Manchester City v Nottingham Forest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 4 December 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 12
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
12 – 8
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.21 – 0.06
Goals − xG
-0.22 – -0.80
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester City win
65.8%
Draw
20.1%
Nottingham Forest win
14.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDLWWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.7 xG
conceded 9
from 13.3 xG
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.05–0.82 | 2-0 12% | 55% | 49% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester City 3.22 xGNottingham Forest 0.80 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester City attacking right
Nottingham Forest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Manchester City |
Ilkay Gündogan | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jack Grealish |
| 5' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 7' |
Manchester City |
Bernardo Silva | 0.85 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 7' |
Manchester City |
Kevin De Bruyne | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Ilkay Gündogan |
| 8' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 9' | Nottingham Forest | Jota Silva | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 12' |
Manchester City |
Manuel Akanji | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 14' |
Manchester City |
Josko Gvardiol | 0.48 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bernardo Silva |
| 16' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jota Silva |
| 20' |
Manchester City |
Josko Gvardiol | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Erling Haaland |
| 22' |
Manchester City |
Kevin De Bruyne | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bernardo Silva |
| 28' | Nottingham Forest | Nikola Milenkovic | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Anthony Elanga |
| 29' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.23 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
Manchester City |
Kevin De Bruyne | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jéremy Doku |
| 37' | Nottingham Forest | Anthony Elanga | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jota Silva |
| 39' | Nottingham Forest | Álex Moreno | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 40' | Nottingham Forest | Nikola Milenkovic | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 48' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolás Domínguez |
| 52' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 56' |
Manchester City |
Jéremy Doku | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Erling Haaland |
| 59' |
Manchester City |
Kevin De Bruyne | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 60' |
Manchester City |
Jéremy Doku | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Grealish |
| 63' |
Manchester City |
Kevin De Bruyne | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 68' |
Manchester City |
Jack Grealish | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 72' |
Manchester City |
Jack Grealish | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Erling Haaland |
| 73' | Nottingham Forest | Anthony Elanga | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Taiwo Awoniyi |
| 82' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 86' |
Manchester City |
Jéremy Doku | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Grealish |
| 91' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Manchester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernardo Silva AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.85 | 0.55 | 1.84 |
| Josko Gvardiol DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| Jéremy Doku AML | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.35 | 0.72 |
| Erling Haaland FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.34 | 0.61 | 0.90 |
| Jack Grealish DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 0.92 |
| Ilkay Gündogan DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| Stefan Ortega Moreno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Rúben Dias DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Nathan Aké DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Kevin De Bruyne AMC | 75 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0.63 | 1.06 | 2.05 |
| Manuel Akanji DR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Kyle Walker Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Rico Lewis Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Matheus Nunes Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James McAtee Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sávio Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Elanga AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Álex Moreno DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolás Domínguez DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| Jota Silva AML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| Ola Aina DR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Chris Wood FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Ryan Yates DMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Morato Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Taiwo Awoniyi Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Elliot Anderson Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Eric da Silva Moreira Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ramón Sosa Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |