Manchester United v Sheffield United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 24 April 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
25 – 10
On target
13 – 4
Shots in box
18 – 6
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
1.21 – 0.19
Goals − xG
+0.49 – +0.79
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester United win
61.2%
Draw
19.8%
Sheffield United win
19.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWWDWWLWD last 10
scored 20
from 20.9 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Sheffield United are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 9.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLDLLLLLLL last 10
scored 11
from 13.8 xG
conceded 30
from 21.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.21–1.15 | 2-1 10% | 65% | 61% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester United 3.51 xGSheffield United 1.21 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester United attacking right
Sheffield United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 1' |
Manchester United |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 11' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 13' |
 Sheffield United |
Cameron Archer | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gustavo Hamer |
| 14' |
Sheffield United |
Ben Brereton Díaz | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gustavo Hamer |
| 16' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 16' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 19' |
Manchester United |
Kobbie Mainoo | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
Manchester United |
Christian Eriksen | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antony |
| 21' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antony |
| 24' |
Manchester United |
Antony | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Manchester United |
Antony | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rasmus Højlund |
| 30' |
Manchester United |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 34' |
Sheffield United |
Jayden Bogle | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 37' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.09 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 37' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alejandro Garnacho |
| 41' |
Manchester United |
Harry Maguire | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Alejandro Garnacho |
| 44' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 45' |
Manchester United |
Christian Eriksen | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 46' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 49' |
Sheffield United |
Ben Brereton Díaz | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ben Osborn |
| 58' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 60' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 65' |
Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 66' |
Sheffield United |
Ben Brereton Díaz | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gustavo Hamer |
| 67' |
Manchester United |
Scott McTominay | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 73' |
Sheffield United |
Anel Ahmedhodzic | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
Sheffield United |
Ben Brereton Díaz | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 80' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Kobbie Mainoo |
| 84' |
Manchester United |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.67 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Bruno Fernandes |
| 88' |
Sheffield United |
Gustavo Hamer | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 89' |
Sheffield United |
Gustavo Hamer | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Oliver Norwood |
| 89' |
Sheffield United |
Vinicius Souza | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Gustavo Hamer |
| 94' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
Players
Sheffield United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Brereton Díaz FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Anel Ahmedhodzic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gustavo Hamer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.66 |
| Wes Foderingham GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Osborn DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 0.56 |
| Oliver Arblaster MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mason Holgate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Auston Trusty DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jayden Bogle DMR | 80 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Cameron Archer FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Andre Brooks MC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vinicius Souza Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| James McAtee Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oliver Norwood Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| William Osula Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Garnacho AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1.06 | 0.10 | 1.72 |
| Bruno Fernandes AMC | 90 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0.84 | 1.44 | 1.66 |
| Rasmus Højlund FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.81 | 0.04 | 0.89 |
| Casemiro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 1.23 |
| Harry Maguire DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| Kobbie Mainoo DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.22 |
| Diogo Dalot DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.38 | 1.63 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.45 |
| André Onana GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Christian Eriksen DMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.93 |
| Antony AMR | 57 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.46 | 0.62 |
| Amad Diallo Traore Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.72 |
| Scott McTominay Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Ethan Wheatley Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sofyan Amrabat Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |