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Manchester United v Everton — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 9 March 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

Manchester United
2–0
2.90 – 1.82 xG
Everton
Shots
15 – 23
On target
8 – 6
Shots in box
11 – 15
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
1.81 – 1.17
Goals − xG
-0.90 – -1.82
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.81.62.43.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Bruno Fernandes 11' — goalMarcus Rashford 35' — goal
Manchester United 2.90 xGEverton 1.82 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Ben Godfrey 2' — Saved Shot (0.70 xG, From Corner)Marcus Rashford 6' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Casemiro 7' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Bruno Fernandes 11' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Dwight McNeil 12' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Bruno Fernandes 16' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Jack Harrison 18' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Vitalii Mykolenko 22' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)James Tarkowski 23' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, From Corner)Amadou Onana 24' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)James Garner 24' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Alejandro Garnacho 25' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Bruno Fernandes 27' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Direct Freekick)Dwight McNeil 29' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Marcus Rashford 35' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Dwight McNeil 36' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Ben Godfrey 41' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Casemiro 46' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Victor Lindelöf 46' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Dwight McNeil 49' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Abdoulaye Doucouré 50' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Set Piece)James Tarkowski 50' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Alejandro Garnacho 53' — Missed Shot (0.23 xG, Open Play)Abdoulaye Doucouré 57' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Beto 57' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Alejandro Garnacho 59' — Missed Shot (0.37 xG, Open Play)Bruno Fernandes 62' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Victor Lindelöf 62' — Saved Shot (0.13 xG, From Corner)James Tarkowski 65' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)André Gomes 66' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Lewis Dobbin 67' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Amadou Onana 76' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Set Piece)Dominic Calvert-Lewin 81' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Dwight McNeil 83' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Vitalii Mykolenko 83' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)André Gomes 89' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Diogo Dalot 90' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Bruno Fernandes 92' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)
Manchester United attacking right Everton attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Everton Ben Godfrey 0.70 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Amadou Onana
6' Manchester United Marcus Rashford 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Bruno Fernandes
7' Manchester United Casemiro 0.05 From Corner — Saved Shot Bruno Fernandes
11' Manchester United Bruno Fernandes 0.76 Right Foot Goal —
12' Everton Dwight McNeil 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
16' Manchester United Bruno Fernandes 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Alejandro Garnacho
18' Everton Jack Harrison 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Vitalii Mykolenko
22' Everton Vitalii Mykolenko 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Dwight McNeil
23' Everton James Tarkowski 0.13 From Corner — Missed Shot James Garner
24' Everton Amadou Onana 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
24' Everton James Garner 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Amadou Onana
25' Manchester United Alejandro Garnacho 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot André Onana
27' Manchester United Bruno Fernandes 0.08 Direct Freekick Right Foot Saved Shot —
29' Everton Dwight McNeil 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Amadou Onana
35' Manchester United Marcus Rashford 0.76 Right Foot Goal —
36' Everton Dwight McNeil 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot James Garner
41' Everton Ben Godfrey 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Dwight McNeil
46' Manchester United Casemiro 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Scott McTominay
46' Manchester United Victor Lindelöf 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Casemiro
49' Everton Dwight McNeil 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot James Garner
50' Everton Abdoulaye Doucouré 0.08 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot —
50' Everton James Tarkowski 0.01 Set Piece — Blocked Shot Dwight McNeil
53' Manchester United Alejandro Garnacho 0.23 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Bruno Fernandes
57' Everton Abdoulaye Doucouré 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Beto
57' Everton Beto 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Dwight McNeil
59' Manchester United Alejandro Garnacho 0.37 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Bruno Fernandes
62' Manchester United Bruno Fernandes 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Alejandro Garnacho
62' Manchester United Victor Lindelöf 0.13 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Jonny Evans
65' Everton James Tarkowski 0.02 From Corner — Blocked Shot Dwight McNeil
66' Everton André Gomes 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot —
67' Everton Lewis Dobbin 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
76' Everton Amadou Onana 0.05 Set Piece Right Foot Saved Shot —
81' Everton Dominic Calvert-Lewin 0.08 From Corner — Saved Shot Dwight McNeil
83' Everton Dwight McNeil 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
83' Everton Vitalii Mykolenko 0.05 Open Play — Missed Shot —
89' Everton André Gomes 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Lewis Dobbin
90' Manchester United Diogo Dalot 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Bruno Fernandes
92' Manchester United Bruno Fernandes 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —

Players

Everton

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Ben Godfrey DR 90 0 0 2 0 0.73 0.00 0.08
Dwight McNeil ML 90 0 0 5 6 0.26 0.27 0.42
James Tarkowski DC 90 0 0 3 0 0.16 0.00 0.05
Amadou Onana MC 90 0 0 2 3 0.10 0.76 0.27
Vitalii Mykolenko DL 90 0 0 2 1 0.08 0.02 0.12
Jordan Pickford GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Jarrad Branthwaite DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
James Garner MC 79 0 0 1 3 0.02 0.26 0.17
Abdoulaye Doucouré AMC 65 0 0 2 0 0.12 0.00 0.11
Beto FW 65 0 0 1 1 0.10 0.04 0.29
Jack Harrison MR 65 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.12
André Gomes Sub 25 0 0 2 0 0.09 0.00 0.00
Dominic Calvert-Lewin Sub 25 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.05
Lewis Dobbin Sub 25 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.04 0.05
Ashley Young Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Youssef Chermiti Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Manchester United

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Bruno Fernandes AMC 90 1 0 5 5 1.10 0.79 0.97
Marcus Rashford AML 90 1 0 2 0 0.88 0.00 0.14
Victor Lindelöf DL 90 0 0 2 0 0.17 0.00 0.16
Casemiro DMC 90 0 0 2 1 0.07 0.05 0.41
Diogo Dalot DR 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.44
Scott McTominay AMC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.62
Jonny Evans DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.13 0.34
Raphael Varane DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.28
André Onana GK 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.28
Alejandro Garnacho AMR 87 0 0 3 2 0.66 0.16 0.87
Kobbie Mainoo DMC 83 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.30
Sofyan Amrabat Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Antony Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Willy Kambwala Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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