Manchester City v Napoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 24 November 2026 · EUR-Champions League · 2627

Champions League results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Manchester City

20:00 UTC

Napoli

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 21 Oct, 11:05 · 825h before kick-off

Manchester City win

72.8%

model 71.3%

Draw

17.4%

model 17.2%

Napoli win

9.8%

model 11.5%

731710

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (94 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 13.0%
1-0 12.4%
3-0 9.5%
2-1 9.4%
1-1 8.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	55.6%	Under 2.5	44.4%
BTTS yes	45.2%	BTTS no	54.8%
Manchester City 1+	88.7%	Manchester City 2+	64.1%
Napoli 1+	51.6%	Napoli 2+	16.5%

Expected goals 2.18 – 0.73. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

89/100

Data quality

80/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Draw (home no bet)

Home no bet · usually 32%

55.6% fair odds 1.80

strong signal · 458 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Manchester City (away no bet)

Away no bet · usually 77%

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 106 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Manchester City carry the stronger rating, 1874 Elo against 1660.
Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.
At home Manchester City average 2.54 xG a match.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Napoli were missing 1.50 expected goal involvements a match against 1.07.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Manchester City have an estimated 72.8% win probability, against 17.4% for the draw and 9.8% for Napoli. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.18 for Manchester City and 0.72 for Napoli.

Why Manchester City

Manchester City carry the stronger rating, 1874 Elo against 1660. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five. At home Manchester City average 2.54 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Napoli were missing 1.50 expected goal involvements a match against 1.07.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 17.4%. Draws run at 15% in this competition.

Why Napoli can win

Away from home Napoli average 1.92 xG a match.

Key players

Manchester City's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Erling Haaland (0.87), Mathis Cherki (0.41), Phil Foden (0.38). Napoli's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Rasmus Højlund (0.42), Scott McTominay (0.38), Kevin De Bruyne (0.35).

Availability

1 of Manchester City's top three contributors did not start their last match. 2 of Napoli's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Manchester City: 60% possession, 15.2 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Napoli: 56% possession, 16.2 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.25 xG a match from set pieces. Manchester City's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-21 11:56 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-21 15:05 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Manchester City are the model's most likely outcome at 72.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 13.0%. Confidence 89/100, data quality 80/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Manchester City are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WDLWWWWWWW last 10 scored 24 from 21.3 xG conceded 10 from 13.9 xG

Napoli are finishing below their chances — 3.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LWWWLLWDWL last 10 scored 16 from 19.2 xG conceded 10 from 10.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	711712	2.18–0.73	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	711811	2.06–0.66	1-0 14%	51%	42%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to win	70.6%	73.6%	51.0%	1.44×	1.36
Draw	18.0%	19.4%	15.6%	1.25×	5.16
Napoli to win	11.4%	13.5%	33.7%	0.40×	7.43

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City & not both score	45.5%	43.0%	24.5%	1.76×	2.33
Manchester City & both teams score	25.1%	25.2%	26.8%	0.94×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	12.0%	13.3%	10.7%	1.24×	7.54
Napoli & not both score	6.7%	8.3%	15.6%	0.53×	12.01
Draw & not both score	6.0%	8.3%	5.1%	1.63×	12.02
Napoli & both teams score	4.6%	4.9%	18.4%	0.26×	20.56

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City & over 1.5	56.5%	54.9%	42.9%	1.28×	1.82
Manchester City & under 3.5	46.9%	45.1%	26.8%	1.68×	2.22
Manchester City & over 2.5	42.6%	40.3%	36.7%	1.10×	2.48
Manchester City & under 2.5	28.0%	26.1%	14.5%	1.79×	3.84
Manchester City & over 3.5	23.8%	21.6%	24.5%	0.88×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	14.5%	12.8%	10.5%	1.23×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	14.5%	12.8%	10.5%	1.23×	7.79
Manchester City & under 1.5	14.1%	12.8%	8.4%	1.52×	7.79
Draw & over 1.5	12.0%	12.8%	10.7%	1.20×	7.79
Napoli & under 3.5	9.6%	7.9%	19.1%	0.41×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	6.0%	7.9%	5.1%	1.55×	12.63
Napoli & over 1.5	6.5%	7.9%	28.1%	0.28×	12.63
Napoli & under 2.5	6.3%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Napoli & over 2.5	5.0%	7.9%	23.7%	0.33×	12.63
Napoli & under 1.5	4.9%	4.8%	5.9%	0.82×	20.81
Draw & over 2.5	3.6%	4.8%	5.4%	0.90×	20.82
Draw & over 3.5	3.6%	4.8%	5.4%	0.90×	20.82
Napoli & over 3.5	1.7%	4.8%	14.8%	0.32×	20.83

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (1UP)	78.9%	79.0%	—	—	1.27
Napoli (1UP)	25.5%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (2UP)	70.6%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Napoli (2UP)	11.4%	13.9%	—	—	7.20

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to win 2nd half	56.0%	61.0%	—	—	1.64
2nd half drawn	31.3%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Napoli to win 2nd half	12.7%	11.4%	—	—	8.81

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 1.5 in 2nd half	93.9%	92.2%	—	—	1.09
Napoli under 0.5 in 2nd half	67.2%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Napoli over 0.5 in 2nd half	32.8%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
Napoli over 1.5 in 2nd half	6.1%	7.8%	—	—	12.78

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City over 0.5 in 2nd half	69.1%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Manchester City under 1.5 in 2nd half	67.2%	70.7%	—	—	1.42
Manchester City over 1.5 in 2nd half	32.8%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
Manchester City under 0.5 in 2nd half	30.9%	29.2%	—	—	3.42

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (+0.5)	88.6%	88.5%	66.3%	1.33×	1.13
Napoli (+2.5)	76.5%	78.5%	81.6%	0.96×	1.27
Manchester City (-0.5)	70.6%	73.6%	51.0%	1.44×	1.36
Napoli (+1.5)	55.1%	57.0%	68.4%	0.83×	1.75
Manchester City (-1.5)	44.9%	43.0%	31.6%	1.36×	2.33
Napoli (+0.5)	29.4%	26.4%	49.0%	0.54×	3.79
Manchester City (-2.5)	23.5%	21.5%	18.4%	1.17×	4.65
Napoli (-0.5)	11.4%	11.5%	33.7%	0.34×	8.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to concede	87.3%	86.3%	79.6%	1.08×	1.16
Napoli clean sheet	12.7%	13.7%	20.4%	0.67×	7.30

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to concede in 1st half	58.8%	57.0%	—	—	1.75
Napoli clean sheet in 1st half	41.2%	43.0%	—	—	2.33

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to concede in 2nd half	69.1%	66.0%	—	—	1.51
Napoli clean sheet in 2nd half	30.9%	34.0%	—	—	2.94

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 6.5 corners	85.8%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Napoli under 5.5 corners	77.2%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Napoli over 2.5 corners	67.7%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Napoli under 4.5 corners	65.0%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Napoli over 3.5 corners	50.4%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Napoli under 3.5 corners	49.6%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Napoli over 4.5 corners	35.0%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Napoli under 2.5 corners	32.3%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Napoli over 5.5 corners	22.8%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Napoli over 6.5 corners	14.2%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 3.5 goals	99.5%	97.5%	92.3%	1.06×	1.03
Napoli under 2.5 goals	97.0%	97.5%	79.1%	1.23×	1.03
Napoli under 1.5 goals	85.7%	87.8%	59.9%	1.46×	1.14
Napoli under 0.5 goals	51.6%	53.5%	29.3%	1.82×	1.87
Napoli over 0.5 goals	48.4%	46.5%	70.7%	0.66×	2.15
Napoli over 1.5 goals	14.3%	12.2%	40.1%	0.30×	8.19
Napoli over 2.5 goals	3.0%	2.5%	20.9%	0.12×	39.88
Napoli over 3.5 goals	0.5%	2.5%	7.7%	0.33×	40.01

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 1.5 in 1st half	97.1%	96.2%	—	—	1.04
Napoli under 0.5 in 1st half	76.7%	75.6%	—	—	1.32
Napoli over 0.5 in 1st half	23.3%	24.4%	—	—	4.10
Napoli over 1.5 in 1st half	2.9%	3.8%	—	—	26.13

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli scores equally in both	57.2%	52.7%	—	—	1.90
Napoli scores more in 2nd half	26.4%	26.3%	—	—	3.81
Napoli scores more in 1st half	16.4%	17.9%	—	—	5.60

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (away no bet)	79.7%	73.7%	76.6%	0.96×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	20.3%	26.3%	23.4%	1.13×	3.80

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli even goals	63.3%	59.1%	53.6%	1.10×	1.69
Napoli odd goals	36.7%	40.9%	46.4%	0.88×	2.44

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.1%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.9%	12.2%	—	—	8.20

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	63.4%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals	36.6%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	61.1%	60.1%	—	—	1.67
Manchester City to score 2+ in a row	55.6%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Either team to score 3+ in a row	28.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.96
Manchester City to score 3+ in a row	27.5%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Napoli to score 2+ in a row	9.0%	5.6%	—	—	17.83
Napoli to score 3+ in a row	1.3%	2.5%	—	—	39.92

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City corners (+3.5)	91.0%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Manchester City corners (+2.5)	85.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Manchester City corners (+1.5)	79.0%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Napoli corners (+3.5)	70.3%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Napoli corners (+2.5)	60.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Napoli corners (+1.5)	50.5%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Manchester City corners (-1.5)	49.5%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Manchester City corners (-2.5)	39.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Manchester City corners (-3.5)	29.7%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Napoli corners (-1.5)	21.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Napoli corners (-2.5)	14.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.44
Napoli corners (-3.5)	9.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	45.3%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	27.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	27.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	79.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	72.9%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	65.0%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	64.8%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	55.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	54.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	45.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	44.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	35.2%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	35.0%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	27.1%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	20.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	14.1%	11.5%	8.4%	1.36×	8.72
2-0	14.0%	11.5%	6.4%	1.80×	8.72
1-1	8.4%	7.4%	5.6%	1.32×	13.50
2-1	9.2%	7.4%	7.7%	0.97×	13.50
3-0	9.6%	7.4%	5.1%	1.45×	13.50
0-0	6.0%	7.4%	5.1%	1.45×	13.51
3-1	6.3%	7.4%	6.1%	1.21×	13.51
Any other score	5.9%	7.4%	11.5%	0.65×	13.51
0-1	4.9%	1.7%	5.9%	0.29×	58.29
4-0	4.9%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.29
0-2	1.4%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.31
0-3	0.3%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.32
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.5%	1.12×	58.32
1-2	3.0%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.30
1-3	0.7%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.32
1-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.5%	1.12×	58.32
2-2	3.1%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.30
2-3	0.7%	1.7%	5.4%	0.32×	58.32
2-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.0%	1.68×	58.32
3-2	2.1%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.31
3-3	0.5%	1.7%	1.5%	1.12×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.36×	58.32
4-1	3.3%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.30
4-2	1.1%	1.7%	1.3%	1.34×	58.31
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.24×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.5%	3.36×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (2nd half DNB)	81.5%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Napoli (2nd half DNB)	18.5%	17.4%	—	—	5.74

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City leading at HT (DNB)	82.2%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Napoli leading at HT (DNB)	17.8%	14.4%	—	—	6.96

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City or draw (1X)	88.6%	86.5%	66.3%	1.30×	1.16
Manchester City or Napoli (12)	82.0%	80.6%	84.4%	0.95×	1.24
Napoli or draw (X2)	29.4%	26.4%	49.0%	0.54×	3.79

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City or draw at HT	89.2%	88.3%	—	—	1.13
Manchester City or Napoli at HT	60.7%	61.6%	—	—	1.63
Napoli or draw at HT	50.1%	47.7%	—	—	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City or draw (1UP)	88.6%	92.1%	—	—	1.09
Napoli or draw (1UP)	29.4%	32.1%	—	—	3.12

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City or draw in 2nd half	87.3%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
Manchester City or Napoli in 2nd half	68.7%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Napoli or draw in 2nd half	44.0%	39.0%	—	—	2.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.9%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
Neither half drawn	41.1%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (DNB)	86.1%	87.0%	60.2%	1.44×	1.15
Napoli (DNB)	13.9%	13.0%	39.8%	0.33×	7.71

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to score first	71.1%	75.1%	—	—	1.33
Napoli to score first	22.9%	22.8%	—	—	4.39
No goal scored	6.0%	7.4%	—	—	13.49

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	58.3%	55.0%	44.6%	1.23×	1.82
Both teams to score	41.7%	45.0%	55.4%	0.81×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	40.4%	41.6%	29.3%	1.42×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	33.3%	34.5%	50.0%	0.69×	2.90
Not both score & over 2.5	17.9%	21.6%	15.6%	1.39×	4.64
Both score & under 2.5	8.4%	8.3%	5.6%	1.48×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	91.3%	89.0%	80.9%	1.10×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	8.7%	11.0%	19.1%	0.58×	9.08

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	77.5%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	22.5%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	67.1%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Both score 2nd half only	19.4%	15.1%	—	—	6.61
Both score 1st half only	10.5%	10.6%	—	—	9.39
Both score in both halves	3.1%	4.9%	—	—	20.40

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	86.4%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	13.6%	14.8%	—	—	6.75

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	53.9%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
A half without a goal	46.1%	47.2%	—	—	2.12

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.9%	47.2%	37.2%	1.27×	2.12
4-6 goals	26.9%	26.6%	37.5%	0.71×	3.76
0-1 goals	25.0%	26.6%	18.9%	1.41×	3.76
7+ goals	2.1%	1.8%	6.9%	0.27×	54.29

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score exactly 0	51.6%	47.1%	29.3%	1.61×	2.12
Napoli to score exactly 1	34.1%	33.8%	30.9%	1.10×	2.96
Napoli to score exactly 2	11.3%	12.9%	19.4%	0.66×	7.77
Napoli to score 3+	3.0%	4.6%	20.9%	0.22×	21.86

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to score 3+	33.9%	32.6%	31.4%	1.04×	3.07
Manchester City to score exactly 2	27.1%	26.5%	23.7%	1.12×	3.77
Manchester City to score exactly 1	26.3%	26.5%	25.0%	1.06×	3.77
Manchester City to score exactly 0	12.7%	14.3%	20.4%	0.70×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City leading at HT	49.9%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Draw at HT	39.3%	38.5%	—	—	2.60
Napoli leading at HT	10.8%	11.7%	—	—	8.52

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City -1: 1	44.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Manchester City -1: 2	29.4%	26.6%	—	—	3.77
Manchester City -1: X	25.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (0:1)	44.9%	42.7%	31.6%	1.35×	2.34
Napoli (0:1)	29.4%	27.1%	49.0%	0.55×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	25.7%	27.0%	19.6%	1.38×	3.70

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:2)	55.1%	62.8%	68.4%	0.92×	1.59
Manchester City (0:2)	23.5%	20.3%	18.4%	1.11×	4.92
Draw (0:2)	21.5%	20.3%	13.5%	1.50×	4.93

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:3)	76.5%	80.4%	81.6%	0.99×	1.24
Draw (0:3)	13.3%	10.0%	8.9%	1.12×	10.04
Manchester City (0:3)	10.1%	9.9%	9.7%	1.02×	10.09

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:4)	89.9%	92.0%	90.3%	1.02×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	6.4%	4.6%	5.9%	0.79×	21.70
Manchester City (0:4)	3.7%	1.2%	4.1%	0.30×	81.69

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (1:0)	88.6%	86.1%	66.3%	1.30×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	8.6%	6.9%	16.8%	0.41×	14.48
Napoli (1:0)	2.7%	3.3%	17.1%	0.19×	30.67

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City (2:0)	97.3%	96.8%	82.9%	1.17×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	2.2%	2.3%	7.9%	0.29×	43.69
Napoli (2:0)	0.5%	2.3%	9.4%	0.24×	43.80

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.5%	48.8%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	28.2%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	24.3%	24.4%	—	—	4.10

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City clean sheet	51.6%	53.2%	29.3%	1.81×	1.88
Manchester City to concede	48.4%	46.8%	70.7%	0.66×	2.14

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City clean sheet in 1st half	76.7%	77.9%	—	—	1.28
Manchester City to concede in 1st half	23.3%	22.1%	—	—	4.53

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City clean sheet in 2nd half	67.2%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Manchester City to concede in 2nd half	32.8%	32.8%	—	—	3.05

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City over 2.5 corners	83.3%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Manchester City over 3.5 corners	70.8%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Manchester City under 6.5 corners	67.4%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Manchester City over 4.5 corners	57.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Manchester City under 5.5 corners	55.9%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Manchester City over 5.5 corners	44.1%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Manchester City under 4.5 corners	42.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Manchester City over 6.5 corners	32.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Manchester City under 3.5 corners	29.2%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Manchester City under 2.5 corners	16.7%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City over 0.5 goals	87.3%	87.3%	79.6%	1.10×	1.15
Manchester City under 3.5 goals	84.6%	82.2%	83.9%	0.98×	1.22
Manchester City under 2.5 goals	66.1%	68.0%	68.6%	0.99×	1.47
Manchester City over 1.5 goals	61.0%	63.6%	54.8%	1.16×	1.57
Manchester City under 1.5 goals	39.0%	36.4%	45.2%	0.81×	2.75
Manchester City over 2.5 goals	33.9%	32.1%	31.4%	1.02×	3.12
Manchester City over 3.5 goals	15.4%	17.8%	16.1%	1.11×	5.63
Manchester City under 0.5 goals	12.7%	12.7%	20.4%	0.62×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City under 1.5 in 1st half	77.8%	77.4%	—	—	1.29
Manchester City over 0.5 in 1st half	58.8%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Manchester City under 0.5 in 1st half	41.2%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Manchester City over 1.5 in 1st half	22.2%	22.6%	—	—	4.43

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City scores more in 2nd half	42.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Manchester City scores equally in both	29.9%	27.9%	—	—	3.59
Manchester City scores more in 1st half	27.6%	27.8%	—	—	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	61.4%	60.0%	31.6%	1.90×	1.67
Napoli (home no bet)	38.6%	40.0%	68.4%	0.59×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City even goals	50.8%	50.7%	53.3%	0.95×	1.97
Manchester City odd goals	49.2%	49.3%	46.7%	1.06×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	31.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
HT 1-0	28.1%	28.0%	—	—	3.57
HT 2-0	12.4%	11.0%	—	—	9.07
HT 0-1	8.5%	6.9%	—	—	14.47
HT 1-1	7.3%	6.9%	—	—	14.49
Any other HT score	6.3%	6.9%	—	—	14.50
HT 2-1	3.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.06
HT 0-2	1.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.21
HT 1-2	1.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.21
HT 2-2	0.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.25

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City at HT / Manchester City at FT	45.8%	47.1%	—	—	2.13
Draw at HT / Manchester City at FT	22.4%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.7%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Napoli at HT / Napoli at FT	5.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.68
Draw at HT / Napoli at FT	5.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.68
Manchester City at HT / Draw at FT	3.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.64
Napoli at HT / Draw at FT	3.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.66
Napoli at HT / Manchester City at FT	2.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.67
Manchester City at HT / Napoli at FT	0.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.74

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to score last	71.0%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Napoli to score last	23.0%	25.7%	—	—	3.89
No goal scored	6.0%	7.4%	—	—	13.49

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.0%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Manchester City to lead by 1 at any time	78.9%	78.6%	—	—	1.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	55.0%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Manchester City to lead by 2 at any time	50.0%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	26.7%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
Manchester City to lead by 3 at any time	25.8%	25.5%	—	—	3.93
Napoli to lead by 1 at any time	25.5%	25.5%	—	—	3.93
Napoli to lead by 2 at any time	5.2%	6.7%	—	—	15.01
Napoli to lead by 3 at any time	0.9%	1.6%	—	—	63.86

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City most corners	60.2%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Napoli most corners	29.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
Corners level	10.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	88.1%	87.4%	81.4%	1.07×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.9%	78.7%	67.3%	1.17×	1.27
2-6 goals	72.9%	72.4%	74.5%	0.97×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.2%	68.8%	67.6%	1.02×	1.45
1-3 goals	64.9%	63.3%	51.0%	1.24×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.0%	63.3%	53.6%	1.18×	1.58
3-6 goals	49.1%	48.5%	58.7%	0.83×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.9%	48.5%	37.2%	1.30×	2.06
3-5 goals	45.3%	48.5%	51.8%	0.94×	2.06
1-2 goals	42.8%	43.6%	29.8%	1.46×	2.29
3-4 goals	37.1%	39.2%	37.8%	1.04×	2.55
4-6 goals	26.9%	30.2%	37.5%	0.81×	3.31
4-5 goals	23.2%	24.5%	30.6%	0.80×	4.08
5-6 goals	11.9%	14.8%	21.2%	0.70×	6.75
7+ goals	2.1%	2.6%	6.9%	0.37×	39.13

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City never behind	68.4%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Napoli never behind	15.1%	18.1%	—	—	5.53

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.1%	50.9%	45.4%	1.12×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.9%	49.1%	54.6%	0.90×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.8%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.2%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.8%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.2%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.0%	92.3%	94.9%	0.97×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	94.2%	92.3%	86.2%	1.07×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.0%	87.6%	72.2%	1.21×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	75.0%	72.5%	81.1%	0.89×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	70.9%	72.5%	55.9%	1.30×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	51.2%	52.5%	65.3%	0.80×	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	48.8%	47.5%	34.7%	1.37×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	29.1%	27.5%	44.1%	0.62×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	25.0%	27.5%	18.9%	1.46×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	14.0%	12.4%	27.8%	0.45×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	6.0%	7.7%	5.1%	1.51×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	5.8%	7.7%	13.8%	0.56×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.8%	97.2%	92.6%	1.05×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.7%	92.4%	84.0%	1.10×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	83.5%	81.1%	66.8%	1.21×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	67.2%	67.4%	77.6%	0.87×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	62.7%	61.9%	44.0%	1.41×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	37.3%	38.1%	56.0%	0.68×	2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	32.8%	32.6%	22.4%	1.45×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	16.5%	18.9%	33.2%	0.57×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.3%	7.6%	16.0%	0.47×	13.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.2%	2.8%	7.4%	0.38×	35.59

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.0%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	68.4%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	68.2%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	31.9%	31.5%	—	—	3.17
Under 0.5 in 1st half	31.6%	31.5%	—	—	3.17
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.0%	10.8%	—	—	9.29

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.4%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.1%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	53.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	46.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.9%	20.6%	—	—	4.86
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.6%	20.6%	—	—	4.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli not to score in both halves	92.4%	90.4%	—	—	1.11
Manchester City not to score in both halves	59.4%	58.3%	—	—	1.72
Manchester City to score in both halves	40.6%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
Napoli to score in both halves	7.6%	9.6%	—	—	10.41

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Only Manchester City scores	45.5%	50.7%	24.5%	2.07×	1.97
Both teams score	41.7%	46.5%	55.4%	0.84×	2.15
Only Napoli scores	6.7%	7.1%	15.6%	0.46×	14.05
Neither team scores	6.0%	7.1%	5.1%	1.39×	14.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.8%	22.6%	16.1%	1.40×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	22.6%	21.4%	1.05×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	19.0%	17.5%	14.0%	1.24×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.0%	17.5%	16.6%	1.05×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	8.2%	7.6%	14.3%	0.53×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	6.0%	7.6%	5.1%	1.49×	13.14
6 or more goals	5.8%	7.6%	13.8%	0.55×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.6%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
No goals in 1st half	31.6%	35.8%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	20.9%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	11.0%	10.7%	—	—	9.36

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	46.4%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
1 goal in 2nd half	33.0%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	20.6%	22.7%	—	—	4.41

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli not to win both halves	98.7%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Manchester City not to win both halves	72.2%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Manchester City to win both halves	27.8%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Napoli to win both halves	1.3%	2.8%	—	—	36.22

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City to win either half	78.1%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Napoli to win neither half	77.8%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Napoli to win either half	22.2%	20.1%	—	—	4.97
Manchester City to win neither half	21.9%	20.1%	—	—	4.98

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli not to win to nil	93.3%	92.1%	84.4%	1.09×	1.09
Manchester City not to win to nil	54.5%	54.0%	75.5%	0.71×	1.85
Manchester City to win to nil	45.5%	46.0%	24.5%	1.88×	2.17
Napoli to win to nil	6.7%	7.9%	15.6%	0.51×	12.67

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester City by 1	25.7%	27.9%	19.6%	1.42×	3.59
Manchester City by 3+	23.5%	24.1%	18.4%	1.31×	4.15
Manchester City by 2	21.5%	24.1%	13.5%	1.78×	4.15
Draw	18.0%	17.1%	15.6%	1.10×	5.87
Napoli by 1	8.6%	7.2%	16.8%	0.43×	13.90
Napoli by 2	2.2%	2.7%	7.9%	0.34×	36.83
Napoli by 3+	0.5%	2.7%	9.4%	0.29×	36.89