Maritimo v Rio Ave FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 13 December 2026 · POR-Primeira Liga · 2627
Primeira Liga
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-0 11.7%
- 1-1 11.3%
- 2-1 9.6%
- 2-0 9.4%
- 0-1 7.4%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 50.2% | Under 2.5 | 49.8% |
| BTTS yes | 51.6% | BTTS no | 48.4% |
| Maritimo 1+ | 80.9% | Maritimo 2+ | 49.3% |
| Rio Ave FC 1+ | 64.2% | Rio Ave FC 2+ | 27.5% |
Expected goals 1.66 – 1.03. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Maritimo carry the stronger rating, 1515 Elo against 1417.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Maritimo have only 4 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Maritimo have an estimated 52.4% win probability, against 23.9% for Rio Ave FC and 23.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.66 for Maritimo and 1.03 for Rio Ave FC.
Why Maritimo
Maritimo carry the stronger rating, 1515 Elo against 1417.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 23.7%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.
Why Rio Ave FC can win
Nothing in the data singles out Rio Ave FC.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Maritimo, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Rio Ave FC, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Maritimo: 43% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Rio Ave FC: 46% possession, 6.8 shots a match, 15.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Maritimo are the model's most likely outcome at 52.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 11.7%. Confidence 64/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.66–1.03 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.74–0.96 | 1-0 12% | 51% | 50% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.