Manchester City v Newcastle United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 15 February 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 3
On target
7 – 1
Shots in box
7 – 3
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.68 – 0.01
Goals − xG
+1.88 – -0.16
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester City win
50.2%
Draw
21.2%
Newcastle United win
28.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDLWWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.7 xG
conceded 9
from 13.3 xG
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.07–1.54 | 2-1 9% | 70% | 69% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester City 2.12 xGNewcastle United 0.16 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester City attacking right
Newcastle United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15' |
 Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Josko Gvardiol |
| 18' |
Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ederson |
| 23' |
Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ilkay Gündogan |
| 27' |
Manchester City |
Sávio | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Phil Foden |
| 29' |
 Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joe Willock |
| 32' |
Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Sávio |
| 38' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kieran Trippier |
| 40' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Phil Foden |
| 54' |
Manchester City |
Sávio | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Erling Haaland |
| 56' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Phil Foden |
| 58' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ilkay Gündogan |
| 59' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Miley | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lewis Hall |
| 82' |
Manchester City |
Sávio | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 83' |
Manchester City |
James McAtee | 0.58 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Erling Haaland |
Players
Manchester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sávio AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 1.09 |
| Rico Lewis DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Nico González DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.08 |
| Abduqodir Khusanov DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| John Stones DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Ederson GK | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| Erling Haaland FW | 89 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.62 | 0.04 |
| Josko Gvardiol DL | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.41 |
| Ilkay Gündogan DMC | 88 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.59 |
| Omar Marmoush AML | 77 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Phil Foden AMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.52 | 0.92 |
| James McAtee Sub | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jéremy Doku Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Nico O'Reilly Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mateo Kovacic Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matheus Nunes Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Isak FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Sandro Tonali MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Dan Burn DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martin Dubravka GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabian Schär DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacob Murphy FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Lewis Hall DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Anthony Gordon FWL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Bruno Guimarães MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Kieran Trippier DR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Joe Willock MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Lewis Miley Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Valentino Livramento Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Sean Longstaff Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Callum Wilson Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emil Krafth Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |