Marseille v Nantes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 4 January 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 15
On target
4 – 9
Shots in box
6 – 12
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.22
Set-piece xG
0.65 – 1.59
Goals − xG
-1.14 – -1.24
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Marseille win
78.1%
Draw
12.8%
Nantes win
9.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Marseille are finishing sharply below their chances — 8.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWLDLWWWLL last 10
scored 15
from 23.2 xG
conceded 15
from 16.6 xG
Nantes are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDDLLWLD last 10
scored 7
from 12.7 xG
conceded 11
from 13.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.71–0.80 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.56–0.76 | 2-0 12% | 65% | 49% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Marseille 1.14 xGNantes 3.24 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Marseille attacking right
Nantes attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Nantes |
Youssef El-Arabi | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matthis Abline |
| 7' |
Nantes |
Kelvin Adou | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Dehmaine Assoumani |
| 13' |
Nantes |
Tylel Tati | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Youssef El-Arabi |
| 15' |
 Marseille |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang |
| 18' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 0.29 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Igor Paixão |
| 21' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
Nantes |
Youssef El-Arabi | 0.66 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 22' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Igor Paixão |
| 24' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
Nantes |
Fabien Centonze | 0.67 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 30' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Junior Mwanga |
| 36' |
Nantes |
Dehmaine Assoumani | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 40' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Emerson |
| 49' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Emerson |
| 51' |
Marseille |
Amir Murillo | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.46 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 56' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
Nantes |
Louis Leroux | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rémy Cabella |
| 74' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matt O'Riley |
| 76' |
Nantes |
Rémy Cabella | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 77' |
Marseille |
Timothy Weah | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Nantes |
Louis Leroux | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Rémy Cabella |
| 78' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Louis Leroux |
| 87' |
Nantes |
Rémy Cabella | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 89' |
Marseille |
Timothy Weah | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Benjamin Pavard |
Players
Marseille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Timothy Weah DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Benjamin Pavard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| Emerson DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.31 |
| Gerónimo Rulli GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mason Greenwood AMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| CJ Egan-Riley DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.04 | 0.29 |
| Facundo Medina DC | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Amir Murillo Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Bilal Nadir Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Igor Paixão AMC | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Arthur Vermeeren MC | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Matt O'Riley Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Amine Gouiri Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Hamed Junior Traore Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
Nantes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthis Abline ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.14 | 0.32 |
| Tylel Tati DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Kelvin Adou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Nicolas Cozza DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Anthony Lopes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Deiver Machado DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Youssef El-Arabi FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.80 | 0.06 | 0.30 |
| Junior Mwanga MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Dehmaine Assoumani MR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Francis Coquelin MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabien Centonze DR | 53 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Sékou Doucouré Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rémy Cabella Sub | 25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.83 | 0.52 | 0.60 |
| Louis Leroux Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.07 | 0.59 |
| Johann Lepenant Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bahereba Guirassy Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |