Manchester United v Crystal Palace — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 March 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 8
On target
11 – 3
Shots in box
11 – 5
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
1.34 – 0.05
Goals − xG
-0.35 – +0.62
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester United win
50.1%
Draw
28.3%
Crystal Palace win
21.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWWDWWLWD last 10
scored 20
from 20.9 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.68–1.04 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.96–1.32 | 1-1 10% | 64% | 63% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester United 2.35 xGCrystal Palace 0.38 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester United attacking right
Crystal Palace attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Crystal Palace |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Daichi Kamada |
| 2' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 2' |
 Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 3' |
Crystal Palace |
Maxence Lacroix | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Goal | Brennan Johnson |
| 11' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 30' |
Manchester United |
Harry Maguire | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 36' |
Manchester United |
Noussair Mazraoui | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 37' |
Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 41' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 42' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.12 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 46' |
Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 49' |
Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Kobbie Mainoo |
| 50' |
Crystal Palace |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 56' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 63' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Chris Richards |
| 63' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Casemiro |
| 64' |
Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.40 | Open Play | — | Goal | Bruno Fernandes |
| 66' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 73' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.31 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 76' |
Crystal Palace |
Will Hughes | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 79' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 81' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 83' |
Crystal Palace |
Tyrick Mitchell | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Daichi Kamada |
| 92' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kobbie Mainoo |
| 94' |
Manchester United |
Joshua Zirkzee | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 96' |
Manchester United |
Joshua Zirkzee | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 96' |
Manchester United |
Kobbie Mainoo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joshua Zirkzee |
Players
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismaila Sarr AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| Chris Richards DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Daniel Muñoz DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jaydee Canvot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Daichi Kamada MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.24 |
| Adam Wharton MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Brennan Johnson AMC | 61 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 59 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Evann Guessand Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chadi Riad Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Will Hughes Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Yeremi Pino Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0.84 | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| Casemiro DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.02 | 0.25 |
| Matheus Cunha AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Kobbie Mainoo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.32 |
| Leny Yoro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Diogo Dalot DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.29 |
| Senne Lammens GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Bryan Mbeumo AMR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.09 |
| Harry Maguire DC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Benjamin Sesko FW | 78 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Noussair Mazraoui Sub | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Luke Shaw DL | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amad Diallo Traore Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| Ayden Heaven Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Joshua Zirkzee Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.02 | 0.29 |