Manchester United v Newcastle United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 26 December 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 16
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 14
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.48 – 0.28
Goals − xG
+0.06 – -1.13
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester United win
44.7%
Draw
24.9%
Newcastle United win
30.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester United are conceding fewer than expected — 2.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWWWDWWLW last 10
scored 20
from 21.8 xG
conceded 13
from 15.4 xG
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.59–1.27 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.58–1.73 | 1-1 10% | 64% | 65% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester United 0.94 xGNewcastle United 1.13 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester United attacking right
Newcastle United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mason Mount |
| 10' |
Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Patrick Dorgu |
| 11' |
 Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Sandro Tonali |
| 12' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lewis Hall |
| 16' |
Newcastle United |
Malick Thiaw | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lewis Miley |
| 23' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Benjamin Sesko |
| 23' |
Manchester United |
Patrick Dorgu | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 33' |
Manchester United |
Patrick Dorgu | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 35' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Newcastle United |
Fabian Schär | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Manuel Ugarte |
| 61' |
Newcastle United |
Fabian Schär | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 61' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Hall | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Malick Thiaw |
| 61' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Hall | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 61' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Hall | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 66' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jacob Murphy |
| 71' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.35 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lisandro Martínez |
| 74' |
Newcastle United |
Yoane Wissa | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 79' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 81' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Fletcher |
| 84' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Harvey Barnes |
| 88' |
Newcastle United |
Fabian Schär | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 89' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Miley | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yoane Wissa |
| 91' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Bruno Guimarães |
Players
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Gordon FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.38 | 0.22 | 0.67 |
| Fabian Schär DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Lewis Hall DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.59 |
| Lewis Miley DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.60 |
| Malick Thiaw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.53 |
| Bruno Guimarães MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.70 |
| Aaron Ramsdale GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sandro Tonali MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.33 |
| Jacob Murphy FWR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| Jacob Ramsey MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Nick Woltemade FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joelinton Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Yoane Wissa Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| Harvey Barnes Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| Joe Willock Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diogo Dalot DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Matheus Cunha AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| Patrick Dorgu AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| Ayden Heaven DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lisandro Martínez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.07 |
| Luke Shaw DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Manuel Ugarte DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Senne Lammens GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Casemiro DMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Benjamin Sesko FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.04 | 0.30 |
| Mason Mount AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| Jack Fletcher Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Joshua Zirkzee Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Leny Yoro Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Tyler Fredricson Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyrell Malacia Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |