Manchester City v Liverpool — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 9 November 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 7
On target
6 – 1
Shots in box
8 – 5
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.85 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+1.40 – -1.03
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester City win
47.4%
Draw
23.7%
Liverpool win
28.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDLWWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.7 xG
conceded 9
from 13.3 xG
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.83–1.39 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.55–1.59 | 1-1 11% | 61% | 63% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester City 1.60 xGLiverpool 1.03 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester City attacking right
Liverpool attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 12' |
 Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.76 | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 17' |
Manchester City |
Mathis Cherki | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 25' |
Manchester City |
Jéremy Doku | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 28' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Goal | Matheus Nunes |
| 30' |
Liverpool |
Florian Wirtz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 41' |
Liverpool |
Florian Wirtz | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 42' |
Manchester City |
Nico González | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 45' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Ekitike |
| 47' |
Manchester City |
Nico González | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Bernardo Silva |
| 51' |
Manchester City |
Mathis Cherki | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 53' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Manchester City |
Jéremy Doku | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bernardo Silva |
| 58' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Conor Bradley |
| 62' |
Manchester City |
Jéremy Doku | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nico O'Reilly |
| 74' |
Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Erling Haaland |
| 75' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 78' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 81' |
Manchester City |
Nico O'Reilly | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Phil Foden |
| 86' |
Manchester City |
Nico O'Reilly | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Omar Marmoush |
| 91' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matheus Nunes |
Players
Manchester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.81 | 0.11 | 0.35 |
| Nico O'Reilly DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 0.30 |
| Phil Foden MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.33 |
| Nico González MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Bernardo Silva MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.29 |
| Josko Gvardiol DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rúben Dias DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matheus Nunes DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.48 |
| Jéremy Doku FWL | 81 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.23 | 0.41 |
| Mathis Cherki FWR | 60 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Sávio Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Omar Marmoush Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Salah AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.59 | 0.12 | 1.03 |
| Florian Wirtz AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Conor Bradley DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| Giorgi Mamardashvili GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ryan Gravenberch DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexis Mac Allister DMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Hugo Ekitike FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Andrew Robertson DL | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cody Gakpo Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Milos Kerkez Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| Curtis Jones Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joseph Gomez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Federico Chiesa Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |