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Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 14 January 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

Shots
9 – 16
On target
2 – 5
Shots in box
6 – 12
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.23 – 0.83
Goals − xG
+1.08 – +0.69
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.71.11.50'15'30'45'60'75'90'Rasmus Højlund 2' — goalRicharlison 18' — goalMarcus Rashford 39' — goalRodrigo Bentancur 45' — goal
Manchester United 0.92 xGTottenham Hotspur 1.31 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Rasmus Højlund 2' — Goal (0.09 xG, Open Play)Marcus Rashford 7' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Pedro Porro 8' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Rodrigo Bentancur 10' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Timo Werner 10' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Richarlison 18' — Goal (0.09 xG, From Corner)Timo Werner 21' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Timo Werner 23' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Brennan Johnson 29' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Diogo Dalot 30' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Marcus Rashford 39' — Goal (0.10 xG, Open Play)Timo Werner 44' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Bruno Fernandes 45' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Raphael Varane 45' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Rodrigo Bentancur 45' — Goal (0.12 xG, Open Play)Cristian Romero 46' — Shot On Post (0.48 xG, From Corner)Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 47' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Richarlison 51' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Timo Werner 57' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Scott McTominay 61' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Oliver Skipp 68' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Rodrigo Bentancur 69' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Brennan Johnson 81' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Bruno Fernandes 85' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)Scott McTominay 94' — Missed Shot (0.45 xG, Open Play)
Manchester United attacking right Tottenham Hotspur attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Manchester United Rasmus Højlund 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Goal
7' Manchester United Marcus Rashford 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Christian Eriksen
8' Tottenham Hotspur Pedro Porro 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
10' Tottenham Hotspur Rodrigo Bentancur 0.07 From Corner Blocked Shot Pedro Porro
10' Tottenham Hotspur Timo Werner 0.06 Open Play Blocked Shot Brennan Johnson
18' Tottenham Hotspur Richarlison 0.09 From Corner Goal Pedro Porro
21' Tottenham Hotspur Timo Werner 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Iyenoma Destiny Udogie
23' Tottenham Hotspur Timo Werner 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Pedro Porro
29' Tottenham Hotspur Brennan Johnson 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Richarlison
30' Manchester United Diogo Dalot 0.02 From Corner Blocked Shot Bruno Fernandes
39' Manchester United Marcus Rashford 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Goal Rasmus Højlund
44' Tottenham Hotspur Timo Werner 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Oliver Skipp
45' Manchester United Bruno Fernandes 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Alejandro Garnacho
45' Manchester United Raphael Varane 0.08 From Corner Blocked Shot Christian Eriksen
45' Tottenham Hotspur Rodrigo Bentancur 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Goal Timo Werner
46' Tottenham Hotspur Cristian Romero 0.48 From Corner Shot On Post Pedro Porro
47' Tottenham Hotspur Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
51' Tottenham Hotspur Richarlison 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Oliver Skipp
57' Tottenham Hotspur Timo Werner 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Pedro Porro
61' Manchester United Scott McTominay 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
68' Tottenham Hotspur Oliver Skipp 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
69' Tottenham Hotspur Rodrigo Bentancur 0.09 From Corner Missed Shot
81' Tottenham Hotspur Brennan Johnson 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Oliver Skipp
85' Manchester United Bruno Fernandes 0.06 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
94' Manchester United Scott McTominay 0.45 Open Play Missed Shot Alejandro Garnacho

Players

Tottenham Hotspur

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Cristian Romero DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.48 0.00 0.38
Rodrigo Bentancur MC 90 1 0 3 0 0.29 0.00 0.22
Richarlison FW 90 1 0 2 1 0.15 0.05 0.17
Brennan Johnson FWR 90 0 0 2 1 0.09 0.06 0.15
Pedro Porro DR 90 0 1 1 5 0.03 0.74 0.23
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.03 0.19
Micky van de Ven DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Iyenoma Destiny Udogie DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.16
Guglielmo Vicario GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.19
Oliver Skipp MC 88 0 0 1 3 0.02 0.16 0.33
Timo Werner FWL 83 0 1 5 1 0.23 0.12 0.35
Bryan Gil Salvatierra Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Radu Dragusin Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Emerson Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Manchester United

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Marcus Rashford AML 90 1 0 2 0 0.13 0.00 0.19
Rasmus Højlund FW 90 1 1 1 1 0.09 0.10 0.19
Bruno Fernandes AMC 90 0 0 2 1 0.09 0.02 0.19
Raphael Varane DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.00
Diogo Dalot DR 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.45
Alejandro Garnacho AMR 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.47 0.64
André Onana GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Aaron Wan-Bissaka DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.45
Kobbie Mainoo DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.45
Jonny Evans DC 66 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Christian Eriksen DMC 61 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.12 0.10
Scott McTominay Sub 29 0 0 2 0 0.51 0.00 0.51
Lisandro Martínez Sub 24 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.45
Antony Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.45
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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