Marseille v Montpellier — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 19 April 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 7
On target
7 – 1
Shots in box
14 – 4
xG per shot
0.23 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
1.05 – 0.16
Goals − xG
+1.13 – +0.70
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Marseille win
75.8%
Draw
14.7%
Montpellier win
9.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Marseille are finishing sharply below their chances — 8.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLWLDLWWWL last 10
scored 14
from 22.5 xG
conceded 14
from 14.8 xG
Montpellier are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLLLLLDLLL last 10
scored 2
from 6.4 xG
conceded 21
from 19.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.71–0.88 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Marseille 3.87 xGMontpellier 0.30 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Marseille attacking right
Montpellier attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Marseille |
Geoffrey Kondogbia | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Quentin Merlin |
| 5' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
| 5' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.63 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 7' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 9' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 21' |
Marseille |
Ulisses García | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
| 28' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Henrique |
| 32' |
Marseille |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Luis Henrique |
| 41' |
 Montpellier |
Junior Ndiaye | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jordan Ferri |
| 52' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Amine Gouiri |
| 58' |
Marseille |
Quentin Merlin | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mason Greenwood |
| 59' |
Marseille |
Quentin Merlin | 0.55 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Amir Murillo |
| 59' |
Montpellier |
Wilfried Ndollo Bille | 0.00 | Open Play | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 63' |
Marseille |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Quentin Merlin |
| 63' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrien Rabiot |
| 66' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Amir Murillo |
| 68' |
Montpellier |
Rabby Nzingoula | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jordan Ferri |
| 69' |
Montpellier |
Nicolas Pays | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yael Mouanga |
| 69' |
Montpellier |
Rabby Nzingoula | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 73' |
Marseille |
Jonathan Rowe | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ulisses García |
| 77' |
Montpellier |
Joris Chotard | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 82' |
Montpellier |
Lucas Mincarelli Davin | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 83' |
Marseille |
Amine Harit | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mason Greenwood |
| 89' |
Marseille |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ismael Bennacer |
Players
Marseille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Greenwood AMC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 2.03 | 0.12 | 2.03 |
| Adrien Rabiot AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.74 | 0.05 | 1.49 |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 1.23 |
| Ulisses García DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 1.35 |
| Geoffrey Kondogbia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1.11 |
| Amir Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 1.03 | 1.22 |
| Gerónimo Rulli GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luis Henrique DMR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1.41 |
| Quentin Merlin DML | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.60 | 0.12 | 1.39 |
| Amine Gouiri FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| Valentin Rongier MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jonathan Rowe Sub | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Ismael Bennacer Sub | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 1.25 |
| Amine Harit Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Pol Lirola Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Montpellier
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Mincarelli Davin DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Nicolas Pays ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wilfried Ndollo Bille DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tanguy Coulibaly MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yael Mouanga DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Becir Omeragic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jordan Ferri MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| Benjamin Lecomte GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Junior Ndiaye FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Rabby Nzingoula MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Theo Sainte Luce DL | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joris Chotard Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Issiaga Sylla Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Khalil Fayad Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Othmane Maamma Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |