Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 7 February 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
23 – 7
On target
10 – 1
Shots in box
10 – 3
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.50 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.17 – -0.59
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester United win
54.7%
Draw
25.6%
Tottenham Hotspur win
19.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWWDWWLWD last 10
scored 20
from 20.9 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.85–1.05 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.96–1.12 | 1-1 10% | 59% | 58% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester United 2.17 xGTottenham Hotspur 0.59 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester United attacking right
Tottenham Hotspur attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 9' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kobbie Mainoo |
| 10' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 11' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Conor Gallagher | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Xavi Simons |
| 13' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
João Palhinha | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Wilson Odobert |
| 13' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pape Sarr | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 15' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Micky van de Ven | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Iyenoma Destiny Udogie |
| 15' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Xavi Simons | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Conor Gallagher |
| 19' |
Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 22' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 25' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 37' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Kobbie Mainoo |
| 40' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.30 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Manchester United |
Casemiro | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kobbie Mainoo |
| 55' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 56' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Xavi Simons | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 59' |
Manchester United |
Luke Shaw | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Casemiro |
| 60' |
Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 61' |
Manchester United |
Luke Shaw | 0.08 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Manchester United |
Amad Diallo Traore | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 70' |
Manchester United |
Diogo Dalot | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Casemiro |
| 80' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Diogo Dalot |
| 85' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 90' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kobbie Mainoo |
| 90' |
Manchester United |
Noussair Mazraoui | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
| 94' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mathys Tel | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Souza |
| 95' |
Manchester United |
Benjamin Sesko | 0.57 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Bruno Fernandes |
Players
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micky van de Ven DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Xavi Simons FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| Pape Sarr MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Guglielmo Vicario GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Archie Gray DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Conor Gallagher MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.07 | 0.40 |
| João Palhinha MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Dominic Solanke FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Iyenoma Destiny Udogie DL | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.53 |
| Radu Dragusin Sub | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wilson Odobert FWR | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.40 |
| Souza Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Cristian Romero DC | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Mathys Tel Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Randal Kolo Muani Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yves Bissouma Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 0.69 | 0.81 | 1.48 |
| Casemiro DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.37 | 0.06 | 0.71 |
| Bryan Mbeumo AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Luke Shaw DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Amad Diallo Traore AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.26 | 1.36 |
| Diogo Dalot DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.35 | 0.60 |
| Kobbie Mainoo DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.56 |
| Harry Maguire DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Senne Lammens GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lisandro Martínez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.97 |
| Matheus Cunha FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.27 |
| Benjamin Sesko Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Noussair Mazraoui Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Joshua Zirkzee Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Manuel Ugarte Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Tyler Fletcher Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |