Marseille v Nice — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 26 April 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
24 – 5
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
18 – 4
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.28
Set-piece xG
1.60 – 0.76
Goals − xG
-1.86 – -0.42
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Marseille win
66.4%
Draw
18.2%
Nice win
15.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Marseille are finishing sharply below their chances — 8.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWLDLWWWLL last 10
scored 15
from 23.2 xG
conceded 15
from 16.6 xG
Nice are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDDDLDDLD last 10
scored 6
from 11.6 xG
conceded 12
from 17.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.48–1.14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.50–1.24 | 2-1 9% | 72% | 65% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Marseille 2.86 xGNice 1.42 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Marseille attacking right
Nice attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Marseille |
Arthur Vermeeren | 0.33 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Timothy Weah |
| 7' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 12' |
Marseille |
Leonardo Balerdi | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang |
| 17' |
Marseille |
Leonardo Balerdi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tochukwu Nnadi |
| 26' |
Marseille |
Leonardo Balerdi | 0.35 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Emerson |
| 27' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arthur Vermeeren |
| 31' |
Marseille |
Timothy Weah | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 32' |
Marseille |
Tochukwu Nnadi | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
| 36' |
Marseille |
Leonardo Balerdi | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Quinten Timber |
| 45' |
 Nice |
Morgan Sanson | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sepe Elye Wahi |
| 47' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 0.33 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Timothy Weah |
| 49' |
Marseille |
Tochukwu Nnadi | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
| 50' |
Marseille |
Leonardo Balerdi | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Emerson |
| 55' |
Nice |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hichem Boudaoui |
| 61' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Emerson |
| 63' |
Marseille |
Tadjidine Mmadi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
| 65' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.24 | Open Play | — | Goal | Tochukwu Nnadi |
| 67' |
Nice |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.23 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Sofiane Diop |
| 69' |
Nice |
Kail Boudache | 0.33 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Melvin Bard |
| 70' |
Marseille |
Timothy Weah | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mason Greenwood |
| 87' |
Nice |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 89' |
Marseille |
Leonardo Balerdi | 0.55 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nouhoum Kamissoko |
| 89' |
Marseille |
Nouhoum Kamissoko | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mason Greenwood |
| 93' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Timothy Weah |
| 94' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Leonardo Balerdi |
| 96' |
Marseille |
Tadjidine Mmadi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Benjamin Pavard |
| 97' |
Marseille |
Gerónimo Rulli | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mason Greenwood |
| 97' |
Marseille |
Leonardo Balerdi | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Gerónimo Rulli |
| 97' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.10 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Benjamin Pavard |
Players
Marseille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonardo Balerdi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 1.24 | 0.02 | 1.03 |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.47 | 0.18 | 1.11 |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.11 | 0.43 |
| Gerónimo Rulli GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.33 |
| Timothy Weah DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.68 | 1.02 |
| Benjamin Pavard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.73 |
| Facundo Medina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.97 |
| Quinten Timber AMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.42 |
| Tochukwu Nnadi MC | 82 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| Arthur Vermeeren MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.05 | 0.71 |
| Emerson DML | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.47 |
| Tadjidine Mmadi Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Mason Greenwood Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.16 | 0.34 |
| Nouhoum Kamissoko Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.55 | 0.09 |
| Himad Abdelli Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
Nice
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sepe Elye Wahi FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.04 | 0.32 |
| Kojo Peprah Oppong DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Juma Bah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jonathan Clauss DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hichem Boudaoui MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Yehvann Diouf GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Antoine Mendy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Salis Abdul Samed MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Melvin Bard DL | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Mohamed Ali-Cho MR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Morgan Sanson ML | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Sofiane Diop Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| Kail Boudache Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Kevin Omoruyi Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ali Abdi Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Charles Vanhoutte Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |