Manchester United v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 November 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Manchester United

15:00 UTC

Aston Villa

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 22 Oct, 10:58 · 388h before kick-off

Manchester United win

60.5%

model 61.8%

Draw

21.6%

model 20.0%

Aston Villa win

17.9%

model 18.1%

602218

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (270 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 9.9%
1-1 9.2%
2-0 9.1%
1-0 8.5%
3-1 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	62.7%	Under 2.5	37.3%
BTTS yes	58.4%	BTTS no	41.6%
Manchester United 1+	88.4%	Manchester United 2+	63.4%
Aston Villa 1+	66.1%	Aston Villa 2+	29.4%

Expected goals 2.15 – 1.08. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

86/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

90%

★ Best pick

Manchester United (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 43%

63.7% fair odds 1.57

strong signal · 1134 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Manchester United leading at HT (DNB)

DNB half time · usually 60%

84.1% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 71 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

At home Manchester United average 2.71 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Manchester United have an estimated 60.5% win probability, against 21.6% for the draw and 17.9% for Aston Villa. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.15 for Manchester United and 1.08 for Aston Villa.

Why Manchester United

At home Manchester United average 2.71 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.6%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Aston Villa can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Manchester United's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Bruno Fernandes (0.67), Bryan Mbeumo (0.57), Benjamin Sesko (0.32). Aston Villa's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Ollie Watkins (0.56), Nicolas Jackson (0.42), Johan Manzambi (0.32).

Availability

1 of Manchester United's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Manchester United's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Aston Villa's top three contributors did not start their last match. 45% of Aston Villa's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Manchester United: 51% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.17 xG a match from set pieces. Aston Villa: 46% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 17.2 faced, 0.18 xG a match from set pieces. Manchester United's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Manchester United are the model's most likely outcome at 60.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.9%. Confidence 86/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Manchester United are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DWWLWDLDDD last 10 scored 16 from 19.7 xG conceded 12 from 14.5 xG

Aston Villa have scored 15 from 15.6 expected and conceded 16 from 17.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

DWWLLDLWDW last 10 scored 15 from 15.6 xG conceded 16 from 17.7 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	622018	2.15–1.08	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	562321	2.06–1.20	1-1 10%	63%	62%
dc-xg	522325	1.88–1.25	1-1 10%	60%	60%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to win	59.1%	54.1%	43.0%	1.26×	1.85
Aston Villa to win	20.5%	24.4%	32.3%	0.76×	4.10
Draw	20.4%	24.4%	24.8%	0.99×	4.10

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United & both teams score	32.4%	29.6%	22.9%	1.29×	3.38
Manchester United & not both score	26.8%	25.2%	20.1%	1.25×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	16.8%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.57
Aston Villa & both teams score	12.3%	13.3%	15.3%	0.86×	7.54
Aston Villa & not both score	8.1%	8.3%	17.1%	0.49×	12.01
Draw & not both score	3.5%	4.9%	5.0%	0.98×	20.59

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United & over 1.5	51.5%	48.9%	36.6%	1.33×	2.05
Manchester United & over 2.5	43.4%	40.3%	30.3%	1.33×	2.48
Manchester United & under 3.5	31.4%	30.8%	26.6%	1.16×	3.25
Manchester United & over 3.5	27.8%	26.1%	16.5%	1.58×	3.84
Draw & over 1.5	16.8%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Manchester United & under 2.5	15.8%	18.0%	12.8%	1.41×	5.56
Aston Villa & over 1.5	16.2%	18.0%	25.3%	0.71×	5.56
Aston Villa & over 2.5	13.7%	12.8%	19.8%	0.65×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	12.6%	12.8%	16.3%	0.79×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	12.6%	12.8%	16.3%	0.79×	7.79
Aston Villa & under 3.5	13.2%	12.8%	21.9%	0.59×	7.79
Manchester United & under 1.5	7.6%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.8%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.8%	7.9%	8.6%	0.92×	12.63
Aston Villa & over 3.5	7.3%	7.9%	10.6%	0.75×	12.63
Aston Villa & under 2.5	6.8%	7.9%	12.6%	0.63×	12.63
Aston Villa & under 1.5	4.2%	4.8%	7.1%	0.68×	20.81
Draw & under 1.5	3.5%	4.8%	5.0%	0.97×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (1UP)	73.5%	75.6%	62.0%	1.22×	1.32
Aston Villa (1UP)	40.8%	38.4%	51.5%	0.75×	2.61

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (2UP)	59.1%	55.3%	44.7%	1.24×	1.81
Aston Villa (2UP)	20.5%	23.2%	34.5%	0.67×	4.31

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to win 2nd half	46.0%	45.7%	36.2%	1.26×	2.19
2nd half drawn	29.5%	25.8%	31.1%	0.83×	3.87
Aston Villa to win 2nd half	24.5%	24.3%	32.8%	0.74×	4.11

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa under 1.5 in 2nd half	80.3%	84.2%	79.9%	1.05×	1.19
Aston Villa over 0.5 in 2nd half	55.8%	54.5%	57.8%	0.94×	1.84
Aston Villa under 0.5 in 2nd half	44.2%	45.5%	42.2%	1.08×	2.20
Aston Villa over 1.5 in 2nd half	19.7%	15.8%	20.1%	0.78×	6.34

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United over 0.5 in 2nd half	70.9%	73.9%	58.3%	1.27×	1.35
Manchester United under 1.5 in 2nd half	65.0%	63.3%	75.2%	0.84×	1.58
Manchester United over 1.5 in 2nd half	35.0%	36.7%	24.8%	1.48×	2.73
Manchester United under 0.5 in 2nd half	29.1%	26.1%	41.7%	0.63×	3.83

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (+2.5)	81.2%	82.5%	89.1%	0.93×	1.21
Manchester United (+0.5)	79.5%	78.5%	67.7%	1.16×	1.27
Aston Villa (+1.5)	63.4%	62.9%	76.0%	0.83×	1.59
Manchester United (-0.5)	59.1%	57.1%	43.0%	1.33×	1.75
Aston Villa (+0.5)	40.9%	43.0%	57.0%	0.75×	2.33
Manchester United (-1.5)	36.6%	37.1%	24.0%	1.54×	2.70
Aston Villa (-0.5)	20.5%	21.5%	32.3%	0.66×	4.65
Manchester United (-2.5)	18.8%	17.5%	10.9%	1.60×	5.72

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to concede	88.3%	86.3%	78.1%	1.11×	1.16
Aston Villa clean sheet	11.7%	13.7%	21.9%	0.62×	7.31

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to concede in 1st half	59.8%	57.1%	51.2%	1.12×	1.75
Aston Villa clean sheet in 1st half	40.2%	42.9%	48.8%	0.88×	2.33

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to concede in 2nd half	70.9%	70.7%	58.3%	1.21×	1.42
Aston Villa clean sheet in 2nd half	29.1%	29.3%	41.7%	0.70×	3.41

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa under 6.5 corners	81.6%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Aston Villa over 2.5 corners	74.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Aston Villa under 5.5 corners	71.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Aston Villa over 3.5 corners	58.4%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Aston Villa under 4.5 corners	57.7%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Aston Villa over 4.5 corners	42.3%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Aston Villa under 3.5 corners	41.6%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Aston Villa over 5.5 corners	28.7%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Aston Villa under 2.5 corners	25.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Aston Villa over 6.5 corners	18.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa under 3.5 goals	96.7%	97.5%	94.6%	1.03×	1.03
Aston Villa under 2.5 goals	88.1%	87.8%	85.1%	1.03×	1.14
Aston Villa over 0.5 goals	69.7%	68.0%	75.0%	0.91×	1.47
Aston Villa under 1.5 goals	66.5%	68.0%	60.6%	1.12×	1.47
Aston Villa over 1.5 goals	33.5%	32.0%	39.4%	0.81×	3.12
Aston Villa under 0.5 goals	30.3%	32.0%	25.0%	1.28×	3.13
Aston Villa over 2.5 goals	11.9%	12.2%	14.9%	0.82×	8.20
Aston Villa over 3.5 goals	3.3%	2.5%	5.4%	0.47×	39.86

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa under 1.5 in 1st half	94.5%	94.0%	89.3%	1.05×	1.06
Aston Villa under 0.5 in 1st half	68.7%	69.5%	59.7%	1.16×	1.44
Aston Villa over 0.5 in 1st half	31.3%	30.5%	40.3%	0.76×	3.28
Aston Villa over 1.5 in 1st half	5.5%	6.0%	10.7%	0.56×	16.58

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa scores more in 2nd half	43.7%	43.5%	40.8%	1.06×	2.30
Aston Villa scores equally in both	40.4%	43.4%	37.5%	1.15×	2.31
Aston Villa scores more in 1st half	15.9%	17.8%	21.7%	0.82×	5.61

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (away no bet)	74.4%	68.5%	63.5%	1.08×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	25.6%	31.5%	36.5%	0.86×	3.17

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa even goals	54.6%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
Aston Villa odd goals	45.4%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	77.6%	81.3%	80.0%	1.02×	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	22.4%	18.7%	20.0%	0.94×	5.36

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	75.3%	72.3%	70.1%	1.03×	1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals	24.7%	27.7%	29.9%	0.93×	3.60

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	67.7%	62.4%	61.6%	1.01×	1.60
Manchester United to score 2+ in a row	54.1%	51.1%	39.2%	1.30×	1.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	30.3%	29.1%	26.1%	1.12×	3.43
Manchester United to score 3+ in a row	25.3%	25.2%	16.4%	1.53×	3.98
Aston Villa to score 2+ in a row	22.6%	19.6%	29.7%	0.66×	5.09
Aston Villa to score 3+ in a row	5.5%	5.5%	10.1%	0.55×	18.10

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United corners (+3.5)	88.2%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Manchester United corners (+2.5)	82.0%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Aston Villa corners (+3.5)	76.6%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Manchester United corners (+1.5)	74.0%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Aston Villa corners (+2.5)	67.8%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Aston Villa corners (+1.5)	57.5%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Manchester United corners (-1.5)	42.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Manchester United corners (-2.5)	32.2%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Aston Villa corners (-1.5)	26.0%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Manchester United corners (-3.5)	23.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Aston Villa corners (-2.5)	18.0%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Aston Villa corners (-3.5)	11.8%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	42.4%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	29.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	28.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	79.2%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	71.8%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	68.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	63.0%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	57.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	53.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	46.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	42.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	37.0%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	31.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	28.2%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	20.8%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.1%	7.4%	11.4%	0.65×	13.50
2-1	9.7%	7.4%	8.9%	0.83×	13.50
1-0	7.6%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.50
2-0	8.2%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.50
3-1	7.0%	7.4%	5.4%	1.36×	13.51
Any other score	7.4%	7.4%	4.4%	1.69×	13.50
1-2	5.4%	7.4%	6.8%	1.08×	13.51
2-2	5.8%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.51
3-0	5.8%	7.4%	5.0%	1.47×	13.51
0-0	3.5%	1.7%	5.0%	0.35×	58.30
0-1	4.2%	1.7%	7.1%	0.24×	58.30
0-2	2.5%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.30
0-3	1.0%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.60×	58.32
1-3	2.2%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.31
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.4%	1.22×	58.32
2-3	2.3%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.31
2-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.7%	2.60×	58.32
3-2	4.2%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.30
3-3	1.7%	1.7%	0.7%	2.31×	58.31
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.5%	3.46×	58.32
4-0	3.1%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.30
4-1	3.7%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.30
4-2	2.2%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.31
4-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.31
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.20×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (2nd half DNB)	65.2%	67.0%	52.5%	1.28×	1.49
Aston Villa (2nd half DNB)	34.8%	33.0%	47.5%	0.69×	3.03

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United leading at HT (DNB)	76.3%	74.9%	59.8%	1.25×	1.34
Aston Villa leading at HT (DNB)	23.7%	25.1%	40.2%	0.62×	3.98

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United or Aston Villa (12)	79.6%	75.6%	75.2%	1.00×	1.32
Manchester United or draw (1X)	79.5%	75.6%	67.7%	1.12×	1.32
Aston Villa or draw (X2)	40.9%	45.9%	57.0%	0.81×	2.18

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United or draw at HT	85.3%	87.8%	75.7%	1.16×	1.14
Manchester United or Aston Villa at HT	62.1%	61.6%	60.2%	1.02×	1.62
Aston Villa or draw at HT	52.6%	47.8%	63.9%	0.75×	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United or draw (1UP)	79.5%	84.2%	74.3%	1.13×	1.19
Aston Villa or draw (1UP)	40.9%	52.3%	65.3%	0.80×	1.91

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United or draw in 2nd half	75.5%	75.7%	67.2%	1.13×	1.32
Manchester United or Aston Villa in 2nd half	70.5%	74.2%	68.9%	1.08×	1.35
Aston Villa or draw in 2nd half	54.0%	54.3%	63.8%	0.85×	1.84

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	56.2%	58.4%	57.1%	1.02×	1.71
Neither half drawn	43.8%	41.6%	42.9%	0.97×	2.40

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (DNB)	74.3%	71.6%	57.1%	1.25×	1.40
Aston Villa (DNB)	25.7%	28.4%	42.9%	0.66×	3.52

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to score first	62.0%	64.5%	51.8%	1.25×	1.55
Aston Villa to score first	34.5%	27.6%	43.3%	0.64×	3.62
No goal scored	3.5%	4.3%	5.0%	0.86×	23.37

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	61.5%	56.6%	58.0%	0.98×	1.77
Not both teams to score	38.5%	43.4%	42.0%	1.03×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	52.4%	47.3%	46.7%	1.01×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	26.1%	33.3%	30.2%	1.10×	3.00
Not both score & over 2.5	12.4%	12.4%	11.9%	1.04×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	9.1%	8.3%	11.4%	0.73×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	78.8%	79.7%	82.1%	0.97×	1.26
Both teams to score 2+	21.2%	20.3%	17.9%	1.13×	4.93

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	60.4%	65.5%	68.6%	0.96×	1.53
Both teams to score in 2nd half	39.6%	34.5%	31.4%	1.10×	2.90

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	49.1%	53.0%	55.9%	0.95×	1.89
Both score 2nd half only	32.2%	27.2%	24.7%	1.10×	3.68
Both score 1st half only	11.3%	10.7%	12.8%	0.83×	9.38
Both score in both halves	7.4%	6.8%	6.8%	0.99×	14.69

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.3%	83.2%	80.4%	1.03×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	18.7%	16.8%	19.6%	0.86×	5.95

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	63.1%	59.8%	61.6%	0.97×	1.67
A half without a goal	36.9%	40.2%	38.4%	1.05×	2.49

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	41.8%	42.1%	46.3%	0.91×	2.38
4-6 goals	37.5%	35.1%	32.8%	1.07×	2.85
0-1 goals	15.4%	20.2%	18.3%	1.10×	4.95
7+ goals	5.3%	7.6%	2.8%	2.70×	13.18

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa to score exactly 1	36.2%	35.9%	35.7%	1.01×	2.78
Aston Villa to score exactly 0	30.3%	33.8%	25.0%	1.35×	2.96
Aston Villa to score exactly 2	21.6%	22.3%	24.5%	0.91×	4.49
Aston Villa to score 3+	11.9%	12.9%	14.9%	0.86×	7.76

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to score 3+	36.3%	35.6%	22.9%	1.55×	2.81
Manchester United to score exactly 2	26.9%	26.5%	26.1%	1.02×	3.77
Manchester United to score exactly 1	25.1%	26.5%	29.2%	0.91×	3.77
Manchester United to score exactly 0	11.7%	14.3%	21.9%	0.65×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United leading at HT	47.4%	52.2%	36.1%	1.45×	1.92
Draw at HT	37.9%	38.4%	39.8%	0.97×	2.60
Aston Villa leading at HT	14.7%	12.2%	24.3%	0.50×	8.22

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United -1: 2	40.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Manchester United -1: 1	36.6%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Manchester United -1: X	22.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (0:1)	40.9%	42.6%	57.0%	0.75×	2.35
Manchester United (0:1)	36.6%	37.3%	24.0%	1.55×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	22.5%	24.2%	19.1%	1.27×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (0:2)	63.4%	67.1%	76.0%	0.88×	1.49
Manchester United (0:2)	18.8%	15.3%	10.9%	1.41×	6.54
Draw (0:2)	17.8%	15.3%	13.2%	1.16×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (0:3)	81.2%	85.3%	89.1%	0.96×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	10.7%	9.9%	7.6%	1.31×	10.08
Manchester United (0:3)	8.1%	5.8%	3.4%	1.72×	17.20

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (0:4)	91.9%	94.5%	96.6%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.1%	4.6%	2.1%	2.22×	21.82
Manchester United (0:4)	3.0%	1.2%	1.4%	0.87×	81.77

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (1:0)	79.5%	78.7%	67.7%	1.16×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	12.5%	12.7%	16.7%	0.76×	7.87
Aston Villa (1:0)	8.0%	6.9%	15.7%	0.44×	14.49

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (2:0)	92.0%	94.0%	84.3%	1.11×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	5.5%	6.4%	9.2%	0.69×	15.71
Aston Villa (2:0)	2.5%	2.3%	6.5%	0.35×	43.68

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	55.1%	57.2%	49.6%	1.15×	1.75
1st half highest scoring	23.7%	24.4%	25.8%	0.94×	4.11
Halves equal	21.2%	24.3%	24.7%	0.99×	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to concede	69.7%	66.7%	75.0%	0.89×	1.50
Manchester United clean sheet	30.3%	33.3%	25.0%	1.33×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United clean sheet in 1st half	68.7%	69.8%	59.7%	1.17×	1.43
Manchester United to concede in 1st half	31.3%	30.2%	40.3%	0.75×	3.31

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to concede in 2nd half	55.8%	54.8%	57.8%	0.95×	1.83
Manchester United clean sheet in 2nd half	44.2%	45.2%	42.2%	1.07×	2.21

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United over 2.5 corners	83.1%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Manchester United under 6.5 corners	70.9%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Manchester United over 3.5 corners	69.8%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Manchester United under 5.5 corners	58.9%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Manchester United over 4.5 corners	55.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Manchester United under 4.5 corners	44.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Manchester United over 5.5 corners	41.1%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Manchester United under 3.5 corners	30.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Manchester United over 6.5 corners	29.1%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Manchester United under 2.5 corners	16.9%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United over 0.5 goals	88.3%	87.3%	78.1%	1.12×	1.15
Manchester United under 3.5 goals	83.0%	82.2%	91.5%	0.90×	1.22
Manchester United under 2.5 goals	63.7%	63.6%	77.1%	0.83×	1.57
Manchester United over 1.5 goals	63.2%	63.6%	48.9%	1.30×	1.57
Manchester United under 1.5 goals	36.8%	36.4%	51.1%	0.71×	2.75
Manchester United over 2.5 goals	36.3%	36.4%	22.9%	1.59×	2.75
Manchester United over 3.5 goals	17.0%	17.8%	8.5%	2.09×	5.62
Manchester United under 0.5 goals	11.7%	12.7%	21.9%	0.58×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United under 1.5 in 1st half	76.8%	77.4%	84.4%	0.92×	1.29
Manchester United over 0.5 in 1st half	59.8%	56.8%	51.2%	1.11×	1.76
Manchester United under 0.5 in 1st half	40.2%	43.2%	48.8%	0.88×	2.32
Manchester United over 1.5 in 1st half	23.2%	22.6%	15.6%	1.45×	4.42

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United scores more in 2nd half	43.7%	42.1%	36.1%	1.17×	2.38
Manchester United scores equally in both	29.0%	27.9%	37.7%	0.74×	3.59
Manchester United scores more in 1st half	27.3%	27.8%	26.3%	1.06×	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa (home no bet)	50.1%	51.3%	56.6%	0.91×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	49.9%	48.7%	43.4%	1.12×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United even goals	50.7%	50.7%	54.0%	0.94×	1.97
Manchester United odd goals	49.3%	49.3%	46.0%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.6%	28.0%	28.1%	0.99×	3.57
HT 1-0	25.2%	27.9%	21.5%	1.30×	3.59
HT 2-0	11.5%	11.0%	8.0%	1.38×	9.08
HT 0-1	10.4%	11.0%	14.8%	0.74×	9.09
HT 1-1	9.5%	6.9%	10.8%	0.64×	14.45
Any other HT score	7.1%	6.9%	5.4%	1.27×	14.49
HT 2-1	4.3%	2.4%	3.7%	0.64×	42.00
HT 0-2	1.9%	2.4%	4.4%	0.54×	42.15
HT 1-2	1.8%	2.4%	2.9%	0.82×	42.16
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.4%	1.0%	2.39×	42.23

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United at HT / Manchester United at FT	39.0%	41.9%	26.4%	1.59×	2.39
Draw at HT / Manchester United at FT	17.4%	16.7%	13.9%	1.21×	5.98
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.2%	12.6%	13.8%	0.92×	7.92
Draw at HT / Aston Villa at FT	9.3%	6.0%	12.3%	0.49×	16.56
Aston Villa at HT / Aston Villa at FT	8.6%	6.0%	16.7%	0.36×	16.58
Manchester United at HT / Draw at FT	5.8%	6.0%	6.4%	0.94×	16.66
Aston Villa at HT / Draw at FT	3.4%	3.5%	4.8%	0.73×	28.64
Manchester United at HT / Aston Villa at FT	2.6%	3.5%	3.5%	1.01×	28.67
Aston Villa at HT / Manchester United at FT	2.7%	3.5%	2.9%	1.21×	28.67

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to score last	62.0%	62.2%	50.1%	1.24×	1.61
Aston Villa to score last	34.5%	32.8%	45.1%	0.73×	3.05
No goal scored	3.5%	4.3%	5.0%	0.86×	23.37

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.5%	95.7%	95.1%	1.01×	1.05
Manchester United to lead by 1 at any time	73.5%	74.3%	62.0%	1.20×	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	57.9%	54.9%	50.6%	1.09×	1.82
Manchester United to lead by 2 at any time	44.6%	39.2%	29.9%	1.31×	2.55
Aston Villa to lead by 1 at any time	40.8%	39.1%	51.5%	0.76×	2.56
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	26.3%	25.5%	21.2%	1.20×	3.92
Manchester United to lead by 3 at any time	22.4%	19.7%	13.2%	1.49×	5.09
Aston Villa to lead by 2 at any time	13.8%	10.5%	21.0%	0.50×	9.54
Aston Villa to lead by 3 at any time	3.9%	1.6%	8.1%	0.20×	60.97

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United most corners	53.5%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Aston Villa most corners	35.7%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	10.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.3%	83.4%	88.4%	0.94×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.3%	78.7%	79.0%	1.00×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.4%	72.4%	75.1%	0.96×	1.38
1-4 goals	72.0%	72.4%	77.9%	0.93×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.2%	63.3%	64.5%	0.98×	1.58
3-6 goals	59.5%	59.1%	55.8%	1.06×	1.69
1-3 goals	53.6%	53.2%	59.7%	0.89×	1.88
3-5 goals	52.7%	53.2%	51.9%	1.02×	1.88
2-3 goals	41.8%	43.6%	46.3%	0.94×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.4%	43.6%	41.3%	1.05×	2.30
4-6 goals	37.5%	39.2%	32.8%	1.20×	2.55
1-2 goals	31.6%	35.2%	36.6%	0.96×	2.84
4-5 goals	30.7%	35.2%	28.9%	1.22×	2.84
5-6 goals	19.1%	18.8%	14.5%	1.30×	5.31
7+ goals	5.3%	8.9%	2.8%	3.16×	11.28

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United never behind	55.6%	62.3%	48.5%	1.28×	1.61
Aston Villa never behind	23.0%	24.7%	38.0%	0.65×	4.06

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	49.2%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	50.8%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.8%	51.7%	53.5%	0.97×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.2%	48.3%	46.5%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.8%	51.9%	51.9%	1.00×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.2%	48.1%	48.1%	1.00×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.5%	95.4%	95.1%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	87.8%	87.6%	93.3%	0.94×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	84.6%	82.3%	81.7%	1.01×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	75.6%	77.3%	82.8%	0.93×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	64.8%	61.8%	58.5%	1.06×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	57.2%	58.6%	64.5%	0.91×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	42.8%	41.4%	35.5%	1.17×	2.42
Under 2.5 goals	35.2%	38.3%	41.5%	0.92×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	24.4%	22.7%	17.2%	1.32×	4.40
Under 1.5 goals	15.4%	17.7%	18.3%	0.97×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	12.2%	12.4%	6.7%	1.86×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	3.5%	4.6%	5.0%	0.92×	21.86

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.3%	92.4%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	86.1%	86.7%	92.5%	0.94×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	80.8%	81.1%	76.2%	1.06×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	70.0%	72.4%	78.9%	0.92×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	54.9%	51.9%	46.1%	1.13×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.1%	48.1%	53.9%	0.89×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	30.0%	27.6%	21.1%	1.31×	3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	19.2%	18.9%	23.8%	0.79×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	13.9%	13.3%	7.5%	1.78×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.7%	7.6%	2.9%	2.60×	13.17

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.0%	89.1%	87.2%	1.02×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	72.4%	71.8%	71.9%	1.00×	1.39
Under 1.5 in 1st half	63.2%	63.2%	64.3%	0.98×	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	36.8%	36.8%	35.7%	1.03×	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.6%	28.2%	28.1%	1.00×	3.55
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.0%	10.9%	12.8%	0.85×	9.20

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	87.2%	85.5%	84.7%	1.01×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	66.2%	68.6%	75.7%	0.91×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	60.8%	61.5%	54.4%	1.13×	1.63
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	39.2%	38.5%	45.6%	0.84×	2.60
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	33.8%	31.4%	24.3%	1.29×	3.19
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	12.8%	14.5%	15.3%	0.95×	6.89

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa not to score in both halves	82.5%	84.4%	76.9%	1.10×	1.19
Manchester United not to score in both halves	57.6%	58.1%	68.6%	0.85×	1.72
Manchester United to score in both halves	42.4%	41.9%	31.4%	1.33×	2.39
Aston Villa to score in both halves	17.5%	15.7%	23.1%	0.68×	6.39

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	61.5%	60.3%	58.0%	1.04×	1.66
Only Manchester United scores	26.8%	26.0%	20.1%	1.29×	3.84
Only Aston Villa scores	8.1%	7.1%	17.1%	0.42×	14.03
Neither team scores	3.5%	4.6%	5.0%	0.93×	21.70

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	19.8%	17.5%	23.3%	0.75×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	18.4%	17.5%	18.3%	0.95×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	12.3%	12.1%	10.6%	1.14×	8.25
6 or more goals	12.2%	12.1%	6.7%	1.81×	8.25
Exactly 1 goals	11.8%	12.1%	13.4%	0.90×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	3.5%	4.5%	5.0%	0.90×	22.39

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.5%	37.4%	36.2%	1.03×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	27.6%	28.3%	28.1%	1.00×	3.54
2 goals in 1st half	22.9%	21.5%	23.0%	0.93×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	14.0%	10.8%	12.8%	0.84×	9.28

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	60.8%	58.4%	54.4%	1.07×	1.71
1 goal in 2nd half	26.4%	29.2%	30.4%	0.96×	3.42
No goals in 2nd half	12.8%	14.3%	15.3%	0.94×	6.99

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa not to win both halves	96.4%	97.2%	91.3%	1.06×	1.03
Manchester United not to win both halves	78.2%	75.5%	86.4%	0.87×	1.32
Manchester United to win both halves	21.8%	24.5%	13.6%	1.80×	4.09
Aston Villa to win both halves	3.6%	2.8%	8.7%	0.33×	35.29

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to win either half	71.6%	73.0%	58.7%	1.24×	1.37
Aston Villa to win neither half	64.4%	65.2%	51.7%	1.26×	1.54
Aston Villa to win either half	35.6%	34.8%	48.4%	0.72×	2.87
Manchester United to win neither half	28.4%	27.0%	41.3%	0.65×	3.70

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Aston Villa not to win to nil	91.9%	92.1%	82.9%	1.11×	1.09
Manchester United not to win to nil	73.2%	75.3%	79.9%	0.94×	1.33
Manchester United to win to nil	26.8%	24.7%	20.1%	1.22×	4.06
Aston Villa to win to nil	8.1%	7.9%	17.1%	0.46×	12.64

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United by 1	22.5%	24.1%	19.1%	1.26×	4.15
Draw	20.4%	24.1%	24.8%	0.97×	4.15
Manchester United by 3+	18.8%	17.1%	10.9%	1.57×	5.86
Manchester United by 2	17.8%	17.1%	13.2%	1.29×	5.87
Aston Villa by 1	12.5%	11.8%	16.7%	0.70×	8.51
Aston Villa by 2	5.5%	7.2%	9.2%	0.78×	13.92
Aston Villa by 3+	2.5%	2.7%	6.5%	0.42×	36.83