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Manchester City v Sunderland — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 September 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG

Manchester City
5–3
2.67 – 3.11 xG
Sunderland
Shots
16 – 17
On target
6 – 7
Shots in box
12 – 14
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.33 – 0.25
Goals − xG
+2.33 – -0.38
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.91.92.83.80'15'30'45'60'75'90'Enzo Fernández 8' — goalBrian Brobbey 11' — goalMathis Cherki 28' — goalBrian Brobbey 32' — goalAntoine Semenyo 42' — goalAntoine Semenyo 56' — goalBrian Brobbey 58' — goalErling Haaland 80' — goal
Manchester City 2.67 xGSunderland 3.38 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Nilson Angulo 5' — Missed Shot (0.29 xG, Open Play)Nordi Mukiele 6' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Enzo Fernández 8' — Goal (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)Dayann Methalie 10' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Brian Brobbey 11' — Goal (0.47 xG, Open Play)Elliot Anderson 19' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Erling Haaland 27' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Mathis Cherki 28' — Goal (0.11 xG, Open Play)Brian Brobbey 32' — Goal (0.52 xG, Open Play)Antoine Semenyo 42' — Goal (0.07 xG, From Corner)Marc Guehi 42' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Erling Haaland 44' — Missed Shot (0.49 xG, Open Play)Noah Sadiki 47' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Brian Brobbey 49' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Kevin Danso 50' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Antoine Semenyo 56' — Goal (0.07 xG, Open Play)Brian Brobbey 58' — Goal (0.93 xG, Open Play)Nilson Angulo 58' — Blocked Shot (0.29 xG, Open Play)Iliman Ndiaye 62' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Rúben Dias 63' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Mathis Cherki 65' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Brian Brobbey 69' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Dan Ballard 69' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Malick Fofana 69' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Iliman Ndiaye 72' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Jéremy Doku 77' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Erling Haaland 80' — Goal (0.75 xG, Open Play)Malick Fofana 80' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Nico O'Reilly 85' — Saved Shot (0.55 xG, Open Play)Erling Haaland 86' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Dan Ballard 89' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Set Piece)Trai Hume 90' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, From Corner)Malick Fofana 93' — Saved Shot (0.32 xG, Open Play)
Manchester City attacking right Sunderland attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
5' Sunderland Nilson Angulo 0.29 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Enzo Le Fée
6' Sunderland Nordi Mukiele 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Brian Brobbey
8' Manchester City Enzo Fernández 0.06 Direct Freekick Right Foot Goal —
10' Sunderland Dayann Methalie 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Kevin Danso
11' Sunderland Brian Brobbey 0.47 Open Play Right Foot Goal Enzo Le Fée
19' Manchester City Elliot Anderson 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
27' Manchester City Erling Haaland 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Iliman Ndiaye
28' Manchester City Mathis Cherki 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Goal Antoine Semenyo
32' Sunderland Brian Brobbey 0.52 Open Play Right Foot Goal Thomas Meunier
42' Manchester City Antoine Semenyo 0.07 From Corner Right Foot Goal Marc Guehi
42' Manchester City Marc Guehi 0.06 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot —
44' Manchester City Erling Haaland 0.49 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Iliman Ndiaye
47' Sunderland Noah Sadiki 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Enzo Le Fée
49' Sunderland Brian Brobbey 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Enzo Le Fée
50' Sunderland Kevin Danso 0.05 From Corner — Saved Shot Nordi Mukiele
56' Manchester City Antoine Semenyo 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Goal —
58' Sunderland Brian Brobbey 0.93 Open Play Right Foot Goal Nilson Angulo
58' Sunderland Nilson Angulo 0.29 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Granit Xhaka
62' Manchester City Iliman Ndiaye 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Mathis Cherki
63' Manchester City Rúben Dias 0.09 From Corner — Missed Shot Enzo Fernández
65' Manchester City Mathis Cherki 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Antoine Semenyo
69' Sunderland Brian Brobbey 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
69' Sunderland Dan Ballard 0.01 Set Piece — Missed Shot Granit Xhaka
69' Sunderland Malick Fofana 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
72' Manchester City Iliman Ndiaye 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Mathis Cherki
77' Manchester City Jéremy Doku 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Antoine Semenyo
80' Manchester City Erling Haaland 0.75 Open Play Right Foot Goal Josko Gvardiol
80' Sunderland Malick Fofana 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Granit Xhaka
85' Manchester City Nico O'Reilly 0.55 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Jéremy Doku
86' Manchester City Erling Haaland 0.04 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot —
89' Sunderland Dan Ballard 0.09 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot —
90' Sunderland Trai Hume 0.10 From Corner — Missed Shot Enzo Le Fée
93' Sunderland Malick Fofana 0.32 Open Play — Saved Shot Nordi Mukiele

Players

Manchester City

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Erling Haaland FW 90 1 0 4 0 1.34 0.00 1.49
Mathis Cherki AMC 90 1 0 2 2 0.20 0.10 1.66
Antoine Semenyo AML 90 2 1 2 3 0.14 0.32 2.18
Rúben Dias DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.78
Marc Guehi DC 90 0 1 1 1 0.06 0.07 1.30
Enzo Fernández DMC 90 1 0 1 1 0.06 0.09 0.94
Elliot Anderson DMC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 1.30
Gianluigi Donnarumma GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Matheus Nunes DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.30
Josko Gvardiol DL 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.75 1.07
Iliman Ndiaye AMR 80 0 0 2 2 0.10 0.55 0.85
Jéremy Doku Sub 10 0 0 1 1 0.12 0.55 1.42
Nico O'Reilly Sub 1 0 0 1 0 0.55 0.00 0.55

Sunderland

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Brian Brobbey FW 90 3 0 5 1 2.04 0.05 2.71
Dan Ballard DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.10 0.00 0.83
Kevin Danso DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.01 0.84
Nordi Mukiele DR 90 0 0 1 2 0.05 0.37 1.44
Dayann Methalie DL 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 1.11
Enzo Le Fée AMC 90 0 1 0 5 0.00 0.91 0.81
Granit Xhaka DMC 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.34 0.74
Robin Roefs GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.61
Thomas Meunier AMR 84 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.52 1.17
Noah Sadiki DMC 73 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.36
Nilson Angulo AML 65 0 1 2 1 0.58 0.93 2.00
Malick Fofana Sub 25 0 0 3 0 0.43 0.00 0.43
Wilson Isidor Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Trai Hume Sub 6 0 0 1 0 0.10 0.00 0.32
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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