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Marseille v Le Havre — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 5 January 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

5–1
3.17 – 0.89 xG
Shots
15 – 4
On target
8 – 1
Shots in box
7 – 3
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.22
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+1.83 – +0.11
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.91.82.73.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'Valentin Rongier 24' — goalBilal Nadir 38' — goalNeal Maupay 42' — goalSepe Elye Wahi 65' — goalUlisses García 74' — goalAndré Ayew 84' — goal
Marseille 3.17 xGLe Havre 0.89 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Ilyes Housni 6' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Adrien Rabiot 13' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Adrien Rabiot 15' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Valentin Rongier 17' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Mason Greenwood 22' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Valentin Rongier 24' — Goal (0.02 xG, Open Play)Bilal Nadir 38' — Goal (0.07 xG, Open Play)Neal Maupay 42' — Goal (0.34 xG, Open Play)Neal Maupay 47' — Missed Shot (0.46 xG, Open Play)Neal Maupay 54' — Saved Shot (0.37 xG, Open Play)Ismaël Koné 59' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Amir Murillo 60' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Mason Greenwood 62' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Sepe Elye Wahi 65' — Goal (0.67 xG, Open Play)Yanis Zouaoui 67' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Mason Greenwood 67' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Ulisses García 74' — Goal (0.89 xG, Open Play)André Ayew 84' — Goal (0.50 xG, Open Play)Andy Logbo 94' — Missed Shot (0.33 xG, Open Play)
Marseille attacking right Le Havre attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
6' Le Havre Ilyes Housni 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Arthur Desmas
13' Marseille Adrien Rabiot 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Valentin Rongier
15' Marseille Adrien Rabiot 0.02 From Corner Blocked Shot Luis Henrique
17' Marseille Valentin Rongier 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
22' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Amir Murillo
24' Marseille Valentin Rongier 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Goal
38' Marseille Bilal Nadir 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Goal Quentin Merlin
42' Marseille Neal Maupay 0.34 Open Play Goal Quentin Merlin
47' Marseille Neal Maupay 0.46 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
54' Marseille Neal Maupay 0.37 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Mason Greenwood
59' Marseille Ismaël Koné 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Luis Henrique
60' Marseille Amir Murillo 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Valentin Rongier
62' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Ismaël Koné
65' Marseille Sepe Elye Wahi 0.67 Open Play Right Foot Goal Mason Greenwood
67' Le Havre Yanis Zouaoui 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Loïc Négo
67' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Amir Murillo
74' Marseille Ulisses García 0.89 Open Play Right Foot Goal Amir Murillo
84' Le Havre André Ayew 0.50 Open Play Goal Antoine Joujou
94' Le Havre Andy Logbo 0.33 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Yanis Zouaoui

Players

Le Havre

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
André Ayew FW 90 1 0 1 0 0.50 0.00 0.50
Yanis Zouaoui DML 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.33 0.84
Abdoulaye Touré MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.83
Étienne Youté DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Arthur Desmas GK 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.54
Timothee Pembele DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.54
Gautier Lloris DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.83
Loïc Négo DMR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.51
Yassine Kechta MC 68 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ilyes Housni FW 57 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Daler Kuzyaev MC 57 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Rassoul Ndiaye Sub 33 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Antoine Joujou Sub 33 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.50 0.83
Andy Logbo Sub 22 0 0 1 0 0.33 0.00 0.33
Alois Confais Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Marseille

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Mason Greenwood AMC 90 0 1 3 2 0.19 1.04 2.19
Adrien Rabiot AMC 90 0 0 2 0 0.03 0.00 0.88
Amir Murillo DC 90 0 1 1 3 0.02 0.99 1.85
Luis Henrique DMR 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.10 1.05
Leonardo Balerdi DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.71
Gerónimo Rulli GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Derek Cornelius DC 83 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.72
Valentin Rongier MC 78 1 0 2 2 0.06 0.03 0.83
Quentin Merlin DML 77 0 2 0 2 0.00 0.41 1.19
Neal Maupay FW 63 1 0 3 0 1.17 0.00 1.17
Bilal Nadir MC 50 1 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.10
Ismaël Koné Sub 40 0 0 1 1 0.08 0.09 1.72
Sepe Elye Wahi Sub 27 1 0 1 0 0.67 0.00 0.76
Ulisses García Sub 13 1 0 1 0 0.89 0.00 0.89
Jonathan Rowe Sub 12 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.89
Darryl Bakola Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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