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Manchester United v West Ham United — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 4 February 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

Manchester United
3–0
0.97 – 1.18 xG
West Ham United
Shots
12 – 22
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
7 – 12
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.64
Goals − xG
+2.03 – -1.19
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.71.01.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Rasmus Højlund 22' — goalAlejandro Garnacho 48' — goalAlejandro Garnacho 83' — goal
Manchester United 0.97 xGWest Ham United 1.19 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Naif Aguerd 10' — Missed Shot (0.15 xG, From Corner)Tomas Soucek 10' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Bruno Fernandes 14' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Diogo Dalot 15' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Ben Johnson 16' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Tomas Soucek 16' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Mohammed Kudus 17' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)James Ward-Prowse 19' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Direct Freekick)Rasmus Højlund 22' — Goal (0.15 xG, Open Play)Ben Johnson 25' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)Ben Johnson 26' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Mohammed Kudus 30' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Edson Álvarez 40' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Jarrod Bowen 41' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)James Ward-Prowse 43' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Diogo Dalot 45' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Rasmus Højlund 45' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Emerson 47' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Alejandro Garnacho 48' — Goal (0.06 xG, Open Play)Marcus Rashford 50' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Diogo Dalot 53' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Emerson 54' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Bruno Fernandes 57' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Marcus Rashford 57' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Jarrod Bowen 68' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Emerson 71' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Kurt Zouma 76' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, From Corner)Maxwel Cornet 76' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Kalvin Phillips 79' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Alejandro Garnacho 83' — Goal (0.32 xG, Open Play)Edson Álvarez 86' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Scott McTominay 92' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Mohammed Kudus 93' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Mohammed Kudus 95' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)
Manchester United attacking right West Ham United attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
10' West Ham United Naif Aguerd 0.15 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot —
10' West Ham United Tomas Soucek 0.06 From Corner — Missed Shot James Ward-Prowse
14' Manchester United Bruno Fernandes 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Marcus Rashford
15' Manchester United Diogo Dalot 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Alejandro Garnacho
16' West Ham United Ben Johnson 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Kurt Zouma
16' West Ham United Tomas Soucek 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Vladimir Coufal
17' West Ham United Mohammed Kudus 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot —
19' West Ham United James Ward-Prowse 0.12 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot —
22' Manchester United Rasmus Højlund 0.15 Open Play Right Foot Goal Casemiro
25' West Ham United Ben Johnson 0.06 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot James Ward-Prowse
26' West Ham United Ben Johnson 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Mohammed Kudus
30' West Ham United Mohammed Kudus 0.08 Open Play — Saved Shot Jarrod Bowen
40' West Ham United Edson Álvarez 0.05 From Corner — Blocked Shot James Ward-Prowse
41' West Ham United Jarrod Bowen 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Edson Álvarez
43' West Ham United James Ward-Prowse 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
45' Manchester United Diogo Dalot 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Bruno Fernandes
45' Manchester United Rasmus Højlund 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Alejandro Garnacho
47' West Ham United Emerson 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
48' Manchester United Alejandro Garnacho 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Goal Bruno Fernandes
50' Manchester United Marcus Rashford 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Luke Shaw
53' Manchester United Diogo Dalot 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Bruno Fernandes
54' West Ham United Emerson 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot James Ward-Prowse
57' Manchester United Bruno Fernandes 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Alejandro Garnacho
57' Manchester United Marcus Rashford 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
68' West Ham United Jarrod Bowen 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Edson Álvarez
71' West Ham United Emerson 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot —
76' West Ham United Kurt Zouma 0.12 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Maxwel Cornet
76' West Ham United Maxwel Cornet 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
79' West Ham United Kalvin Phillips 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
83' Manchester United Alejandro Garnacho 0.32 Open Play Right Foot Goal Scott McTominay
86' West Ham United Edson Álvarez 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Maxwel Cornet
92' Manchester United Scott McTominay 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Marcus Rashford
93' West Ham United Mohammed Kudus 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Maxwel Cornet
95' West Ham United Mohammed Kudus 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Edson Álvarez

Players

West Ham United

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Mohammed Kudus AML 90 0 0 4 1 0.19 0.02 0.32
Emerson DL 90 0 0 3 0 0.17 0.00 0.24
Naif Aguerd DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.15 0.00 0.15
James Ward-Prowse AMC 90 0 0 2 4 0.15 0.25 0.18
Jarrod Bowen FW 90 0 0 2 1 0.12 0.08 0.27
Kurt Zouma DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.12 0.03 0.05
Ben Johnson AMR 90 0 0 3 0 0.11 0.00 0.14
Edson Álvarez DMC 90 0 0 2 3 0.06 0.19 0.43
Tomas Soucek DMC 73 0 0 2 0 0.10 0.00 0.04
Vladimir Coufal DR 73 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.19
Alphonse Areola GK 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lukasz Fabianski Sub 43 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Maxwel Cornet Sub 17 0 0 1 3 0.03 0.14 0.03
Kalvin Phillips Sub 17 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.03

Manchester United

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Alejandro Garnacho AMR 90 2 0 2 3 0.38 0.19 0.62
Bruno Fernandes AMC 90 0 1 2 3 0.12 0.11 0.38
Marcus Rashford AML 90 0 0 2 2 0.11 0.09 0.18
Diogo Dalot DR 90 0 0 3 0 0.07 0.00 0.38
Harry Maguire DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.18
Casemiro DMC 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.15 0.44
André Onana GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.18
Rasmus Højlund FW 89 1 0 2 0 0.22 0.00 0.56
Luke Shaw DL 89 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.15
Lisandro Martínez DC 72 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Kobbie Mainoo DMC 65 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Scott McTominay Sub 25 0 1 1 1 0.07 0.32 0.40
Raphael Varane Sub 18 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Antony Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Victor Lindelöf Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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