Manchester City v Liverpool — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 23 February 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 8
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
6 – 6
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.22
Goals − xG
-0.58 – +1.19
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester City win
32.0%
Draw
24.9%
Liverpool win
43.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDLWWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.7 xG
conceded 9
from 13.3 xG
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.48–1.75 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.56–2.03 | 1-2 9% | 70% | 69% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester City 0.58 xGLiverpool 0.81 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester City attacking right
Liverpool attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 2' |
 Manchester City |
Nico González | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 7' |
Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 7' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sávio |
| 13' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 22' |
Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nathan Aké |
| 29' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 36' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mohamed Salah |
| 41' |
Manchester City |
Kevin De Bruyne | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sávio |
| 45' |
Manchester City |
Nico González | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Omar Marmoush |
| 47' |
Manchester City |
Kevin De Bruyne | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Abduqodir Khusanov |
| 47' |
Manchester City |
Sávio | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 48' |
Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Josko Gvardiol |
| 57' |
Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 60' |
Liverpool |
Andrew Robertson | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 63' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 65' |
Manchester City |
Nico González | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sávio |
| 68' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sávio |
| 70' |
Manchester City |
Jéremy Doku | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Josko Gvardiol |
| 71' |
Manchester City |
Jéremy Doku | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 74' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 74' |
Manchester City |
Rico Lewis | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 82' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 83' |
Liverpool |
Ibrahima Konaté | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
Players
Manchester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéremy Doku ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.28 |
| Phil Foden FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Rico Lewis DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Sávio MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| Abduqodir Khusanov DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| Josko Gvardiol DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| Ederson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nico González DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Omar Marmoush MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.01 | 0.20 |
| Nathan Aké DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Kevin De Bruyne MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| James McAtee Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Rúben Dias Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ilkay Gündogan Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mateo Kovacic Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominik Szoboszlai FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.07 | 0.48 |
| Mohamed Salah AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Alexis Mac Allister DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Ryan Gravenberch DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alisson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Luis Díaz AMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Andrew Robertson DL | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Curtis Jones FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Wataru Endo Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Konstantinos Tsimikas Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cody Gakpo Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Harvey Elliott Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jarell Quansah Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |