Manchester United v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 25 May 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
25 – 6
On target
10 – 1
Shots in box
13 – 4
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.95 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.96 – -0.34
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester United win
28.2%
Draw
26.6%
Aston Villa win
45.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWWDWWLWD last 10
scored 20
from 20.9 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWWLLD last 10
scored 14
from 15.7 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.07–1.43 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.44–1.71 | 1-1 11% | 61% | 63% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester United 2.96 xGAston Villa 0.34 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester United attacking right
Aston Villa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Manchester United |
Mason Mount | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Noussair Mazraoui |
| 3' |
Manchester United |
Mason Mount | 0.48 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Rasmus Højlund |
| 6' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 8' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Noussair Mazraoui |
| 10' |
Manchester United |
Mason Mount | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Patrick Dorgu |
| 11' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mason Mount |
| 27' |
Manchester United |
Ayden Heaven | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 33' |
Manchester United |
Mason Mount | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Casemiro |
| 38' |
 Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marco Asensio |
| 46' |
Manchester United |
Ayden Heaven | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 46' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ayden Heaven |
| 49' |
Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Patrick Dorgu |
| 50' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 56' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 57' |
Manchester United |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 59' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rasmus Højlund |
| 61' |
Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Amadou Onana |
| 67' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 69' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 74' |
Manchester United |
Patrick Dorgu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Casemiro |
| 75' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.35 | Open Play | — | Goal | Bruno Fernandes |
| 78' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Manchester United |
Christian Eriksen | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 82' |
Manchester United |
Christian Eriksen | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 86' |
Manchester United |
Christian Eriksen | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 89' |
Aston Villa |
Ross Barkley | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Youri Tielemans |
| 89' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Donyell Malen |
| 91' |
Aston Villa |
Matthew Cash | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 96' |
Manchester United |
Chido Obi-Martin | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 96' |
Manchester United |
Jonny Evans | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Christian Eriksen |
Players
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Pau Torres DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ollie Watkins FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ian Maatsen DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Morgan Rogers AMR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Boubacar Kamara DMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Amadou Onana DMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| John McGinn AML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Marco Asensio AMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Robin Olsen Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Youri Tielemans Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 0.24 |
| Jacob Ramsey Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ross Barkley Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Donyell Malen Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amad Diallo Traore AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.44 | 0.11 | 0.70 |
| Bruno Fernandes MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.62 |
| Casemiro MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.56 |
| Patrick Dorgu DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.93 |
| Harry Maguire DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Victor Lindelöf DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Altay Bayindir GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Rasmus Højlund FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.52 | 1.00 |
| Mason Mount AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.74 | 0.09 | 0.98 |
| Ayden Heaven DC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.25 |
| Kobbie Mainoo Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Diogo Dalot Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Eriksen Sub | 19 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.85 | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Jonny Evans Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Noussair Mazraoui DMR | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.43 |
| Chido Obi-Martin Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |