%	0.47×	39.95

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United under 1.5 in 1st half	95.9%	96.1%	89.3%	1.08×	1.04
Leeds United under 0.5 in 1st half	72.7%	67.6%	59.8%	1.13×	1.48
Leeds United over 0.5 in 1st half	27.3%	32.4%	40.2%	0.81×	3.08
Leeds United over 1.5 in 1st half	4.1%	3.9%	10.7%	0.37×	25.33

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United scores equally in both	43.9%	43.5%	37.5%	1.16×	2.30
Leeds United scores more in 2nd half	41.4%	43.5%	40.9%	1.06×	2.30
Leeds United scores more in 1st half	14.7%	12.8%	21.7%	0.59×	7.81

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (away no bet)	75.9%	73.5%	63.5%	1.16×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	24.1%	26.5%	36.5%	0.72×	3.78

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United even goals	56.2%	56.9%	53.4%	1.07×	1.76
Leeds United odd goals	43.8%	43.1%	46.6%	0.92×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.1%	82.8%	80.1%	1.03×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.9%	17.2%	19.9%	0.87×	5.81

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	73.7%	67.7%	70.1%	0.97×	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	26.3%	32.3%	29.9%	1.08×	3.10

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	66.4%	62.4%	61.5%	1.02×	1.60
Manchester City to score 2+ in a row	55.3%	55.0%	39.1%	1.41×	1.82
Either team to score 3+ in a row	30.2%	29.0%	26.0%	1.12×	3.45
Manchester City to score 3+ in a row	26.6%	25.0%	16.4%	1.53×	4.00
Leeds United to score 2+ in a row	18.5%	16.2%	29.7%	0.55×	6.16
Leeds United to score 3+ in a row	4.0%	2.6%	10.0%	0.26×	38.40

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City corners (+3.5)	97.8%	95.7%	—	—	1.04
Manchester City corners (+2.5)	95.9%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Manchester City corners (+1.5)	92.7%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Manchester City corners (-1.5)	72.7%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Manchester City corners (-2.5)	63.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Manchester City corners (-3.5)	52.7%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Leeds United corners (+3.5)	47.3%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Leeds United corners (+2.5)	37.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Leeds United corners (+1.5)	27.3%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Leeds United corners (-1.5)	7.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Leeds United corners (-2.5)	4.1%	4.3%	—	—	23.44
Leeds United corners (-3.5)	2.2%	4.3%	—	—	23.50

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	37.6%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	33.6%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	28.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	74.2%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	72.2%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	66.4%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Over 8.5 corners	62.4%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	57.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	52.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	47.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 10.5 corners	42.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 8.5 corners	37.6%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	33.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	27.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	25.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	8.8%	7.4%	6.4%	1.16×	13.51
1-1	9.2%	7.4%	11.4%	0.65×	13.51
2-0	9.5%	7.4%	6.5%	1.14×	13.51
2-1	9.9%	7.4%	9.0%	0.83×	13.51
3-0	6.8%	7.4%	5.0%	1.48×	13.51
3-1	7.1%	7.4%	5.4%	1.36×	13.51
Any other score	7.1%	7.4%	4.4%	1.70×	13.51
2-2	5.2%	7.4%	7.6%	0.97×	13.51
1-2	4.8%	1.7%	6.8%	0.25×	58.29
0-0	4.1%	1.7%	4.9%	0.35×	58.30
0-1	4.3%	1.7%	7.1%	0.24×	58.30
0-2	2.2%	1.7%	5.7%	0.30×	58.31
0-3	0.8%	1.7%	2.5%	0.67×	58.31
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.1%	1.61×	58.32
1-3	1.7%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.31
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.4%	1.23×	58.32
2-3	1.8%	1.7%	2.5%	0.70×	58.31
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.7%	2.61×	58.32
3-2	3.7%	1.7%	3.0%	0.56×	58.30
3-3	1.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.32×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.48×	58.32
4-0	3.7%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.30
4-1	3.8%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.30
4-2	2.0%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.31
4-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.9%	1.90×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.22×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (2nd half DNB)	73.9%	71.4%	52.4%	1.36×	1.40
Leeds United (2nd half DNB)	26.1%	28.6%	47.6%	0.60×	3.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City leading at HT (DNB)	74.1%	74.3%	59.9%	1.24×	1.35
Leeds United leading at HT (DNB)	25.9%	25.7%	40.1%	0.64×	3.90

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City or draw (1X)	82.7%	80.6%	67.6%	1.19×	1.24
Manchester City or Leeds United (12)	80.1%	80.6%	75.3%	1.07×	1.24
Leeds United or draw (X2)	37.2%	41.8%	57.0%	0.73×	2.40

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City or draw at HT	85.4%	88.1%	75.8%	1.16×	1.14
Leeds United or draw at HT	58.2%	57.7%	63.9%	0.90×	1.73
Manchester City or Leeds United at HT	56.4%	57.6%	60.1%	0.96×	1.74

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City or draw (1UP)	82.7%	88.7%	74.2%	1.20×	1.13
Leeds United or draw (1UP)	37.2%	41.3%	65.2%	0.63×	2.42

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City or draw in 2nd half	81.0%	82.0%	67.2%	1.22×	1.22
Manchester City or Leeds United in 2nd half	72.8%	74.0%	68.9%	1.07×	1.35
Leeds United or draw in 2nd half	46.2%	47.8%	63.8%	0.75×	2.09

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.9%	58.8%	57.2%	1.03×	1.70
Neither half drawn	41.1%	41.2%	42.8%	0.96×	2.43

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (DNB)	78.4%	74.8%	57.0%	1.31×	1.34
Leeds United (DNB)	21.6%	25.2%	43.0%	0.59×	3.97

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to score first	64.7%	64.3%	51.8%	1.24×	1.56
Leeds United to score first	31.3%	27.6%	43.4%	0.64×	3.62
No goal scored	4.1%	4.3%	4.9%	0.88×	23.04

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	57.3%	55.0%	57.9%	0.95×	1.82
Not both teams to score	42.7%	45.0%	42.1%	1.07×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	48.1%	44.4%	46.6%	0.95×	2.25
Not both score & under 2.5	28.8%	33.3%	30.3%	1.10×	3.00
Not both score & over 2.5	13.9%	12.4%	11.8%	1.05×	8.08
Both score & under 2.5	9.2%	8.3%	11.4%	0.73×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	82.2%	82.6%	82.2%	1.01×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	17.8%	17.4%	17.8%	0.98×	5.74

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	60.9%	65.8%	68.6%	0.96×	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	39.1%	34.2%	31.4%	1.09×	2.93

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	52.2%	54.4%	55.9%	0.97×	1.84
Both score 2nd half only	33.6%	28.1%	24.7%	1.14×	3.56
Both score 1st half only	8.6%	6.9%	12.8%	0.53×	14.60
Both score in both halves	5.5%	6.8%	6.8%	0.99×	14.76

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	85.8%	85.3%	80.4%	1.06×	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	14.2%	14.7%	19.6%	0.75×	6.79

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	57.4%	57.0%	61.5%	0.93×	1.75
A half without a goal	42.6%	43.0%	38.5%	1.12×	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.2%	42.2%	46.4%	0.91×	2.37
4-6 goals	35.3%	35.1%	32.6%	1.08×	2.85
0-1 goals	17.1%	20.2%	18.3%	1.10×	4.95
7+ goals	4.4%	1.8%	2.8%	0.66×	54.09

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.9%	35.8%	1.00×	2.78
Leeds United to score exactly 0	35.3%	35.9%	25.0%	1.44×	2.78
Leeds United to score exactly 2	19.2%	19.6%	24.5%	0.80×	5.11
Leeds United to score 3+	8.8%	8.6%	14.9%	0.58×	11.68

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to score 3+	36.5%	35.6%	22.8%	1.56×	2.81
Manchester City to score exactly 2	26.9%	26.5%	26.1%	1.02×	3.77
Manchester City to score exactly 1	25.0%	23.3%	29.2%	0.80×	4.29
Manchester City to score exactly 0	11.6%	14.3%	22.0%	0.65×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.6%	42.4%	39.9%	1.06×	2.36
Manchester City leading at HT	41.8%	42.3%	36.1%	1.17×	2.36
Leeds United leading at HT	14.6%	11.9%	24.2%	0.49×	8.37

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City -1: 1	39.6%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Manchester City -1: 2	37.2%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Manchester City -1: X	23.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (0:1)	39.6%	37.4%	24.0%	1.56×	2.68
Leeds United (0:1)	37.2%	37.3%	57.0%	0.65×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	23.2%	24.2%	19.1%	1.27×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United (0:2)	60.4%	67.0%	76.0%	0.88×	1.49
Manchester City (0:2)	20.6%	20.3%	10.8%	1.87×	4.93
Draw (0:2)	18.9%	15.3%	13.2%	1.15×	6.55

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United (0:3)	79.4%	80.7%	89.2%	0.91×	1.24
Draw (0:3)	11.6%	9.9%	7.6%	1.31×	10.09
Manchester City (0:3)	9.0%	5.8%	3.4%	1.73×	17.20

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United (0:4)	91.0%	94.5%	96.6%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.7%	4.6%	2.1%	2.25×	21.61
Manchester City (0:4)	3.3%	1.2%	1.4%	0.88×	81.80

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (1:0)	82.7%	81.4%	67.6%	1.20×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	11.2%	12.7%	16.8%	0.76×	7.88
Leeds United (1:0)	6.1%	6.9%	15.7%	0.44×	14.50

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (2:0)	93.9%	94.0%	84.3%	1.11×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.4%	2.3%	9.3%	0.25×	43.61
Leeds United (2:0)	1.7%	2.3%	6.5%	0.35×	43.78

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	62.4%	62.4%	49.6%	1.26×	1.60
Halves equal	20.0%	19.7%	24.7%	0.80×	5.07
1st half highest scoring	17.6%	19.0%	25.8%	0.74×	5.25

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to concede	64.7%	63.7%	75.0%	0.85×	1.57
Manchester City clean sheet	35.3%	36.3%	25.0%	1.45×	2.76

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City clean sheet in 1st half	72.7%	66.8%	59.8%	1.12×	1.50
Manchester City to concede in 1st half	27.3%	33.2%	40.2%	0.83×	3.02

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to concede in 2nd half	51.5%	52.8%	57.8%	0.91×	1.90
Manchester City clean sheet in 2nd half	48.5%	47.2%	42.2%	1.12×	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City over 2.5 corners	92.7%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Manchester City over 3.5 corners	85.1%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Manchester City over 4.5 corners	75.0%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Manchester City over 5.5 corners	63.5%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Manchester City over 6.5 corners	51.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Manchester City under 6.5 corners	48.3%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Manchester City under 5.5 corners	36.5%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Manchester City under 4.5 corners	25.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Manchester City under 3.5 corners	14.9%	13.8%	—	—	7.26
Manchester City under 2.5 corners	7.3%	10.8%	—	—	9.30

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City over 0.5 goals	88.4%	87.3%	78.0%	1.12×	1.15
Manchester City under 3.5 goals	82.8%	82.2%	91.5%	0.90×	1.22
Manchester City over 1.5 goals	63.5%	63.6%	48.9%	1.30×	1.57
Manchester City under 2.5 goals	63.5%	63.6%	77.2%	0.82×	1.57
Manchester City under 1.5 goals	36.5%	36.4%	51.1%	0.71×	2.75
Manchester City over 2.5 goals	36.5%	36.4%	22.8%	1.59×	2.75
Manchester City over 3.5 goals	17.2%	17.8%	8.5%	2.10×	5.63
Manchester City under 0.5 goals	11.6%	12.7%	22.0%	0.58×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City under 1.5 in 1st half	83.3%	83.8%	84.5%	0.99×	1.19
Manchester City over 0.5 in 1st half	51.9%	50.3%	51.2%	0.98×	1.99
Manchester City under 0.5 in 1st half	48.1%	49.7%	48.8%	1.02×	2.01
Manchester City over 1.5 in 1st half	16.7%	16.2%	15.5%	1.04×	6.19

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City scores more in 2nd half	53.6%	58.8%	35.9%	1.64×	1.70
Manchester City scores equally in both	27.2%	27.8%	37.9%	0.74×	3.59
Manchester City scores more in 1st half	19.2%	15.7%	26.3%	0.60×	6.37

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	53.5%	51.4%	43.3%	1.19×	1.95
Leeds United (home no bet)	46.5%	48.6%	56.7%	0.86×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City even goals	50.7%	50.7%	54.2%	0.94×	1.97
Manchester City odd goals	49.3%	49.3%	45.9%	1.08×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	35.0%	33.3%	28.2%	1.18×	3.00
HT 1-0	25.6%	28.4%	21.6%	1.31×	3.52
HT 0-1	11.1%	11.0%	14.7%	0.75×	9.12
HT 2-0	9.4%	6.9%	8.0%	0.87×	14.43
HT 1-1	8.2%	6.9%	10.8%	0.64×	14.45
Any other HT score	4.2%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	41.93
HT 2-1	3.0%	2.4%	3.7%	0.64×	42.01
HT 0-2	1.8%	2.4%	4.4%	0.55×	42.09
HT 1-2	1.3%	2.4%	2.9%	0.83×	42.12
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.4%	1.0%	2.40×	42.18

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City at HT / Manchester City at FT	35.7%	40.8%	26.5%	1.54×	2.45
Draw at HT / Manchester City at FT	23.5%	21.7%	13.8%	1.57×	4.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.9%	12.6%	13.8%	0.92×	7.91
Draw at HT / Leeds United at FT	8.3%	6.1%	12.4%	0.49×	16.41
Leeds United at HT / Leeds United at FT	7.4%	6.1%	16.7%	0.36×	16.44
Manchester City at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.5%	6.3%	0.55×	28.81
Leeds United at HT / Manchester City at FT	3.6%	3.5%	2.9%	1.21×	28.84
Leeds United at HT / Draw at FT	3.7%	3.5%	4.8%	0.73×	28.84
Manchester City at HT / Leeds United at FT	1.7%	3.5%	3.5%	1.00×	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to score last	64.7%	62.4%	50.1%	1.25×	1.60
Leeds United to score last	31.3%	32.3%	45.0%	0.72×	3.09
No goal scored	4.1%	4.3%	4.9%	0.88×	23.04

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.9%	95.6%	95.1%	1.01×	1.05
Manchester City to lead by 1 at any time	75.4%	78.0%	62.0%	1.26×	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	57.5%	54.9%	50.5%	1.09×	1.82
Manchester City to lead by 2 at any time	46.9%	44.4%	29.8%	1.49×	2.25
Leeds United to lead by 1 at any time	36.5%	34.6%	51.5%	0.67×	2.89
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	26.8%	25.3%	21.1%	1.20×	3.95
Manchester City to lead by 3 at any time	24.0%	19.6%	13.1%	1.49×	5.10
Leeds United to lead by 2 at any time	11.0%	10.5%	21.0%	0.50×	9.54
Leeds United to lead by 3 at any time	2.7%	1.6%	8.1%	0.20×	62.30

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City most corners	81.2%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Leeds United most corners	12.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.57
Corners level	6.7%	8.3%	—	—	12.00

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.4%	87.4%	88.5%	0.99×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.5%	78.7%	79.0%	1.00×	1.27
1-4 goals	74.0%	72.4%	78.0%	0.93×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.4%	72.4%	75.1%	0.96×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.0%	63.3%	64.6%	0.98×	1.58
3-6 goals	57.6%	59.1%	55.6%	1.06×	1.69
1-3 goals	56.2%	59.1%	59.8%	0.99×	1.69
3-5 goals	51.5%	53.2%	51.8%	1.03×	1.88
2-3 goals	43.2%	43.6%	46.4%	0.94×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.1%	43.6%	41.2%	1.06×	2.29
4-6 goals	35.3%	39.2%	32.6%	1.20×	2.55
1-2 goals	33.9%	35.2%	36.8%	0.96×	2.84
4-5 goals	29.2%	30.2%	28.8%	1.05×	3.31
5-6 goals	17.5%	18.8%	14.5%	1.30×	5.31
7+ goals	4.4%	2.6%	2.8%	0.92×	39.06

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City never behind	59.4%	62.7%	48.5%	1.29×	1.59
Leeds United never behind	20.5%	24.8%	38.0%	0.65×	4.03

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	49.1%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	50.9%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.1%	57.6%	53.5%	1.08×	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	43.9%	42.4%	46.5%	0.91×	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.7%	51.9%	51.9%	1.00×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.3%	48.1%	48.1%	1.00×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.9%	95.4%	95.1%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	89.5%	87.6%	93.3%	0.94×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	82.9%	82.3%	81.7%	1.01×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	78.1%	77.3%	82.8%	0.93×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	62.0%	61.7%	58.3%	1.06×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	60.3%	61.7%	64.7%	0.95×	1.62
Over 3.5 goals	39.7%	38.3%	35.3%	1.08×	2.61
Under 2.5 goals	38.0%	38.3%	41.7%	0.92×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	21.9%	22.7%	17.2%	1.32×	4.40
Under 1.5 goals	17.1%	17.7%	18.3%	0.96×	5.66
Over 5.5 goals	10.5%	12.4%	6.7%	1.86×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	4.1%	4.6%	4.9%	0.93×	21.83

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.3%	97.2%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	88.2%	86.7%	92.6%	0.94×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	78.4%	75.9%	76.1%	1.00×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	73.4%	72.4%	79.0%	0.92×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	51.1%	51.9%	45.9%	1.13×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	48.9%	48.1%	54.1%	0.89×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	26.6%	27.6%	21.0%	1.32×	3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	21.6%	24.1%	23.9%	1.01×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	11.8%	13.3%	7.4%	1.78×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.7%	2.8%	2.9%	0.97×	35.53

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	91.0%	92.6%	87.3%	1.06×	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	71.7%	71.4%	64.3%	1.11×	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	65.0%	68.5%	71.8%	0.95×	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	35.0%	31.5%	28.2%	1.12×	3.17
Over 1.5 in 1st half	28.3%	28.6%	35.7%	0.80×	3.50
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.0%	7.4%	12.7%	0.58×	13.43

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	88.3%	85.5%	84.7%	1.01×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	63.7%	61.4%	75.8%	0.81×	1.63
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	63.3%	61.4%	54.3%	1.13×	1.63
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	36.7%	38.6%	45.7%	0.85×	2.59
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	36.3%	38.6%	24.2%	1.60×	2.59
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	11.7%	14.5%	15.3%	0.95×	6.90

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United not to score in both halves	85.9%	85.4%	77.0%	1.11×	1.17
Manchester City not to score in both halves	60.6%	63.1%	68.5%	0.92×	1.59
Manchester City to score in both halves	39.4%	36.9%	31.5%	1.17×	2.71
Leeds United to score in both halves	14.1%	14.6%	23.0%	0.63×	6.86

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	57.3%	58.7%	57.9%	1.01×	1.71
Only Manchester City scores	31.2%	33.3%	20.1%	1.65×	3.01
Only Leeds United scores	7.5%	7.1%	17.2%	0.42×	14.03
Neither team scores	4.1%	4.6%	4.9%	0.94×	21.62

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	20.9%	22.6%	23.4%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.8%	17.5%	18.2%	0.96×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	13.1%	12.1%	13.5%	0.90×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	11.4%	12.1%	10.6%	1.14×	8.25
6 or more goals	10.5%	12.1%	6.7%	1.82×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	4.1%	4.5%	4.9%	0.91×	22.36

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.7%	37.4%	36.2%	1.03×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	35.0%	35.7%	28.2%	1.27×	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	19.3%	15.7%	23.0%	0.68×	6.39
3+ goals in 1st half	9.0%	7.4%	12.7%	0.58×	13.43

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	63.3%	59.0%	54.3%	1.09×	1.70
1 goal in 2nd half	25.1%	29.3%	30.5%	0.96×	3.41
No goals in 2nd half	11.7%	14.3%	15.3%	0.94×	6.97

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United not to win both halves	97.2%	97.2%	91.4%	1.06×	1.03
Manchester City not to win both halves	77.5%	75.3%	86.4%	0.87×	1.33
Manchester City to win both halves	22.5%	24.7%	13.6%	1.81×	4.05
Leeds United to win both halves	2.8%	2.8%	8.6%	0.32×	35.86

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to win either half	73.1%	73.0%	58.6%	1.25×	1.37
Leeds United to win neither half	69.1%	67.8%	51.7%	1.31×	1.48
Leeds United to win either half	30.9%	32.2%	48.3%	0.67×	3.11
Manchester City to win neither half	26.9%	27.0%	41.4%	0.65×	3.70

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United not to win to nil	92.5%	92.1%	82.8%	1.11×	1.09
Manchester City not to win to nil	68.8%	69.7%	79.9%	0.87×	1.44
Manchester City to win to nil	31.2%	30.3%	20.1%	1.51×	3.30
Leeds United to win to nil	7.5%	7.9%	17.2%	0.46×	12.63

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City by 1	23.2%	24.1%	19.1%	1.26×	4.15
Manchester City by 3+	20.6%	24.1%	10.8%	2.22×	4.15
Draw	19.9%	17.1%	24.7%	0.69×	5.86
Manchester City by 2	18.9%	17.1%	13.2%	1.29×	5.87
Leeds United by 1	11.2%	11.7%	16.8%	0.70×	8.51
Leeds United by 2	4.4%	2.7%	9.3%	0.29×	36.79
Leeds United by 3+	1.7%	2.7%	6.5%	0.42×	36.88