Manchester City v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 14 September 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 13
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
11 – 8
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.47
Goals − xG
+0.99 – -1.55
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester City win
59.0%
Draw
22.4%
Manchester United win
18.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDLWWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.7 xG
conceded 9
from 13.3 xG
Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWWDWWLWD last 10
scored 20
from 20.9 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.86–0.94 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.09–1.05 | 2-1 10% | 61% | 57% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester City 2.01 xGManchester United 1.55 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester City attacking right
Manchester United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 3' |
 Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 17' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Goal | Jéremy Doku |
| 23' |
Manchester City |
Tijjani Reijnders | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 38' |
Manchester City |
Nico O'Reilly | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tijjani Reijnders |
| 52' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jéremy Doku |
| 54' |
Manchester City |
Bernardo Silva | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.24 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Jéremy Doku |
| 60' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Patrick Dorgu |
| 63' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bernardo Silva |
| 67' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.46 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Bernardo Silva |
| 72' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Patrick Dorgu |
| 72' |
Manchester United |
Manuel Ugarte | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kobbie Mainoo |
| 74' |
Manchester City |
Tijjani Reijnders | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Erling Haaland |
| 79' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Patrick Dorgu |
| 81' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kobbie Mainoo |
| 83' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 83' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.64 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 84' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.45 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 85' |
Manchester United |
Patrick Dorgu | 0.17 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' |
Manchester City |
Tijjani Reijnders | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 92' |
Manchester United |
Patrick Dorgu | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 93' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oscar Bobb |
Players
Manchester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tijjani Reijnders MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.05 | 0.69 |
| Phil Foden MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Nico O'Reilly DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Rúben Dias DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Abduqodir Khusanov DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Josko Gvardiol DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Bernardo Silva MR | 89 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| Erling Haaland FW | 88 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1.22 | 0.29 | 1.57 |
| Jéremy Doku ML | 78 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.77 | 0.83 |
| Rodri DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Nico González Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sávio Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oscar Bobb Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Nathan Aké Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Mbeumo AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.71 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Patrick Dorgu DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.10 | 0.37 |
| Amad Diallo Traore AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.65 | 0.83 |
| Bruno Fernandes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| Matthijs de Ligt DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Luke Shaw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Altay Bayindir GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Benjamin Sesko FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Manuel Ugarte MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Leny Yoro DC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Noussair Mazraoui DMR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Harry Maguire Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Kobbie Mainoo Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| Casemiro Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Joshua Zirkzee Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |