Manchester City v West Ham United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 4 January 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 18
On target
7 – 4
Shots in box
7 – 14
xG per shot
0.20 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.12
Goals − xG
+2.02 – -0.53
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester City win
76.0%
Draw
13.6%
West Ham United win
10.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDLWWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.7 xG
conceded 9
from 13.3 xG
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.97–1.06 | 2-1 8% | 77% | 62% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester City 1.98 xGWest Ham United 1.53 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester City attacking right
West Ham United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Paquetá |
| 6' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Crysencio Summerville |
| 8' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mohammed Kudus |
| 9' |
West Ham United |
Vladimir Coufal | 0.00 | Open Play | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 12' |
 Manchester City |
Sávio | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Phil Foden |
| 16' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mateo Kovacic |
| 23' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 28' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Crysencio Summerville |
| 29' |
Manchester City |
Sávio | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 30' |
West Ham United |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 31' |
Manchester City |
Bernardo Silva | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Erling Haaland |
| 33' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Crysencio Summerville |
| 37' |
Manchester City |
Rico Lewis | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sávio |
| 41' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.57 | Open Play | — | Goal | Sávio |
| 45' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Edson Álvarez |
| 50' |
West Ham United |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Niclas Füllkrug |
| 50' |
West Ham United |
Vladimir Coufal | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 54' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Sávio |
| 57' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Kevin De Bruyne |
| 64' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.27 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Paquetá |
| 70' |
West Ham United |
Niclas Füllkrug | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Tomas Soucek |
| 76' |
West Ham United |
Aaron Wan-Bissaka | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Niclas Füllkrug |
| 80' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Niclas Füllkrug |
| 82' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Luis Guilherme |
| 85' |
West Ham United |
Lucas Paquetá | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Edson Álvarez |
| 91' |
Manchester City |
Jack Grealish | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Phil Foden |
| 96' |
Manchester City |
Kevin De Bruyne | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Manchester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phil Foden MR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.56 | 0.11 | 1.20 |
| Bernardo Silva MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Rico Lewis DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 1.11 |
| Kevin De Bruyne MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.61 | 1.39 |
| Stefan Ortega Moreno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.13 |
| Josko Gvardiol DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.08 |
| Erling Haaland FW | 85 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1.08 | 0.11 | 1.24 |
| Sávio ML | 81 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.10 | 1.11 | 1.16 |
| Mateo Kovacic DMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.65 |
| Nathan Aké DC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Ilkay Gündogan Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kyle Walker Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| James McAtee Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jack Grealish Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Soucek DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.27 | 0.71 |
| Niclas Füllkrug FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.32 | 0.20 | 0.87 |
| Lucas Paquetá AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.32 | 0.96 |
| Crysencio Summerville AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.42 | 0.67 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Vladimir Coufal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.70 |
| Max Kilman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Alphonse Areola GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Edson Álvarez DMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.86 |
| Mohammed Kudus AMR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.08 | 0.69 |
| Jean-Clair Todibo DC | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luis Guilherme Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Danny Ings Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |