Manchester United v Arsenal — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 9 March 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425

Premier League xG Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 06:02 UTC

Manchester United

1–1

1.31 – 1.83 xG

Arsenal

Shots

10 – 17

On target

6 – 6

Shots in box

6 – 9

xG per shot

0.13 – 0.11

Set-piece xG

0.12 – 0.25

Goals − xG

-0.31 – -0.87

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Manchester United win

14.7%

Draw

23.4%

Arsenal win

61.9%

152362

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LWWWDWWLWD last 10 scored 20 from 20.9 xG conceded 13 from 14.7 xG

Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LLWWWWWWWW last 10 scored 16 from 22.9 xG conceded 6 from 9.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend-oos	152362	0.82–1.90	0%	0%	0%	Away ✗
dc-xg-oos	182261	0.93–1.93	0-1 11%	54%	52%	Away ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Manchester United 1.31 xGArsenal 1.87 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Manchester United attacking right Arsenal attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
9'	Arsenal	Mikel Merino	0.10	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
14'	Manchester United	Alejandro Garnacho	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Bruno Fernandes
19'	Arsenal	Martin Odegaard	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Thomas Partey
26'	Arsenal	Thomas Partey	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
31'	Arsenal	Leandro Trossard	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Gabriel
33'	Arsenal	Leandro Trossard	0.40	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Martin Odegaard
34'	Arsenal	Martin Odegaard	0.06	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Mikel Merino
45'	Arsenal	Leandro Trossard	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Thomas Partey
46'	Manchester United	Bruno Fernandes	0.06	Direct Freekick	Right Foot	Goal	—
47'	Manchester United	Casemiro	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Noussair Mazraoui
50'	Arsenal	Martin Odegaard	0.03	From Corner	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Leandro Trossard
51'	Arsenal	Declan Rice	0.02	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Martin Odegaard
53'	Manchester United	Noussair Mazraoui	0.32	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Diogo Dalot
58'	Manchester United	Joshua Zirkzee	0.16	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
65'	Arsenal	Leandro Trossard	0.04	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Martin Odegaard
70'	Arsenal	Martin Odegaard	0.10	Direct Freekick	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
73'	Arsenal	Declan Rice	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Jurriën Timber
77'	Manchester United	Bruno Fernandes	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Noussair Mazraoui
77'	Manchester United	Matthijs de Ligt	0.06	Set Piece	—	Saved Shot	Alejandro Garnacho
81'	Arsenal	Gabriel Martinelli	0.29	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Mikel Merino
84'	Arsenal	Leandro Trossard	0.10	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Kieran Tierney
86'	Manchester United	Rasmus Højlund	0.14	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Toby Collyer
89'	Manchester United	Alejandro Garnacho	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Victor Lindelöf
91'	Arsenal	Gabriel Martinelli	0.40	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
91'	Arsenal	Martin Odegaard	0.10	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Leandro Trossard
92'	Manchester United	Bruno Fernandes	0.38	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Noussair Mazraoui
94'	Arsenal	Leandro Trossard	0.06	Set Piece	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—

Players

Arsenal

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Leandro Trossard FWL	90	0	0	6	2	0.67	0.13	0.77
Martin Odegaard MC	90	0	0	5	3	0.32	0.47	0.79
Mikel Merino FW	90	0	0	1	2	0.10	0.35	0.90
Declan Rice MC	90	1	0	2	0	0.08	0.00	0.33
William Saliba DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.69
David Raya GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.16
Jurriën Timber DR	90	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.06	0.60
Gabriel DC	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.04	0.29
Thomas Partey MC	80	0	0	1	2	0.02	0.05	0.20
Riccardo Calafiori DL	62	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.17
Ethan Nwaneri FWR	62	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.11
Gabriel Martinelli Sub	28	0	0	2	0	0.69	0.00	0.69
Myles Lewis-Skelly Sub	28	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.10
Kieran Tierney Sub	10	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.10	0.20