Marseille v Angers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 29 October 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 12
On target
6 – 6
Shots in box
8 – 7
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.24
Goals − xG
+0.40 – +0.99
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Marseille win
73.4%
Draw
15.3%
Angers win
11.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Marseille are finishing sharply below their chances — 8.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWLDLWWWLL last 10
scored 15
from 23.2 xG
conceded 15
from 16.6 xG
Angers are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLDLLDDLWL last 10
scored 9
from 13.0 xG
conceded 16
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.28–0.73 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.58–0.77 | 2-0 12% | 65% | 49% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Marseille 1.60 xGAngers 1.01 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Marseille attacking right
Angers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Angers |
Sidiki Chérif | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jacques Ekomie |
| 11' |
 Marseille |
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
Angers |
Sidiki Chérif | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lilian Raolisoa |
| 14' |
Marseille |
Angel Gomes | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Amir Murillo |
| 22' |
Marseille |
Igor Paixão | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang |
| 22' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
Angers |
Sidiki Chérif | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 28' |
Angers |
Sidiki Chérif | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 36' |
Angers |
Louis Mouton | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sidiki Chérif |
| 38' |
Marseille |
Igor Paixão | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Angel Gomes |
| 45' |
Angers |
Lilian Raolisoa | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Haris Belkebla |
| 51' |
Marseille |
Robinio Vaz | 0.63 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang |
| 52' |
Angers |
Louis Mouton | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yassin Belkhdim |
| 54' |
Angers |
Lilian Raolisoa | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Himad Abdelli |
| 61' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 65' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 69' |
Marseille |
Robinio Vaz | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Emerson |
| 71' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang |
| 77' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matt O'Riley |
| 78' |
Angers |
Djibirin Harouna | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Louis Mouton |
| 94' |
Angers |
Jordan Lefort | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Djibirin Harouna |
| 95' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacques Ekomie |
| 95' |
Angers |
Ousmane Camara | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Marseille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.43 | 0.75 | 1.23 |
| Mason Greenwood AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Gerónimo Rulli GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Naif Aguerd DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Emerson DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| CJ Egan-Riley DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Igor Paixão AML | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Angel Gomes AMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Arthur Vermeeren DMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amir Murillo DR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Robinio Vaz Sub | 42 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Matt O'Riley Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 1.02 |
| Benjamin Pavard Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bilal Nadir Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pol Lirola Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Angers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ousmane Camara DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jordan Lefort DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Haris Belkebla DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| Himad Abdelli DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.61 |
| Jacques Ekomie DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| Kouakou Herve Koffi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Louis Mouton AMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.61 |
| Carlens Arcus DR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Yassin Belkhdim AMR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Sidiki Chérif FW | 61 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.03 | 0.70 |
| Lilian Raolisoa AML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.30 | 0.53 |
| Amine Sbaï Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lanroy Machine Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Djibirin Harouna Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Marius Courcoul Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdoulaye Bamba Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |