Manchester United v Newcastle United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 15 May 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 21
On target
8 – 7
Shots in box
14 – 15
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.46 – 0.44
Goals − xG
+1.50 – -0.28
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester United win
35.5%
Draw
20.3%
Newcastle United win
44.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWWDWWLWD last 10
scored 20
from 20.9 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.94–2.17 | 1-2 7% | 78% | 76% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester United 1.50 xGNewcastle United 2.28 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester United attacking right
Newcastle United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lewis Hall |
| 1' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kieran Trippier |
| 9' |
 Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sofyan Amrabat |
| 12' |
Manchester United |
Scott McTominay | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Aaron Wan-Bissaka |
| 14' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aaron Wan-Bissaka |
| 15' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 19' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 20' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Hall | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 25' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 26' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 26' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
Manchester United |
Kobbie Mainoo | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 35' |
Newcastle United |
Dan Burn | 0.13 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Jacob Murphy |
| 35' |
Newcastle United |
Emil Krafth | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kieran Trippier |
| 45' |
Manchester United |
Scott McTominay | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 45' |
Newcastle United |
Bruno Guimarães | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alexander Isak |
| 47' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexander Isak |
| 47' |
Newcastle United |
Elliot Anderson | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jacob Murphy |
| 51' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alejandro Garnacho |
| 51' |
Newcastle United |
Alexander Isak | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 53' |
Newcastle United |
Dan Burn | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 56' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 60' |
Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alejandro Garnacho |
| 65' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 66' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Emil Krafth |
| 66' |
Newcastle United |
Sean Longstaff | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joelinton |
| 67' |
Newcastle United |
Sean Longstaff | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Anthony Gordon |
| 72' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sean Longstaff |
| 74' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 83' |
Manchester United |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Bruno Fernandes |
| 83' |
Newcastle United |
Fabian Schär | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Lewis Hall |
| 87' |
Manchester United |
Aaron Wan-Bissaka | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Newcastle United |
Joelinton | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Miguel Almirón |
| 91' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Hall | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 96' |
Manchester United |
Marcus Rashford | 0.09 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Eriksen |
Players
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Isak FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.62 | 0.16 | 1.61 |
| Anthony Gordon FWL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0.55 | 0.63 | 1.59 |
| Bruno Guimarães MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Dan Burn DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Emil Krafth DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Lewis Hall DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.16 | 0.56 |
| Martin Dubravka GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Sean Longstaff MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.08 | 0.63 |
| Kieran Trippier DR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| Elliot Anderson MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jacob Murphy FWR | 65 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 0.94 |
| Joelinton Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| Miguel Almirón Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Fabian Schär Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Harvey Barnes Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott McTominay AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Casemiro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| Bruno Fernandes FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0.05 | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| Diogo Dalot DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jonny Evans DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Sofyan Amrabat DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| André Onana GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kobbie Mainoo DMC | 86 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Alejandro Garnacho AML | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.32 | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| Amad Diallo Traore AMR | 85 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| Rasmus Højlund Sub | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Marcus Rashford Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Lisandro Martínez Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Eriksen Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 |