Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 23 August 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 12
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
6 – 10
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.53 – 0.10
Goals − xG
-1.25 – +0.72
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester City win
66.2%
Draw
18.4%
Tottenham Hotspur win
15.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDLWWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.7 xG
conceded 9
from 13.3 xG
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.34–1.05 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.38–1.24 | 2-1 9% | 70% | 65% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester City 1.25 xGTottenham Hotspur 1.28 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester City attacking right
Tottenham Hotspur attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Pedro Porro | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 8' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pedro Porro | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 9' |
 Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 17' |
Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Oscar Bobb |
| 18' |
Manchester City |
Tijjani Reijnders | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Oscar Bobb |
| 27' |
Manchester City |
Omar Marmoush | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Erling Haaland |
| 34' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Brennan Johnson | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Richarlison |
| 46' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
João Palhinha | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 47' |
Manchester City |
Nathan Aké | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rico Lewis |
| 51' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.50 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mathis Cherki |
| 53' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pape Sarr | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Brennan Johnson |
| 55' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 56' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Brennan Johnson | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rodrigo Bentancur |
| 60' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 61' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mohammed Kudus |
| 69' |
Manchester City |
Rico Lewis | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Manchester City |
Rodri | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Phil Foden |
| 78' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jéremy Doku |
| 84' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Rodri |
| 86' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Wilson Odobert | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Bergvall |
| 92' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Dominic Solanke | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 92' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Wilson Odobert | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Manchester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.37 | 0.47 |
| Tijjani Reijnders MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Rico Lewis DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| John Stones DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| James Trafford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Rúben Dias DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nico González DMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Oscar Bobb MR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| Nathan Aké Sub | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Omar Marmoush ML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Mathis Cherki MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.12 |
| Bernardo Silva Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jéremy Doku Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Rayan Ait Nouri DL | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Phil Foden Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Rodri Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Palhinha MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Pedro Porro DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.59 |
| Pape Sarr MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Cristian Romero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Mohammed Kudus FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Micky van de Ven DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Guglielmo Vicario GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Djed Spence DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Brennan Johnson FWL | 85 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.03 | 0.50 |
| Richarlison FW | 85 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.38 | 0.83 |
| Wilson Odobert Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Dominic Solanke Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Lucas Bergvall Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Kevin Danso Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |