Manchester United v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 19 January 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 6
On target
1 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 4
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.36
Set-piece xG
0.91 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.32 – +0.83
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester United win
42.4%
Draw
23.9%
Brighton and Hove Albion win
33.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWWDWWLWD last 10
scored 20
from 20.9 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.64–1.43 | 1-1 11% | 59% | 61% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester United 1.32 xGBrighton and Hove Albion 2.17 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester United attacking right
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 16' |
 Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Noussair Mazraoui |
| 16' |
Manchester United |
Manuel Ugarte | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 19' |
Manchester United |
Joshua Zirkzee | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 22' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 42' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.46 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 46' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 46' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Baleba |
| 48' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Matthijs de Ligt |
| 59' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.71 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Yankuba Minteh |
| 73' |
Manchester United |
Joshua Zirkzee | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 75' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 82' |
Manchester United |
Leny Yoro | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matthijs de Ligt |
| 82' |
Manchester United |
Matthijs de Ligt | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 88' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 90' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
Players
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaoru Mitoma ML | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.71 | 0.55 | 1.26 |
| Carlos Baleba MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.57 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| Yasin Ayari MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.14 |
| Lewis Dunk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| Joël Veltman DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| João Pedro FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| Estupiñán DL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yankuba Minteh MR | 71 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.56 | 1.18 | 1.73 |
| Danny Welbeck FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 1.18 |
| Georginio Rutter Sub | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Solly March Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tariq Lamptey Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diego Gómez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julio Enciso Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.83 | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| Leny Yoro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Amad Diallo Traore AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.06 | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| Matthijs de Ligt DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| André Onana GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Harry Maguire DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Diogo Dalot DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.20 |
| Joshua Zirkzee FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Noussair Mazraoui DMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| Manuel Ugarte MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Kobbie Mainoo MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Alejandro Garnacho Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Toby Collyer Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rasmus Højlund Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Antony Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |