Manchester United v Brentford — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 27 April 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 12
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
7 – 9
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.48 – 0.56
Goals − xG
+0.15 – -0.30
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester United win
46.2%
Draw
27.2%
Brentford win
26.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester United are finishing below their chances — 4.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLWDLDDDL last 10
scored 16
from 20.0 xG
conceded 15
from 15.8 xG
Brentford are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDWDDDWDLD last 10
scored 17
from 17.4 xG
conceded 12
from 17.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.69–1.25 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.89–1.45 | 1-1 10% | 65% | 65% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester United 1.85 xGBrentford 1.30 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester United attacking right
Brentford attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kobbie Mainoo |
| 3' |
Manchester United |
Luke Shaw | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 7' |
Manchester United |
Harry Maguire | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 10' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.37 | From Corner | — | Goal | Harry Maguire |
| 16' |
 Brentford |
Michael Kayode | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 19' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mathias Jensen |
| 22' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 23' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 28' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 30' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 38' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.71 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bruno Fernandes |
| 45' |
Brentford |
Mathias Jensen | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 47' |
Manchester United |
Luke Shaw | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Benjamin Sesko |
| 49' |
Manchester United |
Harry Maguire | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 59' |
Brentford |
Dango Ouattara | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thiago |
| 68' |
Brentford |
Dango Ouattara | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Thiago |
| 70' |
Brentford |
Dango Ouattara | 0.30 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | — |
| 70' |
Brentford |
Dango Ouattara | 0.12 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 86' |
Brentford |
Mathias Jensen | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Reiss Nelson |
| 89' |
Brentford |
Mikkel Damsgaard | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Dango Ouattara |
Players
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dango Ouattara AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.08 | 0.29 |
| Michael Kayode DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Mathias Jensen DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.66 |
| Sepp van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Caoimhin Kelleher GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thiago FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| Kevin Schade AML | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Reiss Nelson Sub | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Sesko FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.71 | 0.07 | 0.88 |
| Casemiro DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Harry Maguire DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.37 | 0.03 |
| Kobbie Mainoo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.58 |
| Diogo Dalot DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Senne Lammens GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bruno Fernandes AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.85 | 1.35 |
| Ayden Heaven DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Bryan Mbeumo AMR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| Luke Shaw DL | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Amad Diallo Traore AML | 48 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 1.26 |
| Noussair Mazraoui Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Leny Yoro Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mason Mount Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Joshua Zirkzee Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |