Manchester United v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 20 April 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 4
On target
2 – 2
Shots in box
4 – 1
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.25 – 0.14
Goals − xG
-1.14 – +0.81
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Manchester United win
39.8%
Draw
26.9%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
33.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWWDWWLWD last 10
scored 20
from 20.9 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.36–1.22 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.65–1.21 | 1-1 11% | 54% | 57% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Manchester United 1.14 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 0.19 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Manchester United attacking right
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Nélson Semedo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | André |
| 33' |
 Manchester United |
Christian Eriksen | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 35' |
Manchester United |
Christian Eriksen | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 43' |
Manchester United |
Kobbie Mainoo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alejandro Garnacho |
| 45' |
Manchester United |
Rasmus Højlund | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Manchester United |
Patrick Dorgu | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 57' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 71' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Diogo Dalot |
| 72' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Noussair Mazraoui |
| 72' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alejandro Garnacho |
| 76' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Pablo Sarabia | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 81' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Rodrigo Gomes |
| 82' |
Manchester United |
Mason Mount | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alejandro Garnacho |
| 85' |
Manchester United |
Mason Mount | 0.52 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Eriksen |
| 93' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 96' |
Manchester United |
Alejandro Garnacho | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Harry Amass |
Players
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Eriksen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.52 | 0.80 |
| Alejandro Garnacho AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.28 | 0.87 |
| André Onana GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Tyler Fredricson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Noussair Mazraoui DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.28 |
| Harry Amass DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.71 |
| Victor Lindelöf DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rasmus Højlund FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patrick Dorgu DMR | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kobbie Mainoo AMC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Manuel Ugarte MC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mason Mount Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Bruno Fernandes Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Diogo Dalot Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.18 |
| Chido Obi-Martin Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Leny Yoro Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Cunha AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| Santiago Bueno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Marshall Munetsi AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| João Gomes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Toti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emmanuel Agbadou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Bentley GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| André MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Rayan Ait Nouri DML | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nélson Semedo DMR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Pablo Sarabia Sub | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Rodrigo Gomes Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Matt Doherty Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nasser Djiga Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |