Mantova v Pisa — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 September 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627

ITA-Serie B results-only Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

Mantova

15:15 UTC

Pisa

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 295h before kick-off

Mantova win

39.6%

model 39.0%

Draw

29.4%

model 27.5%

Pisa win

31.0%

model 33.5%

402931

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (567 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.9%
2-1 8.7%
1-2 8.0%
0-0 6.8%
1-0 6.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	56.2%	Under 2.5	43.8%
BTTS yes	60.6%	BTTS no	39.4%
Mantova 1+	78.3%	Mantova 2+	45.2%
Pisa 1+	75.5%	Pisa 2+	41.0%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.41. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

46/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

92%

★ Best pick

Over 2.5 goals

Over/Under · usually 48%

57.5% fair odds 1.74

strong signal · 12440 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Mantova (2:0)

Handicap 2:0 · usually 90%

83.6% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 4395 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Mantova carry the stronger rating, 1503 Elo against 1333.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Mantova have an estimated 39.6% win probability, against 31.0% for Pisa and 29.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.53 for Mantova and 1.41 for Pisa.

Why Mantova

Mantova carry the stronger rating, 1503 Elo against 1333. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.4%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.53 to 1.41. Draws run at 32% in this competition.

Why Pisa can win

Away from home Pisa average 0.82 xG a match.

Key players

Pisa's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Stefano Moreo (0.28), Filip Stojilkovic (0.24), Henrik Meister (0.21).

Availability

No lineup on record for Mantova, so availability is unknown. 1 of Pisa's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Mantova: 52% possession, 14.6 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Pisa: 40% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.12 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Mantova are the model's most likely outcome at 39.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.9%. Confidence 46/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Pisa are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 7.9 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

WLLLLLLLLL last 10 scored 6 from 11.2 xG conceded 23 from 15.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	392833	1.53–1.41	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	312841	1.32–1.55	1-1 13%	55%	59%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova to win	39.0%	37.5%	42.8%	0.88×	2.67
Pisa to win	33.5%	31.4%	25.4%	1.24×	3.18
Draw	27.5%	27.3%	32.0%	0.85×	3.66

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova & both teams score	21.3%	21.5%	18.9%	1.14×	4.65
Draw & both teams score	20.7%	21.5%	23.0%	0.94×	4.65
Mantova & not both score	17.7%	18.2%	24.0%	0.76×	5.49
Pisa & both teams score	18.6%	18.2%	12.3%	1.49×	5.49
Pisa & not both score	14.9%	12.6%	13.3%	0.95×	7.91
Draw & not both score	6.8%	7.7%	9.1%	0.84×	13.05

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova & over 1.5	32.3%	31.8%	31.8%	1.00×	3.15
Pisa & over 1.5	27.5%	26.5%	18.8%	1.41×	3.78
Mantova & over 2.5	26.1%	26.5%	24.4%	1.09×	3.78
Mantova & under 3.5	24.8%	21.8%	32.0%	0.68×	4.59
Pisa & over 2.5	22.2%	21.8%	15.0%	1.45×	4.59
Pisa & under 3.5	21.7%	21.8%	19.9%	1.10×	4.59
Draw & over 1.5	20.7%	21.8%	23.0%	0.95×	4.59
Draw & under 2.5	19.7%	17.7%	23.8%	0.74×	5.66
Draw & under 3.5	19.7%	17.7%	23.8%	0.74×	5.66
Mantova & over 3.5	14.2%	12.5%	10.9%	1.15×	8.03
Mantova & under 2.5	12.9%	12.5%	18.5%	0.67×	8.03
Pisa & over 3.5	11.8%	12.5%	5.6%	2.22×	8.03
Pisa & under 2.5	11.2%	12.5%	10.5%	1.19×	8.03
Mantova & under 1.5	6.7%	7.6%	11.1%	0.68×	13.17
Draw & under 1.5	6.8%	7.6%	9.1%	0.83×	13.17
Draw & over 2.5	7.8%	7.6%	8.4%	0.91×	13.17
Draw & over 3.5	7.8%	7.6%	8.4%	0.91×	13.17
Pisa & under 1.5	6.0%	7.6%	6.8%	1.12×	13.17

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova (1UP)	57.2%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Pisa (1UP)	52.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova (2UP)	39.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.66
Pisa (2UP)	33.5%	36.3%	—	—	2.76

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	34.9%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Mantova to win 2nd half	33.4%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Pisa to win 2nd half	31.8%	32.4%	—	—	3.09

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa (+2.5)	92.2%	92.3%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Pisa (+1.5)	80.1%	83.1%	80.4%	1.03×	1.20
Mantova (+0.5)	66.5%	68.0%	74.6%	0.91×	1.47
Pisa (+0.5)	61.0%	62.8%	57.3%	1.10×	1.59
Mantova (-0.5)	39.0%	37.2%	42.8%	0.87×	2.69
Pisa (-0.5)	33.5%	32.0%	25.4%	1.26×	3.13
Mantova (-1.5)	19.9%	16.9%	19.6%	0.86×	5.91
Mantova (-2.5)	7.8%	7.7%	6.8%	1.14×	12.96

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa to concede	78.3%	78.6%	77.8%	1.01×	1.27
Pisa clean sheet	21.7%	21.4%	22.3%	0.96×	4.67

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa clean sheet in 1st half	51.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Pisa to concede in 1st half	48.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa under 6.5 corners	88.2%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Pisa under 5.5 corners	79.7%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Pisa over 2.5 corners	67.6%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Pisa under 4.5 corners	67.2%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Pisa under 3.5 corners	50.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Pisa over 3.5 corners	49.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Pisa over 4.5 corners	32.8%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Pisa under 2.5 corners	32.4%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Pisa over 5.5 corners	20.3%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
Pisa over 6.5 corners	11.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.75

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa under 3.5 goals	94.6%	92.1%	98.3%	0.94×	1.09
Pisa under 2.5 goals	83.2%	82.4%	90.9%	0.91×	1.21
Pisa over 0.5 goals	75.5%	76.4%	67.0%	1.14×	1.31
Pisa under 1.5 goals	59.0%	58.5%	69.4%	0.84×	1.71
Pisa over 1.5 goals	41.0%	41.5%	30.6%	1.36×	2.41
Pisa under 0.5 goals	24.6%	23.6%	33.0%	0.71×	4.24
Pisa over 2.5 goals	16.8%	17.6%	9.1%	1.92×	5.69
Pisa over 3.5 goals	5.4%	7.9%	1.8%	4.53×	12.62

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa under 1.5 in 1st half	89.1%	87.0%	—	—	1.15
Pisa under 0.5 in 1st half	57.0%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Pisa over 0.5 in 1st half	43.0%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Pisa over 1.5 in 1st half	10.9%	13.0%	—	—	7.72

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova (away no bet)	58.6%	58.5%	57.2%	1.02×	1.71
Draw (away no bet)	41.4%	41.5%	42.8%	0.97×	2.41

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa even goals	53.0%	53.5%	55.5%	0.96×	1.87
Pisa odd goals	47.0%	46.5%	44.5%	1.04×	2.15

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.4%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.6%	17.4%	—	—	5.74

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	68.7%	66.6%	—	—	1.50
Both halves under 1.5 goals	31.3%	33.4%	—	—	3.00

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	59.2%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Mantova to score 2+ in a row	35.7%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
Pisa to score 2+ in a row	31.3%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.6%	21.2%	—	—	4.72
Mantova to score 3+ in a row	12.2%	12.8%	—	—	7.84
Pisa to score 3+ in a row	9.8%	7.9%	—	—	12.72

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova corners (+3.5)	90.9%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Mantova corners (+2.5)	85.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Pisa corners (+3.5)	77.4%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Mantova corners (+1.5)	77.1%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Pisa corners (+2.5)	67.9%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Pisa corners (+1.5)	56.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Mantova corners (-1.5)	43.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Mantova corners (-2.5)	32.1%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Mantova corners (-3.5)	22.6%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Pisa corners (-1.5)	22.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Pisa corners (-2.5)	14.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Pisa corners (-3.5)	9.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	53.4%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	27.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	18.8%	22.7%	—	—	4.41

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	87.1%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	81.2%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	73.6%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	64.2%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	58.2%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	53.4%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	46.6%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	41.8%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	35.8%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 10.5 corners	26.4%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Over 11.5 corners	18.8%	19.2%	—	—	5.20
Over 12.5 corners	12.9%	17.0%	—	—	5.87

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.9%	11.2%	14.8%	0.76×	8.90
0-0	6.8%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.49
0-1	6.0%	7.4%	6.8%	1.10×	13.49
0-2	5.2%	7.4%	3.9%	1.91×	13.49
1-0	6.7%	7.4%	11.1%	0.67×	13.49
1-2	8.0%	7.4%	7.4%	1.01×	13.48
2-0	6.2%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.49
2-1	8.7%	7.4%	9.8%	0.76×	13.48
2-2	6.1%	7.4%	7.4%	1.01×	13.49
0-3	2.5%	1.7%	2.3%	0.76×	58.10
0-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.8%	2.29×	58.11
1-3	3.8%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.10
1-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.3%	6.88×	58.11
2-3	2.9%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.10
2-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	58.11
3-0	3.2%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.10
3-1	4.5%	1.7%	4.5%	0.38×	58.10
3-2	3.1%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.10
3-3	1.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.11
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.4%	4.59×	58.11
4-0	1.2%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.11
4-1	1.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.29×	58.11
4-2	1.2%	1.7%	1.0%	1.72×	58.11
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.3%	6.88×	58.11
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.1%	13.77×	58.11
Any other score	3.4%	1.7%	2.1%	0.81×	58.10

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova leading at HT (DNB)	55.2%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Pisa leading at HT (DNB)	44.8%	45.1%	—	—	2.22

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova or Pisa (12)	72.5%	72.7%	68.0%	1.07×	1.38
Mantova or draw (1X)	66.5%	68.6%	74.6%	0.92×	1.46
Pisa or draw (X2)	61.0%	62.5%	57.3%	1.09×	1.60

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova or draw at HT	74.0%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Pisa or draw at HT	68.0%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Mantova or Pisa at HT	58.0%	57.3%	—	—	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova or draw (1UP)	66.5%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Pisa or draw (1UP)	61.0%	69.7%	—	—	1.44

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova or draw in 2nd half	68.2%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Pisa or draw in 2nd half	66.6%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Mantova or Pisa in 2nd half	65.1%	67.6%	—	—	1.48

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	60.6%	60.1%	—	—	1.67
Neither half drawn	39.4%	39.9%	—	—	2.50

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova (DNB)	53.8%	51.5%	62.8%	0.82×	1.94
Pisa (DNB)	46.2%	48.5%	37.2%	1.30×	2.06

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova to score first	48.6%	46.1%	—	—	2.17
Pisa to score first	44.6%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
No goal scored	6.8%	6.3%	—	—	15.91

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.6%	58.6%	53.9%	1.09×	1.71
Not both teams to score	39.4%	41.4%	46.1%	0.90×	2.41

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	47.7%	45.2%	39.3%	1.15×	2.21
Not both score & under 2.5	30.9%	34.0%	37.9%	0.90×	2.94
Both score & under 2.5	12.9%	11.9%	14.8%	0.81×	8.41
Not both score & over 2.5	8.5%	8.5%	8.4%	1.01×	11.81

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	81.5%	83.1%	86.0%	0.97×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	18.5%	16.9%	14.0%	1.21×	5.91

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	66.4%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Both teams to score in 2nd half	33.6%	32.0%	—	—	3.13

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	52.3%	54.1%	—	—	1.85
Both score 2nd half only	26.8%	25.9%	—	—	3.86
Both score 1st half only	14.1%	11.9%	—	—	8.38
Both score in both halves	6.9%	7.1%	—	—	14.06

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.0%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Both teams to score by HT	21.0%	20.4%	—	—	4.90

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	58.5%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
A half without a goal	41.5%	42.4%	—	—	2.36

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.8%	46.6%	48.8%	0.96×	2.15
4-6 goals	30.8%	30.8%	23.4%	1.32×	3.24
0-1 goals	19.4%	19.2%	26.8%	0.72×	5.21
7+ goals	3.0%	2.0%	1.4%	1.45×	50.21

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa to score exactly 1	34.5%	32.5%	36.5%	0.89×	3.08
Pisa to score exactly 0	24.6%	23.1%	33.0%	0.70×	4.32
Pisa to score exactly 2	24.2%	23.1%	21.6%	1.07×	4.32
Pisa to score 3+	16.8%	18.4%	9.1%	2.02×	5.43

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova to score exactly 1	33.1%	32.1%	35.9%	0.90×	3.12
Mantova to score exactly 2	25.3%	26.4%	26.0%	1.02×	3.79
Mantova to score exactly 0	21.7%	22.9%	22.3%	1.03×	4.37
Mantova to score 3+	19.8%	18.3%	16.1%	1.14×	5.45

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.0%	42.7%	—	—	2.34
Mantova leading at HT	32.0%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Pisa leading at HT	26.0%	28.7%	—	—	3.48

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova -1: 2	61.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Mantova -1: 1	19.9%	17.9%	—	—	5.60
Mantova -1: X	19.1%	17.8%	—	—	5.60

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa (0:1)	61.0%	60.3%	57.3%	1.05×	1.66
Mantova (0:1)	19.9%	18.2%	19.6%	0.93×	5.51
Draw (0:1)	19.1%	18.2%	23.3%	0.78×	5.51

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa (0:2)	80.1%	83.0%	80.4%	1.03×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	12.1%	11.4%	13.0%	0.88×	8.79
Mantova (0:2)	7.8%	7.7%	6.8%	1.14×	12.95

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa (0:3)	92.2%	92.6%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.3%	6.4%	4.6%	1.39×	15.58
Mantova (0:3)	2.5%	2.6%	2.3%	1.14×	38.97

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa (0:4)	97.5%	97.7%	97.8%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.8%	1.4%	1.4%	1.03×	70.56
Mantova (0:4)	0.7%	1.4%	1.0%	1.42×	70.60

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova (1:0)	66.5%	69.3%	74.6%	0.93×	1.44
Draw (1:0)	17.5%	17.5%	15.6%	1.12×	5.70
Pisa (1:0)	16.0%	17.5%	9.9%	1.78×	5.70

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova (2:0)	84.0%	83.6%	90.1%	0.93×	1.20
Draw (2:0)	10.2%	11.5%	6.5%	1.77×	8.68
Pisa (2:0)	5.8%	6.7%	3.5%	1.91×	14.99

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.8%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
1st half highest scoring	26.2%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Halves equal	26.0%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova to concede	75.5%	77.1%	67.0%	1.15×	1.30
Mantova clean sheet	24.6%	22.9%	33.0%	0.69×	4.36

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova clean sheet in 1st half	57.0%	57.0%	—	—	1.75
Mantova to concede in 1st half	43.0%	43.0%	—	—	2.33

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova over 2.5 corners	79.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Mantova under 6.5 corners	76.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Mantova under 5.5 corners	65.3%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Mantova over 3.5 corners	64.7%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Mantova under 4.5 corners	51.1%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Mantova over 4.5 corners	48.9%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Mantova under 3.5 corners	35.3%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Mantova over 5.5 corners	34.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Mantova over 6.5 corners	23.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Mantova under 2.5 corners	20.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova under 3.5 goals	93.1%	92.3%	95.9%	0.96×	1.08
Mantova under 2.5 goals	80.2%	82.2%	83.9%	0.98×	1.22
Mantova over 0.5 goals	78.3%	77.9%	77.8%	1.00×	1.28
Mantova under 1.5 goals	54.8%	53.3%	58.0%	0.92×	1.88
Mantova over 1.5 goals	45.2%	46.7%	42.0%	1.11×	2.14
Mantova under 0.5 goals	21.7%	22.1%	22.3%	0.99×	4.53
Mantova over 2.5 goals	19.8%	17.8%	16.1%	1.11×	5.61
Mantova over 3.5 goals	6.9%	7.7%	4.1%	1.86×	13.04

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova under 1.5 in 1st half	85.9%	87.2%	—	—	1.15
Mantova under 0.5 in 1st half	51.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Mantova over 0.5 in 1st half	48.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Mantova over 1.5 in 1st half	14.1%	12.8%	—	—	7.83

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa (home no bet)	54.9%	52.1%	44.2%	1.18×	1.92
Draw (home no bet)	45.1%	47.9%	55.8%	0.86×	2.09

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova even goals	52.3%	50.9%	51.0%	1.00×	1.96
Mantova odd goals	47.7%	49.1%	49.0%	1.00×	2.04

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.8%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
HT 1-0	19.2%	20.1%	—	—	4.98
HT 0-1	16.3%	20.0%	—	—	5.00
HT 1-1	11.2%	10.9%	—	—	9.15
HT 2-0	6.4%	8.0%	—	—	12.47
Any other HT score	4.8%	2.5%	—	—	40.33
HT 0-2	4.7%	2.5%	—	—	40.34
HT 2-1	3.6%	2.5%	—	—	40.39
HT 1-2	3.1%	2.5%	—	—	40.41
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.5%	—	—	40.50

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova at HT / Mantova at FT	23.3%	20.5%	—	—	4.87
Pisa at HT / Pisa at FT	18.3%	17.2%	—	—	5.82
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.3%	17.2%	—	—	5.82
Draw at HT / Mantova at FT	13.2%	12.2%	—	—	8.20
Draw at HT / Pisa at FT	12.5%	12.2%	—	—	8.21
Mantova at HT / Draw at FT	6.0%	6.4%	—	—	15.58
Pisa at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.4%	—	—	15.59
Mantova at HT / Pisa at FT	2.7%	3.7%	—	—	27.32
Pisa at HT / Mantova at FT	2.5%	3.7%	—	—	27.33

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova to score last	48.6%	46.4%	—	—	2.16
Pisa to score last	44.6%	42.7%	—	—	2.34
No goal scored	6.8%	6.3%	—	—	15.91

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.2%	93.6%	—	—	1.07
Mantova to lead by 1 at any time	57.2%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Pisa to lead by 1 at any time	52.5%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	49.1%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Mantova to lead by 2 at any time	26.8%	25.8%	—	—	3.88
Pisa to lead by 2 at any time	22.6%	21.3%	—	—	4.69
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.8%	17.3%	—	—	5.78
Mantova to lead by 3 at any time	10.1%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
Pisa to lead by 3 at any time	7.8%	7.6%	—	—	13.16

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova most corners	55.3%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Pisa most corners	33.0%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Corners level	11.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.63

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.5%	87.1%	87.3%	1.00×	1.15
2-6 goals	77.5%	77.9%	72.0%	1.08×	1.28
1-4 goals	75.8%	77.9%	82.1%	0.95×	1.28
2-5 goals	72.8%	72.1%	69.6%	1.04×	1.39
2-4 goals	63.2%	62.7%	64.5%	0.97×	1.60
1-3 goals	59.4%	58.8%	66.4%	0.89×	1.70
3-6 goals	53.2%	52.9%	46.3%	1.14×	1.89
3-5 goals	48.4%	47.4%	43.9%	1.08×	2.11
2-3 goals	46.8%	47.4%	48.8%	0.97×	2.11
3-4 goals	38.8%	39.0%	38.8%	1.01×	2.56
1-2 goals	37.0%	39.0%	43.5%	0.90×	2.56
4-6 goals	30.8%	34.6%	23.4%	1.48×	2.89
4-5 goals	26.1%	28.5%	21.0%	1.36×	3.51
5-6 goals	14.3%	13.5%	7.6%	1.77×	7.40
7+ goals	3.0%	2.2%	1.4%	1.63×	44.56

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa never behind	36.0%	47.3%	—	—	2.11
Mantova never behind	40.7%	46.2%	—	—	2.16

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	53.1%	50.0%	53.4%	0.94×	2.00
Odd number of goals	46.9%	50.0%	46.6%	1.07×	2.00

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.9%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.1%	48.4%	—	—	2.06

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.6%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.4%	48.5%	—	—	2.06

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	93.2%	92.3%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	92.3%	92.3%	96.3%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	82.6%	81.7%	91.1%	0.90×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	80.6%	81.7%	73.3%	1.12×	1.22
Under 3.5 goals	66.2%	67.5%	75.4%	0.90×	1.48
Over 2.5 goals	56.2%	57.5%	47.5%	1.21×	1.74
Under 2.5 goals	43.8%	42.5%	52.5%	0.81×	2.35
Over 3.5 goals	33.8%	32.5%	24.6%	1.32×	3.08
Under 1.5 goals	19.4%	18.3%	26.8%	0.68×	5.46
Over 4.5 goals	17.4%	18.3%	8.9%	2.06×	5.46
Over 5.5 goals	7.7%	7.7%	3.8%	2.06×	12.95
Under 0.5 goals	6.8%	7.7%	9.1%	0.85×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.8%	97.3%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	91.4%	92.0%	96.0%	0.96×	1.09
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	79.2%	76.2%	89.5%	0.85×	1.31
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	74.3%	71.7%	64.0%	1.12×	1.39
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	56.5%	58.0%	68.1%	0.85×	1.73
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	43.5%	42.0%	31.9%	1.32×	2.38
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	25.7%	28.3%	36.0%	0.79×	3.54
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	20.8%	23.8%	10.5%	2.26×	4.20
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.6%	8.0%	4.0%	2.02×	12.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.2%	2.7%	1.4%	1.94×	36.68

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.5%	88.3%	—	—	1.13
Over 0.5 in 1st half	70.2%	73.4%	—	—	1.36
Under 1.5 in 1st half	65.3%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Over 1.5 in 1st half	34.7%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.8%	26.6%	—	—	3.75
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.5%	11.7%	—	—	8.58

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.5%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	75.3%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	48.4%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	51.6%	49.8%	—	—	2.01
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.7%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.5%	17.4%	—	—	5.76

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa not to score in both halves	75.5%	76.2%	—	—	1.31
Mantova not to score in both halves	72.0%	72.8%	—	—	1.37
Mantova to score in both halves	28.0%	27.2%	—	—	3.67
Pisa to score in both halves	24.5%	23.8%	—	—	4.21

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	60.6%	60.8%	53.9%	1.13×	1.65
Only Mantova scores	17.7%	17.1%	24.0%	0.71×	5.83
Only Pisa scores	14.9%	11.1%	13.3%	0.84×	9.04
Neither team scores	6.8%	7.2%	9.1%	0.78×	13.97

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.4%	22.3%	25.9%	0.86×	4.48
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.3%	23.0%	0.97×	4.48
Exactly 4 goals	16.4%	17.6%	15.9%	1.11×	5.69
Exactly 1 goals	12.6%	12.3%	17.8%	0.69×	8.13
Exactly 5 goals	9.6%	7.8%	5.3%	1.48×	12.88
6 or more goals	7.7%	7.8%	3.8%	2.07×	12.89
Exactly 0 goals	6.8%	7.8%	9.1%	0.85×	12.89

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	51.6%	49.9%	—	—	2.01
1 goal in 2nd half	29.9%	26.8%	—	—	3.74
No goals in 2nd half	18.5%	16.6%	—	—	6.02

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa not to win both halves	91.5%	92.2%	—	—	1.08
Mantova not to win both halves	89.1%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Mantova to win both halves	10.9%	12.0%	—	—	8.33
Pisa to win both halves	8.5%	7.8%	—	—	12.87

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova to win either half	54.4%	51.2%	—	—	1.96
Pisa to win neither half	50.7%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Pisa to win either half	49.3%	49.0%	—	—	2.04
Mantova to win neither half	45.6%	48.8%	—	—	2.05

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Pisa not to win to nil	85.1%	88.1%	86.8%	1.02×	1.14
Mantova not to win to nil	82.3%	82.6%	76.0%	1.09×	1.21
Mantova to win to nil	17.7%	17.4%	24.0%	0.72×	5.76
Pisa to win to nil	14.9%	11.9%	13.3%	0.90×	8.39

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.5%	27.4%	32.0%	0.86×	3.65
Mantova by 1	19.1%	17.3%	23.3%	0.74×	5.78
Pisa by 1	17.5%	17.3%	15.6%	1.11×	5.78
Mantova by 2	12.1%	11.8%	13.0%	0.91×	8.46
Pisa by 2	10.2%	11.8%	6.5%	1.82×	8.46
Mantova by 3+	7.8%	7.3%	6.8%	1.08×	13.66
Pisa by 3+	5.8%	7.3%	3.5%	2.09×	13.66