Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 10 October 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 02:09

Manchester United

12:30

Tottenham Hotspur

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 801h before kick-off

Manchester United win

63.2%

model 65.4%

Draw

18.5%

model 19.1%

Tottenham Hotspur win

18.3%

model 15.5%

631818

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (147 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 10.0%
2-1 9.8%
1-0 9.0%
1-1 8.9%
3-0 7.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	62.0%	Under 2.5	38.0%
BTTS yes	55.8%	BTTS no	44.2%
Manchester United 1+	89.1%	Manchester United 2+	65.0%
Tottenham Hotspur 1+	62.6%	Tottenham Hotspur 2+	25.8%

Expected goals 2.22 – 0.98. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

80/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

85%

★ Best pick

Manchester United (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 43%

69.0% fair odds 1.45

strong signal · 931 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Tottenham Hotspur not to score in both halves

Score both halves · usually 77%

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 820 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Manchester United carry the stronger rating, 1694 Elo against 1501.
Manchester United have created 2.09 xG a match over their last five while Tottenham Hotspur have allowed 1.34.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
At home Manchester United average 2.99 xG a match.

Risk factors

The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.85).

Why the model thinks this

The price

Manchester United have an estimated 63.2% win probability, against 18.5% for the draw and 18.3% for Tottenham Hotspur. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.22 for Manchester United and 0.98 for Tottenham Hotspur.

Why Manchester United

Manchester United carry the stronger rating, 1694 Elo against 1501. Manchester United have created 2.09 xG a match over their last five while Tottenham Hotspur have allowed 1.34. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. At home Manchester United average 2.99 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 18.5%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Tottenham Hotspur can win

Tottenham Hotspur have created 1.32 xG a match over their last five while Manchester United have allowed 1.47. Away from home Tottenham Hotspur average 1.31 xG a match.

Key players

Manchester United's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Bruno Fernandes (0.74), Bryan Mbeumo (0.51), Matheus Cunha (0.36). Tottenham Hotspur's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Omar Marmoush (0.39), Richarlison (0.37), Dominic Solanke (0.29).

Availability

2 of Tottenham Hotspur's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Tottenham Hotspur's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Manchester United: 56% possession, 21.6 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.25 xG a match from set pieces. Tottenham Hotspur: 56% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 13.6 faced, 0.61 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Manchester United are the model's most likely outcome at 63.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 10.0%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LWWWDWWLWD last 10 scored 20 from 20.9 xG conceded 13 from 14.7 xG

Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LDWWDLWLLD last 10 scored 8 from 13.2 xG conceded 12 from 13.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	651915	2.22–0.98	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	672013	2.32–0.96	2-0 10%	64%	56%
dc-xg	502327	1.81–1.26	1-1 11%	59%	60%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to win	63.2%	58.2%	43.1%	1.35×	1.72
Draw	19.7%	19.4%	24.7%	0.78×	5.17
Tottenham Hotspur to win	17.0%	19.3%	32.3%	0.60×	5.17

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United & both teams score	31.8%	29.7%	22.9%	1.30×	3.37
Manchester United & not both score	31.4%	29.7%	20.3%	1.46×	3.37
Draw & both teams score	15.7%	17.9%	20.0%	0.90×	5.58
Tottenham Hotspur & both teams score	9.7%	8.4%	15.5%	0.54×	11.92
Tottenham Hotspur & not both score	7.4%	8.4%	16.8%	0.50×	11.93
Draw & not both score	4.0%	4.9%	4.9%	1.00×	20.56

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United & over 1.5	54.5%	48.8%	36.7%	1.33×	2.05
Manchester United & over 2.5	44.9%	40.4%	30.2%	1.34×	2.48
Manchester United & under 3.5	35.1%	34.9%	26.8%	1.30×	2.87
Manchester United & over 3.5	28.1%	26.0%	16.4%	1.59×	3.84
Manchester United & under 2.5	18.3%	18.0%	13.0%	1.39×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	15.7%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	13.1%	12.9%	16.3%	0.79×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	13.1%	12.9%	16.3%	0.79×	7.77
Tottenham Hotspur & over 1.5	12.9%	12.9%	25.4%	0.51×	7.77
Tottenham Hotspur & under 3.5	11.8%	12.9%	21.7%	0.59×	7.77
Tottenham Hotspur & over 2.5	10.7%	12.9%	20.0%	0.64×	7.77
Manchester United & under 1.5	8.8%	7.9%	6.5%	1.21×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	6.6%	7.9%	8.5%	0.92×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	6.6%	7.9%	8.5%	0.92×	12.70
Tottenham Hotspur & under 2.5	6.4%	7.9%	12.4%	0.64×	12.70
Tottenham Hotspur & over 3.5	5.2%	7.9%	10.7%	0.74×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	4.0%	4.8%	4.9%	0.98×	20.93
Tottenham Hotspur & under 1.5	4.2%	4.8%	6.9%	0.69×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (1UP)	75.8%	78.6%	62.1%	1.27×	1.27
Tottenham Hotspur (1UP)	36.2%	34.3%	51.4%	0.67×	2.92

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (2UP)	63.2%	67.9%	44.9%	1.51×	1.47
Tottenham Hotspur (2UP)	17.0%	17.4%	34.5%	0.50×	5.76

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to win 2nd half	52.3%	52.2%	36.3%	1.43×	1.92
2nd half drawn	29.0%	26.3%	30.9%	0.85×	3.80
Tottenham Hotspur to win 2nd half	18.6%	19.1%	32.9%	0.58×	5.24

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (+0.5)	83.0%	82.4%	67.7%	1.22×	1.21
Tottenham Hotspur (+2.5)	79.0%	78.4%	89.2%	0.88×	1.28
Manchester United (-0.5)	63.2%	62.9%	43.1%	1.46×	1.59
Tottenham Hotspur (+1.5)	59.9%	57.0%	76.0%	0.75×	1.75
Manchester United (-1.5)	40.1%	43.0%	24.0%	1.79×	2.33
Tottenham Hotspur (+0.5)	36.8%	37.1%	56.9%	0.65×	2.70
Manchester United (-2.5)	21.0%	21.6%	10.8%	2.00×	4.64
Tottenham Hotspur (-0.5)	17.0%	17.6%	32.3%	0.55×	5.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur to concede	88.6%	86.5%	78.4%	1.10×	1.16
Tottenham Hotspur clean sheet	11.4%	13.5%	21.6%	0.63×	7.40

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur to concede in 1st half	58.2%	58.5%	51.4%	1.14×	1.71
Tottenham Hotspur clean sheet in 1st half	41.8%	41.5%	48.6%	0.85×	2.41

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur over 2.5 corners	81.9%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Tottenham Hotspur under 6.5 corners	72.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Tottenham Hotspur over 3.5 corners	68.1%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Tottenham Hotspur under 5.5 corners	61.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Tottenham Hotspur over 4.5 corners	53.1%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Tottenham Hotspur under 4.5 corners	46.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Tottenham Hotspur over 5.5 corners	39.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Tottenham Hotspur under 3.5 corners	31.9%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Tottenham Hotspur over 6.5 corners	27.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Tottenham Hotspur under 2.5 corners	18.1%	18.5%	—	—	5.39

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur under 3.5 goals	97.9%	97.5%	94.5%	1.03×	1.03
Tottenham Hotspur under 2.5 goals	91.3%	92.3%	85.0%	1.09×	1.08
Tottenham Hotspur under 1.5 goals	72.2%	71.9%	60.6%	1.19×	1.39
Tottenham Hotspur over 0.5 goals	64.6%	63.0%	74.9%	0.84×	1.59
Tottenham Hotspur under 0.5 goals	35.4%	37.0%	25.1%	1.48×	2.70
Tottenham Hotspur over 1.5 goals	27.8%	28.1%	39.4%	0.71×	3.57
Tottenham Hotspur over 2.5 goals	8.7%	7.7%	15.0%	0.51×	13.02
Tottenham Hotspur over 3.5 goals	2.1%	2.5%	5.5%	0.45×	40.77

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur under 1.5 in 1st half	94.2%	94.2%	89.2%	1.06×	1.06
Tottenham Hotspur under 0.5 in 1st half	67.9%	68.4%	59.4%	1.15×	1.46
Tottenham Hotspur over 0.5 in 1st half	32.1%	31.6%	40.6%	0.78×	3.16
Tottenham Hotspur over 1.5 in 1st half	5.8%	5.8%	10.8%	0.53×	17.37

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (away no bet)	76.2%	73.6%	63.5%	1.16×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	23.8%	26.4%	36.5%	0.72×	3.79

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur even goals	56.3%	56.9%	53.7%	1.06×	1.76
Tottenham Hotspur odd goals	43.7%	43.1%	46.3%	0.93×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	79.2%	82.3%	80.1%	1.03×	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	20.8%	17.7%	19.9%	0.89×	5.65

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	73.1%	67.3%	70.2%	0.96×	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	26.9%	32.7%	29.8%	1.10×	3.06

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	66.6%	62.1%	61.4%	1.01×	1.61
Manchester United to score 2+ in a row	55.8%	55.1%	39.1%	1.41×	1.82
Either team to score 3+ in a row	30.6%	28.9%	26.2%	1.10×	3.46
Manchester United to score 3+ in a row	27.0%	25.0%	16.5%	1.52×	3.99
Tottenham Hotspur to score 2+ in a row	18.3%	16.4%	29.9%	0.55×	6.11
Tottenham Hotspur to score 3+ in a row	3.9%	2.6%	10.2%	0.26×	38.17

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United corners (+3.5)	82.5%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Tottenham Hotspur corners (+3.5)	81.2%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Manchester United corners (+2.5)	75.1%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Tottenham Hotspur corners (+2.5)	73.6%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Manchester United corners (+1.5)	66.2%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Tottenham Hotspur corners (+1.5)	64.5%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Manchester United corners (-1.5)	35.5%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Tottenham Hotspur corners (-1.5)	33.8%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Manchester United corners (-2.5)	26.4%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Tottenham Hotspur corners (-2.5)	24.9%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Manchester United corners (-3.5)	18.8%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Tottenham Hotspur corners (-3.5)	17.5%	20.3%	—	—	4.94

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	36.0%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
12+ corners	34.5%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	73.8%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	73.6%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	65.5%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	64.0%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	56.3%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	53.8%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	46.2%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	43.8%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	36.0%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 11.5 corners	34.5%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Over 12.5 corners	26.4%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Under 7.5 corners	26.2%	27.4%	—	—	3.66

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	8.8%	7.4%	6.5%	1.14×	13.48
1-1	9.1%	7.4%	11.5%	0.64×	13.48
2-0	9.5%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.48
2-1	9.9%	7.4%	9.0%	0.83×	13.48
3-0	6.9%	7.4%	5.0%	1.47×	13.48
3-1	7.2%	7.4%	5.5%	1.36×	13.48
Any other score	7.3%	7.4%	4.2%	1.77×	13.48
2-2	5.1%	7.4%	7.6%	0.98×	13.48
1-2	4.7%	1.7%	6.9%	0.25×	58.46
0-0	4.0%	1.7%	4.9%	0.35×	58.47
0-1	4.2%	1.7%	6.9%	0.25×	58.47
0-2	2.2%	1.7%	5.5%	0.31×	58.48
0-3	0.8%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.49
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.49
1-3	1.6%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.48
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.18×	58.49
2-3	1.8%	1.7%	2.4%	0.72×	58.48
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.7%	2.50×	58.49
3-2	3.7%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.47
3-3	1.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.23×	58.48
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.34×	58.49
4-0	3.7%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	58.47
4-1	3.9%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.47
4-2	2.0%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	58.48
4-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.9%	1.82×	58.49
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.01×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United leading at HT (DNB)	74.4%	71.9%	59.6%	1.21×	1.39
Tottenham Hotspur leading at HT (DNB)	25.6%	28.1%	40.4%	0.70×	3.56

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United or draw (1X)	83.0%	80.7%	67.7%	1.19×	1.24
Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur (12)	80.3%	80.6%	75.3%	1.07×	1.24
Tottenham Hotspur or draw (X2)	36.8%	41.8%	56.9%	0.73×	2.39

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United or draw at HT	84.3%	84.6%	75.5%	1.12×	1.18
Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur at HT	61.2%	62.1%	60.6%	1.02×	1.61
Tottenham Hotspur or draw at HT	54.5%	47.7%	63.8%	0.75×	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United or draw (1UP)	83.0%	88.5%	74.4%	1.19×	1.13
Tottenham Hotspur or draw (1UP)	36.8%	42.3%	65.2%	0.65×	2.37

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United or draw in 2nd half	81.4%	80.9%	67.2%	1.21×	1.24
Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur in 2nd half	71.0%	73.7%	69.1%	1.07×	1.36
Tottenham Hotspur or draw in 2nd half	47.7%	47.8%	63.7%	0.75×	2.09

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	56.6%	58.0%	56.7%	1.02×	1.72
Neither half drawn	43.4%	42.0%	43.3%	0.97×	2.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (DNB)	78.8%	74.7%	57.2%	1.31×	1.34
Tottenham Hotspur (DNB)	21.2%	25.3%	42.8%	0.59×	3.95

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to score first	65.0%	64.8%	52.0%	1.25×	1.54
Tottenham Hotspur to score first	31.0%	27.1%	43.3%	0.63×	3.70
No goal scored	4.0%	4.3%	4.9%	0.88×	23.27

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	57.2%	54.9%	58.2%	0.94×	1.82
Not both teams to score	42.8%	45.1%	41.8%	1.08×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	48.1%	44.3%	46.8%	0.95×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	28.7%	33.6%	30.0%	1.12×	2.98
Not both score & over 2.5	14.1%	12.3%	11.9%	1.04×	8.10
Both score & under 2.5	9.1%	8.4%	11.5%	0.73×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	82.2%	83.0%	82.2%	1.01×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	17.8%	17.0%	17.8%	0.95×	5.90

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	65.2%	67.5%	68.9%	0.98×	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	34.8%	32.5%	31.1%	1.04×	3.08

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	53.0%	56.0%	55.9%	1.00×	1.79
Both score 2nd half only	28.3%	26.6%	24.6%	1.08×	3.77
Both score 1st half only	12.2%	10.7%	13.1%	0.82×	9.31
Both score in both halves	6.5%	6.8%	6.7%	1.02×	14.78

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.3%	82.3%	80.4%	1.02×	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	18.7%	17.7%	19.6%	0.90×	5.66

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	61.4%	58.8%	61.9%	0.95×	1.70
A half without a goal	38.6%	41.2%	38.1%	1.08×	2.43

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.0%	42.1%	46.6%	0.90×	2.38
4-6 goals	35.5%	35.0%	32.7%	1.07×	2.85
0-1 goals	17.0%	20.2%	18.1%	1.12×	4.96
7+ goals	4.5%	1.8%	2.8%	0.65×	54.34

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur to score exactly 1	36.8%	36.0%	35.6%	1.01×	2.78
Tottenham Hotspur to score exactly 0	35.4%	36.0%	25.1%	1.43×	2.78
Tottenham Hotspur to score exactly 2	19.1%	19.6%	24.5%	0.80×	5.11
Tottenham Hotspur to score 3+	8.7%	8.5%	15.0%	0.56×	11.81

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to score 3+	37.0%	35.6%	22.9%	1.56×	2.81
Manchester United to score exactly 2	26.9%	26.5%	26.1%	1.02×	3.77
Manchester United to score exactly 1	24.7%	23.3%	29.6%	0.79×	4.30
Manchester United to score exactly 0	11.4%	14.3%	21.6%	0.66×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United leading at HT	45.5%	52.3%	36.2%	1.45×	1.91
Draw at HT	38.8%	37.9%	39.4%	0.96×	2.64
Tottenham Hotspur leading at HT	15.7%	15.4%	24.5%	0.63×	6.48

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United -1: 1	40.1%	42.7%	—	—	2.34
Manchester United -1: 2	36.8%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Manchester United -1: X	23.1%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (0:1)	40.1%	42.6%	24.0%	1.78×	2.35
Tottenham Hotspur (0:1)	36.8%	37.3%	56.9%	0.65×	2.69
Draw (0:1)	23.1%	24.3%	19.2%	1.26×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur (0:2)	59.9%	63.0%	76.0%	0.83×	1.59
Manchester United (0:2)	21.0%	20.3%	10.8%	1.89×	4.92
Draw (0:2)	19.0%	15.3%	13.3%	1.15×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur (0:3)	79.0%	80.6%	89.2%	0.90×	1.24
Draw (0:3)	11.8%	10.0%	7.5%	1.33×	10.00
Manchester United (0:3)	9.2%	5.8%	3.3%	1.75×	17.13

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur (0:4)	90.8%	94.6%	96.7%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.8%	4.6%	2.0%	2.26×	21.62
Manchester United (0:4)	3.4%	1.2%	1.4%	0.88×	83.28

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (1:0)	83.0%	81.4%	67.7%	1.20×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	11.1%	12.8%	16.6%	0.77×	7.81
Tottenham Hotspur (1:0)	6.0%	6.9%	15.8%	0.44×	14.46

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (2:0)	94.0%	94.0%	84.2%	1.12×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.3%	2.3%	9.3%	0.24×	44.09
Tottenham Hotspur (2:0)	1.7%	2.3%	6.6%	0.34×	44.27

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	53.5%	50.3%	49.7%	1.01×	1.99
1st half highest scoring	24.5%	24.1%	25.8%	0.94×	4.14
Halves equal	22.0%	24.1%	24.7%	0.98×	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to concede	64.6%	63.4%	74.9%	0.85×	1.58
Manchester United clean sheet	35.4%	36.6%	25.1%	1.46×	2.74

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United clean sheet in 1st half	67.9%	68.6%	59.4%	1.16×	1.46
Manchester United to concede in 1st half	32.1%	31.4%	40.6%	0.77×	3.19

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United over 2.5 corners	82.7%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Manchester United under 6.5 corners	71.6%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Manchester United over 3.5 corners	69.2%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Manchester United under 5.5 corners	59.6%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Manchester United over 4.5 corners	54.4%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
Manchester United under 4.5 corners	45.6%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Manchester United over 5.5 corners	40.4%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Manchester United under 3.5 corners	30.8%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Manchester United over 6.5 corners	28.4%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Manchester United under 2.5 corners	17.3%	19.1%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United over 0.5 goals	88.6%	87.3%	78.4%	1.11×	1.15
Manchester United under 3.5 goals	82.5%	82.1%	91.6%	0.90×	1.22
Manchester United over 1.5 goals	63.9%	63.5%	48.9%	1.30×	1.58
Manchester United under 2.5 goals	63.0%	63.5%	77.1%	0.82×	1.58
Manchester United over 2.5 goals	37.0%	36.5%	22.9%	1.60×	2.74
Manchester United under 1.5 goals	36.1%	36.5%	51.1%	0.71×	2.74
Manchester United over 3.5 goals	17.5%	17.9%	8.4%	2.14×	5.59
Manchester United under 0.5 goals	11.4%	12.7%	21.6%	0.59×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United under 1.5 in 1st half	78.3%	77.3%	84.5%	0.91×	1.30
Manchester United over 0.5 in 1st half	58.2%	58.1%	51.4%	1.13×	1.72
Manchester United under 0.5 in 1st half	41.8%	41.9%	48.6%	0.86×	2.39
Manchester United over 1.5 in 1st half	21.7%	22.8%	15.5%	1.47×	4.40

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	53.7%	51.6%	43.4%	1.19×	1.94
Tottenham Hotspur (home no bet)	46.3%	48.4%	56.6%	0.85×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United even goals	50.7%	50.6%	53.8%	0.94×	1.98
Manchester United odd goals	49.4%	49.4%	46.2%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	28.4%	28.9%	27.6%	1.04×	3.46
HT 1-0	24.8%	24.1%	21.8%	1.11×	4.14
HT 0-1	11.0%	10.9%	14.8%	0.73×	9.17
HT 2-0	10.8%	10.9%	8.1%	1.35×	9.17
HT 1-1	9.6%	7.1%	10.9%	0.65×	14.01
Any other HT score	6.5%	7.1%	5.3%	1.34×	14.06
HT 2-1	4.2%	2.3%	3.8%	0.62×	43.30
HT 0-2	2.1%	2.3%	4.5%	0.51×	43.45
HT 1-2	1.9%	2.3%	2.8%	0.82×	43.47
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.3%	1.0%	2.24×	43.55

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United at HT / Manchester United at FT	39.4%	41.2%	26.3%	1.57×	2.43
Draw at HT / Manchester United at FT	20.3%	21.7%	14.0%	1.55×	4.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.3%	12.7%	13.6%	0.93×	7.90
Tottenham Hotspur at HT / Tottenham Hotspur at FT	8.3%	6.0%	16.9%	0.36×	16.64
Draw at HT / Tottenham Hotspur at FT	7.2%	6.0%	12.0%	0.50×	16.67
Manchester United at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.5%	6.6%	0.53×	28.79
Tottenham Hotspur at HT / Draw at FT	4.0%	3.5%	4.8%	0.73×	28.81
Tottenham Hotspur at HT / Manchester United at FT	3.4%	3.5%	3.0%	1.16×	28.83
Manchester United at HT / Tottenham Hotspur at FT	1.5%	3.5%	3.5%	0.99×	28.90

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to score last	64.9%	62.3%	50.3%	1.24×	1.61
Tottenham Hotspur to score last	31.0%	32.8%	44.9%	0.73×	3.05
No goal scored	4.0%	4.3%	4.9%	0.88×	23.27

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.0%	95.6%	95.1%	1.01×	1.05
Manchester United to lead by 1 at any time	75.8%	78.0%	62.1%	1.26×	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	57.8%	55.1%	50.8%	1.09×	1.82
Manchester United to lead by 2 at any time	47.3%	44.0%	29.9%	1.47×	2.27
Tottenham Hotspur to lead by 1 at any time	36.2%	34.8%	51.4%	0.68×	2.87
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	27.1%	25.4%	21.2%	1.20×	3.93
Manchester United to lead by 3 at any time	24.4%	19.7%	13.1%	1.50×	5.09
Tottenham Hotspur to lead by 2 at any time	10.8%	10.4%	21.2%	0.49×	9.58
Tottenham Hotspur to lead by 3 at any time	2.7%	1.6%	8.1%	0.20×	61.66

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United most corners	45.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Tottenham Hotspur most corners	43.8%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	10.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.3%	87.4%	88.5%	0.99×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.5%	78.6%	79.2%	0.99×	1.27
1-4 goals	73.9%	72.4%	78.2%	0.93×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.4%	72.4%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.9%	63.4%	64.9%	0.98×	1.58
3-6 goals	57.7%	59.2%	55.8%	1.06×	1.69
1-3 goals	56.0%	59.2%	59.8%	0.99×	1.69
3-5 goals	51.6%	53.2%	51.9%	1.03×	1.88
2-3 goals	43.0%	43.6%	46.6%	0.94×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.1%	43.6%	41.6%	1.05×	2.30
4-6 goals	35.5%	39.1%	32.7%	1.20×	2.56
1-2 goals	33.7%	35.4%	36.7%	0.96×	2.83
4-5 goals	29.3%	30.3%	28.8%	1.05×	3.31
5-6 goals	17.6%	18.6%	14.3%	1.30×	5.37
7+ goals	4.5%	2.6%	2.8%	0.91×	39.13

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United never behind	59.8%	63.0%	48.6%	1.29×	1.59
Tottenham Hotspur never behind	20.2%	24.1%	37.9%	0.64×	4.15

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.8%	49.0%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.2%	51.0%	0.96×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.0%	51.7%	53.4%	0.97×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	46.0%	48.3%	46.6%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.0%	52.0%	51.8%	1.00×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.0%	48.0%	48.2%	0.99×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.0%	95.5%	95.1%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	89.4%	87.7%	93.3%	0.94×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	83.0%	82.4%	81.9%	1.01×	1.21
Under 4.5 goals	77.9%	77.3%	82.9%	0.93×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	62.2%	61.8%	58.5%	1.06×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	60.0%	61.7%	64.6%	0.96×	1.62
Over 3.5 goals	40.0%	38.3%	35.4%	1.08×	2.61
Under 2.5 goals	37.8%	38.2%	41.5%	0.92×	2.62
Over 4.5 goals	22.1%	22.7%	17.1%	1.33×	4.42
Under 1.5 goals	17.0%	17.6%	18.1%	0.97×	5.68
Over 5.5 goals	10.6%	12.3%	6.7%	1.83×	8.10
Under 0.5 goals	4.0%	4.5%	4.9%	0.93×	22.20

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.2%	97.2%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	88.0%	86.7%	92.5%	0.94×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	78.6%	75.9%	76.4%	0.99×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	73.1%	72.6%	79.1%	0.92×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	51.4%	51.8%	46.1%	1.12×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	48.6%	48.2%	53.9%	0.89×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	26.9%	27.4%	20.9%	1.31×	3.65
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	21.4%	24.1%	23.6%	1.02×	4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	12.0%	13.3%	7.5%	1.76×	7.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.8%	2.8%	2.9%	0.95×	36.08

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.7%	88.9%	87.4%	1.02×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.6%	71.2%	72.4%	0.98×	1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half	64.2%	63.7%	64.1%	0.99×	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	35.8%	36.3%	35.9%	1.01×	2.76
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.4%	28.8%	27.6%	1.04×	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.3%	11.1%	12.6%	0.88×	9.05

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	85.8%	85.3%	84.7%	1.01×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	69.0%	67.6%	75.9%	0.89×	1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	58.1%	54.9%	54.2%	1.01×	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	41.9%	45.1%	45.8%	0.99×	2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	31.0%	32.4%	24.1%	1.34×	3.09
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	14.2%	14.7%	15.3%	0.96×	6.79

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur not to score in both halves	84.6%	84.4%	76.8%	1.10×	1.19
Manchester United not to score in both halves	57.7%	57.6%	68.7%	0.84×	1.74
Manchester United to score in both halves	42.3%	42.4%	31.3%	1.35×	2.36
Tottenham Hotspur to score in both halves	15.4%	15.6%	23.2%	0.67×	6.41

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	57.2%	58.4%	58.2%	1.00×	1.71
Only Manchester United scores	31.4%	33.3%	20.3%	1.64×	3.00
Only Tottenham Hotspur scores	7.4%	7.2%	16.8%	0.43×	13.91
Neither team scores	4.0%	4.6%	4.9%	0.94×	21.82

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	23.2%	0.97×	4.42
Exactly 2 goals	20.8%	22.6%	23.5%	0.96×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	17.9%	17.4%	18.4%	0.95×	5.74
Exactly 1 goals	12.9%	12.1%	13.3%	0.91×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	11.5%	12.1%	10.4%	1.16×	8.28
6 or more goals	10.6%	12.1%	6.7%	1.79×	8.28
Exactly 0 goals	4.0%	4.4%	4.9%	0.91×	22.66

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	58.1%	53.4%	54.2%	0.99×	1.87
1 goal in 2nd half	27.7%	29.8%	30.6%	0.97×	3.35
No goals in 2nd half	14.2%	14.5%	15.3%	0.95×	6.88

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur not to win both halves	97.1%	97.2%	91.2%	1.07×	1.03
Manchester United not to win both halves	76.2%	75.1%	86.5%	0.87×	1.33
Manchester United to win both halves	23.8%	24.9%	13.5%	1.84×	4.02
Tottenham Hotspur to win both halves	2.9%	2.8%	8.8%	0.32×	36.02

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to win either half	74.0%	73.0%	59.0%	1.24×	1.37
Tottenham Hotspur to win neither half	68.6%	67.9%	51.5%	1.32×	1.47
Tottenham Hotspur to win either half	31.4%	32.1%	48.5%	0.66×	3.12
Manchester United to win neither half	26.0%	27.0%	41.0%	0.66×	3.71

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur not to win to nil	92.7%	92.0%	83.2%	1.11×	1.09
Manchester United not to win to nil	68.6%	69.7%	79.7%	0.87×	1.44
Manchester United to win to nil	31.4%	30.3%	20.3%	1.49×	3.30
Tottenham Hotspur to win to nil	7.4%	8.0%	16.8%	0.47×	12.57

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United by 1	23.1%	24.2%	19.2%	1.26×	4.14
Manchester United by 3+	21.0%	24.1%	10.8%	2.25×	4.14
Draw	19.7%	16.9%	24.7%	0.68×	5.91
Manchester United by 2	19.0%	16.9%	13.3%	1.27×	5.91
Tottenham Hotspur by 1	11.1%	11.8%	16.6%	0.71×	8.48
Tottenham Hotspur by 2	4.3%	2.7%	9.3%	0.29×	36.94
Tottenham Hotspur by 3+	1.7%	2.7%	6.6%	0.41×	37.03