Manchester United v Chelsea — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 20 September 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 5
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
6 – 4
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.57 – 0.39
Goals − xG
+0.65 – +0.53
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester United win
28.7%
Draw
25.6%
Chelsea win
45.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWWDWWLWD last 10
scored 20
from 20.9 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Chelsea are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLDWLWWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 21
from 18.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.15–1.52 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.55–1.82 | 1-1 10% | 65% | 66% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester United 1.35 xGChelsea 0.47 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester United attacking right
Chelsea attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Patrick Dorgu |
| 7' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.10 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 7' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 8' |
Manchester United |
Harry Maguire | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Casemiro |
| 9' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 13' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.62 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Patrick Dorgu |
| 17' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 22' |
 Chelsea |
Moisés Caicedo | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.20 | From Corner | — | Goal | Harry Maguire |
| 36' |
Manchester United |
Luke Shaw | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Chelsea |
Marc Cucurella | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Moisés Caicedo |
| 62' |
Chelsea |
Tosin Adarabioyo | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Reece James |
| 74' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.10 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matthijs de Ligt |
| 79' |
Chelsea |
Trevoh Chalobah | 0.30 | From Corner | — | Goal | Reece James |
| 82' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 93' |
Chelsea |
Andrey Santos | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | João Pedro |
Players
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevoh Chalobah DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Moisés Caicedo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Reece James DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.00 |
| João Pedro FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Enzo Fernández DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Filip Jorgensen Sub | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tosin Adarabioyo Sub | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marc Cucurella DL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wesley Fofana DC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrey Santos Sub | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Cole Palmer AMC | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Malo Gusto Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyrique George Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pedro Neto AML | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Estêvão AMR | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Robert Sánchez GK | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.04 | 0.77 |
| Amad Diallo Traore AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Luke Shaw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Matthijs de Ligt DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Patrick Dorgu DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| Altay Bayindir GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bryan Mbeumo AMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Harry Maguire DC | 80 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.20 | 0.07 |
| Noussair Mazraoui DMR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Benjamin Sesko FW | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Casemiro MC | 49 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| Manuel Ugarte Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matheus Cunha Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leny Yoro Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mason Mount Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kobbie Mainoo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |