Marseille v Paris Saint Germain — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 September 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Marseille

1–2

1.87 – 4.67 xG

Paris Saint Germain

Shots

12 – 31

On target

4 – 10

Shots in box

7 – 22

xG per shot

0.16 – 0.15

Set-piece xG

0.19 – 0.40

Goals − xG

-0.87 – -2.75

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 20 Sep, 11:12 · 8h before kick-off

Marseille win

23.2%

model 24.4%

Draw

23.2%

model 21.2%

Paris Saint Germain win

53.6%

model 54.4%

232354

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-2 9.5%
1-1 9.2%
0-2 7.2%
0-1 7.0%
1-3 6.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	65.8%	Under 2.5	34.2%
BTTS yes	64.2%	BTTS no	35.8%
Marseille 1+	73.5%	Marseille 2+	38.3%
Paris Saint Germain 1+	87.3%	Paris Saint Germain 2+	61.1%

Expected goals 1.33 – 2.06. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

98/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Paris Saint Germain to score 2+ in a row

Consecutive goals · usually 28%

52.8% fair odds 1.90

strong signal · 783 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 12.5 corners

Corners O/U

83.1% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 4314 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger rating, 1826 Elo against 1576.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Paris Saint Germain have an estimated 53.6% win probability, against 23.2% for Marseille and 23.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.33 for Marseille and 2.06 for Paris Saint Germain.

Why Marseille

At home Marseille average 2.82 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.2%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Paris Saint Germain can win

Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger rating, 1826 Elo against 1576.

Key players

Marseille's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (0.59), Mason Greenwood (0.55), Amine Gouiri (0.53). Paris Saint Germain's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Bradley Barcola (0.47), Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (0.45), Ousmane Dembélé (0.45).

Availability

2 of Marseille's top three contributors did not start their last match. 1 of Paris Saint Germain's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Marseille: 59% possession, 16.2 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.09 xG a match from set pieces. Paris Saint Germain: 70% possession, 20.8 shots a match, 9.0 faced, 0.45 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-20 15:09 · team_stats 2026-09-20 06:07 · availability 2026-09-20 15:12 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Paris Saint Germain are the model's most likely outcome at 53.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-2 at 9.5%. Confidence 98/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Marseille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWWLLLLWW last 10 scored 18 from 19.4 xG conceded 14 from 21.7 xG

Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWLDDLWWWW last 10 scored 18 from 21.4 xG conceded 11 from 15.9 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	242154	1.33–2.06	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
dc-xg	232156	1.32–2.15	1-2 10%	67%	65%	Away ✓
dc-xg-oos	232057	1.33–2.18	1-2 9%	68%	65%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to win	43.0%	43.0%	31.5%	1.37×	2.33
Marseille to win	34.2%	30.5%	45.5%	0.67×	3.28
Draw	22.7%	24.4%	23.2%	1.05×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain & both teams score	25.7%	25.1%	15.7%	1.60×	3.98
Marseille & both teams score	20.8%	21.8%	21.8%	1.00×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	19.2%	18.0%	16.6%	1.08×	5.57
Paris Saint Germain & not both score	17.3%	18.0%	16.0%	1.12×	5.57
Marseille & not both score	13.4%	13.3%	23.8%	0.56×	7.53
Draw & not both score	3.5%	4.9%	6.8%	0.72×	20.48

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain & over 1.5	36.8%	34.8%	25.2%	1.38×	2.87
Paris Saint Germain & over 2.5	31.2%	30.8%	19.7%	1.56×	3.25
Marseille & over 1.5	28.7%	26.1%	35.5%	0.73×	3.84
Marseille & over 2.5	24.4%	21.6%	28.0%	0.77×	4.63
Paris Saint Germain & under 3.5	23.9%	21.6%	20.6%	1.05×	4.63
Marseille & under 3.5	19.8%	18.0%	29.0%	0.62×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	19.2%	18.0%	16.6%	1.08×	5.56
Paris Saint Germain & over 3.5	19.1%	18.0%	11.1%	1.63×	5.56
Marseille & over 3.5	14.4%	12.9%	16.6%	0.78×	7.77
Draw & under 2.5	13.4%	12.9%	16.7%	0.77×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	13.4%	12.9%	16.7%	0.77×	7.77
Paris Saint Germain & under 2.5	11.9%	12.9%	12.0%	1.07×	7.78
Marseille & under 2.5	9.9%	7.9%	17.7%	0.45×	12.62
Draw & over 2.5	9.4%	7.9%	6.6%	1.20×	12.62
Draw & over 3.5	9.4%	7.9%	6.6%	1.20×	12.62
Paris Saint Germain & under 1.5	6.3%	7.9%	6.5%	1.23×	12.63
Marseille & under 1.5	5.5%	7.9%	10.1%	0.78×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	3.5%	4.8%	6.8%	0.71×	20.84

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (1UP)	61.7%	63.1%	49.0%	1.29×	1.59
Marseille (1UP)	54.4%	52.8%	58.2%	0.91×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (2UP)	43.0%	47.7%	33.8%	1.41×	2.10
Marseille (2UP)	34.2%	30.9%	47.3%	0.65×	3.23

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to win 2nd half	40.7%	40.9%	26.7%	1.53×	2.44
2nd half drawn	29.7%	26.7%	31.5%	0.85×	3.74
Marseille to win 2nd half	29.6%	26.7%	41.9%	0.64×	3.74

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain over 0.5 in 2nd half	68.6%	70.5%	49.6%	1.42×	1.42
Paris Saint Germain under 1.5 in 2nd half	67.8%	70.5%	83.3%	0.85×	1.42
Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 in 2nd half	32.2%	29.5%	16.7%	1.76×	3.39
Paris Saint Germain under 0.5 in 2nd half	31.4%	29.5%	50.4%	0.58×	3.39

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille under 1.5 in 2nd half	75.7%	76.2%	75.7%	1.01×	1.31
Marseille over 0.5 in 2nd half	61.0%	62.8%	61.6%	1.02×	1.59
Marseille under 0.5 in 2nd half	39.0%	37.2%	38.4%	0.97×	2.69
Marseille over 1.5 in 2nd half	24.3%	23.8%	24.3%	0.98×	4.20

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (+2.5)	93.6%	92.1%	90.2%	1.02×	1.09
Paris Saint Germain (+1.5)	83.5%	82.5%	75.3%	1.10×	1.21
Paris Saint Germain (+0.5)	65.8%	68.7%	54.5%	1.26×	1.46
Marseille (+0.5)	57.0%	57.0%	68.5%	0.83×	1.76
Paris Saint Germain (-0.5)	43.0%	43.0%	31.5%	1.37×	2.33
Marseille (-0.5)	34.2%	31.3%	45.5%	0.69×	3.19
Marseille (-1.5)	16.5%	17.5%	24.7%	0.71×	5.71
Marseille (-2.5)	6.4%	7.9%	9.8%	0.80×	12.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to concede	79.1%	78.8%	77.4%	1.02×	1.27
Paris Saint Germain clean sheet	20.9%	21.2%	22.6%	0.94×	4.72

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain clean sheet in 1st half	53.5%	50.6%	52.4%	0.97×	1.98
Paris Saint Germain to concede in 1st half	46.5%	49.4%	47.6%	1.04×	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to concede in 2nd half	61.0%	60.8%	61.6%	0.99×	1.65
Paris Saint Germain clean sheet in 2nd half	39.0%	39.2%	38.4%	1.02×	2.55

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain under 6.5 corners	82.6%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Paris Saint Germain under 5.5 corners	73.2%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Paris Saint Germain over 2.5 corners	70.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Paris Saint Germain under 4.5 corners	60.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Paris Saint Germain over 3.5 corners	54.5%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Paris Saint Germain under 3.5 corners	45.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Paris Saint Germain over 4.5 corners	39.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Paris Saint Germain under 2.5 corners	29.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Paris Saint Germain over 5.5 corners	26.8%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Paris Saint Germain over 6.5 corners	17.4%	18.6%	—	—	5.37

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain under 3.5 goals	89.5%	87.9%	93.5%	0.94×	1.14
Paris Saint Germain over 0.5 goals	83.1%	81.4%	69.6%	1.17×	1.23
Paris Saint Germain under 2.5 goals	73.7%	71.9%	84.8%	0.85×	1.39
Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 goals	53.0%	53.5%	36.6%	1.46×	1.87
Paris Saint Germain under 1.5 goals	47.0%	46.5%	63.4%	0.73×	2.15
Paris Saint Germain over 2.5 goals	26.3%	28.1%	15.2%	1.85×	3.56
Paris Saint Germain under 0.5 goals	16.9%	18.6%	30.4%	0.61×	5.37
Paris Saint Germain over 3.5 goals	10.5%	12.1%	6.5%	1.88×	8.24

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain under 1.5 in 1st half	87.2%	88.9%	87.4%	1.02×	1.13
Paris Saint Germain under 0.5 in 1st half	53.8%	55.7%	57.8%	0.96×	1.80
Paris Saint Germain over 0.5 in 1st half	46.2%	44.3%	42.2%	1.05×	2.26
Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 in 1st half	12.8%	11.1%	12.6%	0.88×	8.99

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain scores more in 2nd half	48.8%	48.4%	33.2%	1.46×	2.07
Paris Saint Germain scores equally in both	31.4%	33.8%	42.1%	0.80×	2.96
Paris Saint Germain scores more in 1st half	19.8%	18.2%	24.9%	0.73×	5.49

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (away no bet)	60.1%	61.9%	66.2%	0.93×	1.62
Draw (away no bet)	39.9%	38.1%	33.8%	1.13×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain even goals	51.4%	52.6%	56.5%	0.93×	1.90
Paris Saint Germain odd goals	48.6%	47.4%	43.5%	1.09×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	78.1%	81.8%	82.9%	0.99×	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	21.9%	18.2%	17.1%	1.07×	5.49

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	75.4%	72.5%	65.1%	1.11×	1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals	24.6%	27.5%	34.9%	0.79×	3.64

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	66.0%	62.0%	59.8%	1.04×	1.61
Paris Saint Germain to score 2+ in a row	41.9%	38.2%	28.0%	1.37×	2.62
Marseille to score 2+ in a row	34.8%	29.1%	37.9%	0.77×	3.44
Either team to score 3+ in a row	26.6%	25.3%	22.3%	1.14×	3.95
Paris Saint Germain to score 3+ in a row	15.8%	16.4%	9.1%	1.81×	6.11
Marseille to score 3+ in a row	11.4%	12.2%	13.8%	0.88×	8.23

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain corners (+3.5)	87.5%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Marseille corners (+3.5)	81.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Paris Saint Germain corners (+2.5)	80.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Marseille corners (+2.5)	73.4%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Paris Saint Germain corners (+1.5)	71.6%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Marseille corners (+1.5)	63.0%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Paris Saint Germain corners (-1.5)	37.0%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Marseille corners (-1.5)	28.4%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Paris Saint Germain corners (-2.5)	26.6%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Marseille corners (-2.5)	19.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Paris Saint Germain corners (-3.5)	18.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Marseille corners (-3.5)	12.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.44

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	60.6%	48.2%	—	—	2.07
9-11 corners	24.0%	25.6%	—	—	3.91
12+ corners	15.4%	22.5%	—	—	4.44

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	89.4%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	84.6%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	78.3%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 9.5 corners	70.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 8.5 corners	60.6%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	50.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 7.5 corners	49.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 8.5 corners	39.4%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 9.5 corners	29.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 10.5 corners	21.7%	23.4%	—	—	4.28
Over 11.5 corners	15.4%	19.2%	—	—	5.20
Over 12.5 corners	10.6%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.8%	7.4%	10.1%	0.73×	13.50
1-2	8.7%	7.4%	6.5%	1.15×	13.50
2-1	7.7%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.50
2-2	6.8%	7.4%	5.1%	1.46×	13.50
0-1	6.3%	7.4%	6.5%	1.15×	13.50
0-2	5.6%	7.4%	5.7%	1.30×	13.50
1-0	5.5%	7.4%	10.1%	0.73×	13.50
1-3	5.2%	7.4%	3.4%	2.19×	13.50
Any other score	5.6%	7.4%	5.1%	1.46×	13.50
0-0	3.5%	1.7%	6.8%	0.25×	58.33
0-3	3.3%	1.7%	2.5%	0.70×	58.33
0-4	1.5%	1.7%	1.5%	1.12×	58.34
1-4	2.3%	1.7%	1.5%	1.12×	58.34
2-0	4.3%	1.7%	7.7%	0.22×	58.33
2-3	4.1%	1.7%	1.8%	0.93×	58.33
2-4	1.8%	1.7%	0.8%	2.23×	58.34
3-0	2.3%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.34
3-1	4.0%	1.7%	6.1%	0.28×	58.33
3-2	3.6%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.33
3-3	2.1%	1.7%	1.5%	1.12×	58.34
3-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.8%	2.23×	58.35
4-0	0.9%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.35
4-1	1.6%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.34
4-2	1.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.12×	58.35
4-3	0.8%	1.7%	0.3%	5.58×	58.35
4-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	5.58×	58.35

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (2nd half DNB)	57.9%	59.7%	38.9%	1.53×	1.68
Marseille (2nd half DNB)	42.1%	40.3%	61.1%	0.66×	2.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille leading at HT (DNB)	50.3%	54.3%	53.5%	1.02×	1.84
Paris Saint Germain leading at HT (DNB)	49.7%	45.7%	46.5%	0.98×	2.19

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille or Paris Saint Germain (12)	77.3%	75.6%	76.8%	0.98×	1.32
Paris Saint Germain or draw (X2)	65.8%	69.5%	54.5%	1.27×	1.44
Marseille or draw (1X)	57.0%	57.0%	68.5%	0.83×	1.76

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille or draw at HT	70.7%	74.7%	71.4%	1.05×	1.34
Paris Saint Germain or draw at HT	70.4%	74.7%	67.1%	1.11×	1.34
Marseille or Paris Saint Germain at HT	58.9%	56.8%	61.3%	0.93×	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain or draw (1UP)	65.8%	75.8%	62.2%	1.22×	1.32
Marseille or draw (1UP)	57.0%	62.4%	72.8%	0.86×	1.60

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain or draw in 2nd half	70.4%	73.3%	58.1%	1.26×	1.37
Marseille or Paris Saint Germain in 2nd half	70.3%	73.3%	68.5%	1.07×	1.37
Marseille or draw in 2nd half	59.4%	59.1%	73.3%	0.81×	1.69

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.6%	58.2%	57.0%	1.02×	1.72
Neither half drawn	41.4%	41.8%	43.0%	0.97×	2.39

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (DNB)	55.7%	58.0%	40.9%	1.42×	1.72
Marseille (DNB)	44.3%	42.0%	59.1%	0.71×	2.38

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to score first	51.3%	53.7%	43.8%	1.23×	1.86
Marseille to score first	45.2%	45.5%	49.6%	0.92×	2.20
No goal scored	3.5%	4.3%	6.8%	0.64×	22.99

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	65.7%	58.4%	53.8%	1.09×	1.71
Not both teams to score	34.3%	41.6%	46.2%	0.90×	2.40

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	55.9%	47.3%	43.8%	1.08×	2.11
Not both score & under 2.5	25.3%	33.4%	36.1%	0.92×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	9.8%	8.3%	10.1%	0.82×	12.02
Not both score & over 2.5	9.0%	8.3%	10.3%	0.81×	12.02

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	75.4%	79.6%	84.6%	0.94×	1.26
Both teams to score 2+	24.6%	20.4%	15.4%	1.33×	4.89

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	58.2%	65.8%	70.0%	0.94×	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	41.8%	34.2%	30.0%	1.14×	2.92

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	45.7%	53.5%	57.8%	0.93×	1.87
Both score 2nd half only	32.8%	27.0%	23.7%	1.14×	3.71
Both score 1st half only	12.5%	10.7%	12.4%	0.86×	9.38
Both score in both halves	9.0%	7.0%	6.5%	1.08×	14.34

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	78.5%	81.0%	81.3%	1.00×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	21.5%	19.0%	18.7%	1.01×	5.27

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	62.5%	59.1%	59.1%	1.00×	1.69
A half without a goal	37.5%	40.9%	40.9%	1.00×	2.44

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	41.7%	42.0%	43.2%	0.97×	2.38
4-6 goals	37.5%	35.2%	30.6%	1.15×	2.84
0-1 goals	15.3%	20.2%	23.0%	0.88×	4.94
7+ goals	5.4%	7.6%	3.5%	2.15×	13.14

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to score exactly 1	30.1%	33.8%	33.2%	1.02×	2.96
Paris Saint Germain to score exactly 2	26.7%	27.4%	21.5%	1.27×	3.65
Paris Saint Germain to score 3+	26.3%	27.4%	15.2%	1.80×	3.65
Paris Saint Germain to score exactly 0	16.9%	19.6%	30.4%	0.64×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to score exactly 1	32.7%	32.6%	31.8%	1.02×	3.07
Marseille to score exactly 2	25.6%	26.5%	23.3%	1.14×	3.77
Marseille to score exactly 0	20.9%	23.3%	22.6%	1.03×	4.29
Marseille to score 3+	20.8%	23.3%	22.6%	1.03×	4.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.1%	43.2%	38.7%	1.12×	2.31
Marseille leading at HT	29.6%	25.3%	32.9%	0.77×	3.96
Paris Saint Germain leading at HT	29.3%	25.3%	28.6%	0.88×	3.96

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain -1: 1	57.0%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Paris Saint Germain -1: 2	22.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Paris Saint Germain -1: X	20.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (0:1)	65.8%	65.1%	54.5%	1.19×	1.54
Draw (0:1)	17.8%	17.8%	20.9%	0.85×	5.61
Marseille (0:1)	16.5%	17.8%	24.7%	0.72×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (0:2)	83.5%	82.9%	75.3%	1.10×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	10.0%	11.0%	15.1%	0.73×	9.13
Marseille (0:2)	6.4%	7.7%	9.8%	0.78×	13.02

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (0:3)	93.6%	92.7%	90.2%	1.03×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.4%	2.4%	6.0%	0.40×	42.16
Marseille (0:3)	2.1%	2.4%	4.0%	0.59×	42.26

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (0:4)	97.9%	98.1%	96.0%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.5%	1.2%	2.6%	0.46×	82.75
Marseille (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	1.5%	0.79×	82.86

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (1:0)	57.0%	58.2%	68.5%	0.85×	1.72
Paris Saint Germain (1:0)	22.9%	21.8%	16.6%	1.31×	4.59
Draw (1:0)	20.2%	21.7%	15.1%	1.44×	4.60

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (2:0)	77.1%	80.3%	83.4%	0.96×	1.25
Draw (2:0)	12.9%	10.3%	9.7%	1.07×	9.67
Paris Saint Germain (2:0)	10.0%	6.4%	7.1%	0.91×	15.59

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	57.0%	57.3%	47.2%	1.22×	1.75
1st half highest scoring	22.2%	24.3%	26.6%	0.91×	4.12
Halves equal	20.9%	24.3%	26.4%	0.92×	4.12

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to concede	83.1%	80.7%	69.6%	1.16×	1.24
Marseille clean sheet	16.9%	19.3%	30.4%	0.63×	5.19

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille clean sheet in 1st half	53.8%	55.7%	57.8%	0.96×	1.80
Marseille to concede in 1st half	46.2%	44.3%	42.2%	1.05×	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to concede in 2nd half	68.6%	68.0%	49.6%	1.37×	1.47
Marseille clean sheet in 2nd half	31.4%	32.0%	50.4%	0.64×	3.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille under 6.5 corners	87.1%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Marseille under 5.5 corners	79.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Marseille under 4.5 corners	67.4%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Marseille over 2.5 corners	65.3%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Marseille under 3.5 corners	52.2%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Marseille over 3.5 corners	47.8%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Marseille under 2.5 corners	34.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Marseille over 4.5 corners	32.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Marseille over 5.5 corners	21.0%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Marseille over 6.5 corners	12.9%	13.7%	—	—	7.30

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille under 3.5 goals	92.6%	92.2%	91.9%	1.00×	1.08
Marseille under 2.5 goals	79.2%	77.7%	77.4%	1.00×	1.29
Marseille over 0.5 goals	79.1%	77.7%	77.4%	1.00×	1.29
Marseille under 1.5 goals	53.6%	53.2%	54.2%	0.98×	1.88
Marseille over 1.5 goals	46.4%	46.8%	45.8%	1.02×	2.14
Marseille under 0.5 goals	20.9%	22.3%	22.6%	0.99×	4.49
Marseille over 2.5 goals	20.8%	22.3%	22.6%	0.99×	4.49
Marseille over 3.5 goals	7.4%	7.8%	8.1%	0.96×	12.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille under 1.5 in 1st half	87.0%	89.9%	87.3%	1.03×	1.11
Marseille under 0.5 in 1st half	53.5%	50.4%	52.4%	0.96×	1.98
Marseille over 0.5 in 1st half	46.5%	49.6%	47.6%	1.04×	2.02
Marseille over 1.5 in 1st half	13.0%	10.1%	12.8%	0.79×	9.90

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille scores more in 2nd half	41.5%	42.3%	40.7%	1.04×	2.36
Marseille scores equally in both	35.1%	37.5%	36.9%	1.02×	2.67
Marseille scores more in 1st half	23.4%	21.4%	22.6%	0.95×	4.68

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (home no bet)	65.4%	63.9%	57.6%	1.11×	1.57
Draw (home no bet)	34.6%	36.1%	42.4%	0.85×	2.77

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille even goals	52.2%	50.6%	51.6%	0.98×	1.97
Marseille odd goals	47.8%	49.4%	48.4%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	28.8%	28.9%	28.9%	1.00×	3.46
HT 1-0	18.0%	18.7%	21.0%	0.89×	5.34
HT 0-1	17.9%	18.7%	16.7%	1.12×	5.34
HT 1-1	11.2%	10.8%	9.4%	1.15×	9.28
HT 2-0	5.6%	7.1%	6.8%	1.05×	14.13
HT 0-2	5.5%	7.1%	5.4%	1.32×	14.13
Any other HT score	5.0%	7.1%	4.6%	1.54×	14.13
HT 1-2	3.5%	2.3%	4.5%	0.53×	42.75
HT 2-1	3.5%	2.3%	3.2%	0.73×	42.75
HT 2-2	1.1%	2.3%	0.8%	3.03×	42.92

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain at HT / Paris Saint Germain at FT	22.2%	21.5%	19.2%	1.12×	4.65
Marseille at HT / Marseille at FT	19.6%	16.8%	27.3%	0.61×	5.96
Draw at HT / Paris Saint Germain at FT	16.7%	16.7%	10.9%	1.54×	5.97
Draw at HT / Marseille at FT	12.2%	12.7%	14.9%	0.85×	7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.2%	12.7%	13.2%	0.96×	7.89
Marseille at HT / Draw at FT	5.9%	6.1%	4.1%	1.47×	16.41
Paris Saint Germain at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.4%	6.1%	0.56×	29.07
Marseille at HT / Paris Saint Germain at FT	4.1%	3.4%	1.7%	2.03×	29.09
Paris Saint Germain at HT / Marseille at FT	2.5%	3.4%	3.5%	0.97×	29.15

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to score last	51.3%	51.9%	40.4%	1.28×	1.93
Marseille to score last	45.2%	46.4%	53.0%	0.88×	2.16
No goal scored	3.5%	4.3%	6.8%	0.64×	22.99

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.5%	95.6%	93.2%	1.03×	1.05
Paris Saint Germain to lead by 1 at any time	61.7%	61.3%	49.0%	1.25×	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	54.9%	50.7%	51.0%	0.99×	1.97
Marseille to lead by 1 at any time	54.4%	50.7%	58.2%	0.87×	1.97
Paris Saint Germain to lead by 2 at any time	31.2%	29.6%	21.7%	1.37×	3.38
Marseille to lead by 2 at any time	24.2%	19.7%	29.5%	0.67×	5.07
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	21.9%	19.7%	19.8%	0.99×	5.08
Paris Saint Germain to lead by 3 at any time	13.0%	10.5%	8.3%	1.27×	9.50
Marseille to lead by 3 at any time	8.9%	6.8%	11.7%	0.58×	14.80

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain most corners	48.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Marseille most corners	39.3%	39.4%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	12.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.3%	83.4%	84.9%	0.98×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.3%	78.6%	73.6%	1.07×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.4%	72.4%	68.7%	1.05×	1.38
1-4 goals	72.0%	72.4%	76.5%	0.95×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.1%	63.4%	60.2%	1.05×	1.58
3-6 goals	59.6%	59.1%	50.5%	1.17×	1.69
1-3 goals	53.6%	53.1%	59.4%	0.89×	1.88
3-5 goals	52.7%	53.1%	45.6%	1.16×	1.88
2-3 goals	41.7%	43.5%	43.2%	1.01×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.4%	43.5%	37.2%	1.17×	2.30
4-6 goals	37.5%	39.2%	30.6%	1.28×	2.55
1-2 goals	31.6%	35.2%	39.5%	0.89×	2.84
4-5 goals	30.7%	35.2%	25.7%	1.37×	2.84
5-6 goals	19.2%	18.8%	13.5%	1.39×	5.32
7+ goals	5.4%	8.9%	3.5%	2.51×	11.26

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain never behind	42.1%	48.6%	41.8%	1.16×	2.06
Marseille never behind	34.7%	36.1%	51.0%	0.71×	2.77

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	47.2%	1.08×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	52.8%	0.93×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.1%	51.9%	51.9%	1.00×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.9%	48.1%	48.1%	1.00×	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.8%	52.0%	49.8%	1.05×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.2%	48.0%	50.2%	0.96×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.5%	95.4%	93.2%	1.02×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	87.8%	87.6%	91.6%	0.96×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	84.7%	82.3%	77.0%	1.07×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	75.5%	77.3%	83.1%	0.93×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	64.9%	61.7%	53.9%	1.14×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	57.1%	58.6%	66.1%	0.89×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	42.9%	41.4%	33.9%	1.22×	2.42
Under 2.5 goals	35.1%	38.3%	46.1%	0.83×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	24.5%	22.7%	16.9%	1.34×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	15.3%	17.7%	23.0%	0.77×	5.66
Over 5.5 goals	12.2%	12.4%	8.4%	1.47×	8.08
Under 0.5 goals	3.5%	4.6%	6.8%	0.68×	21.87

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.2%	92.4%	96.3%	0.96×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	86.1%	86.7%	90.8%	0.96×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	80.9%	81.1%	70.1%	1.16×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	70.0%	67.5%	79.6%	0.85×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	55.0%	55.8%	42.4%	1.32×	1.79
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.0%	44.2%	57.6%	0.77×	2.26
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	30.0%	32.5%	20.4%	1.60×	3.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	19.1%	18.9%	29.9%	0.63×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	13.9%	13.3%	9.2%	1.44×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.8%	7.6%	3.7%	2.05×	13.16

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.0%	88.9%	87.4%	1.02×	1.13
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.2%	71.2%	71.1%	1.00×	1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half	64.7%	63.8%	66.4%	0.96×	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	35.4%	36.2%	33.6%	1.08×	2.76
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.8%	28.8%	28.9%	1.00×	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.0%	11.1%	12.6%	0.88×	8.99

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	87.7%	85.4%	81.3%	1.05×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	65.0%	67.6%	75.7%	0.89×	1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	62.0%	62.1%	48.5%	1.28×	1.61
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	38.0%	37.9%	51.5%	0.74×	2.64
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	35.0%	32.5%	24.3%	1.34×	3.08
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	12.3%	14.6%	18.7%	0.78×	6.84

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille not to score in both halves	71.7%	74.1%	68.2%	1.09×	1.35
Paris Saint Germain not to score in both halves	68.3%	70.1%	77.7%	0.90×	1.43
Paris Saint Germain to score in both halves	31.7%	29.9%	22.3%	1.34×	3.35
Marseille to score in both halves	28.3%	25.9%	31.8%	0.81×	3.87

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	65.7%	59.8%	53.8%	1.11×	1.67
Only Paris Saint Germain scores	17.3%	16.0%	16.0%	1.00×	6.24
Only Marseille scores	13.4%	11.0%	23.8%	0.46×	9.07
Neither team scores	3.5%	4.6%	6.8%	0.69×	21.56

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	22.6%	20.1%	1.12×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	19.7%	17.5%	23.2%	0.75×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	18.4%	17.4%	17.2%	1.01×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	12.3%	12.1%	8.6%	1.41×	8.25
6 or more goals	12.2%	12.1%	8.4%	1.43×	8.25
Exactly 1 goals	11.8%	12.1%	16.4%	0.74×	8.26
Exactly 0 goals	3.5%	4.5%	6.8%	0.66×	22.36

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.9%	36.8%	37.6%	0.98×	2.71
No goals in 1st half	28.8%	28.7%	28.9%	0.99×	3.48
2 goals in 1st half	22.3%	21.6%	21.2%	1.02×	4.64
3+ goals in 1st half	13.0%	11.0%	12.6%	0.88×	9.06

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	62.0%	59.1%	48.5%	1.22×	1.69
1 goal in 2nd half	25.7%	29.7%	32.9%	0.90×	3.37
No goals in 2nd half	12.3%	14.5%	18.7%	0.77×	6.89

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille not to win both halves	91.2%	94.0%	83.4%	1.13×	1.06
Paris Saint Germain not to win both halves	88.1%	88.1%	90.8%	0.97×	1.14
Paris Saint Germain to win both halves	11.9%	11.9%	9.2%	1.30×	8.37
Marseille to win both halves	8.8%	6.0%	16.6%	0.36×	16.61

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to win either half	58.0%	59.5%	46.1%	1.29×	1.68
Marseille to win either half	50.5%	54.4%	58.2%	0.93×	1.84
Marseille to win neither half	49.5%	45.6%	41.8%	1.09×	2.19
Paris Saint Germain to win neither half	42.0%	40.5%	53.9%	0.75×	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille not to win to nil	86.6%	88.1%	76.2%	1.16×	1.14
Paris Saint Germain not to win to nil	82.7%	83.1%	84.0%	0.99×	1.20
Paris Saint Germain to win to nil	17.3%	16.9%	16.0%	1.06×	5.92
Marseille to win to nil	13.4%	11.9%	23.8%	0.50×	8.42

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	22.7%	24.1%	23.2%	1.04×	4.15
Paris Saint Germain by 1	20.2%	24.1%	15.1%	1.60×	4.15
Marseille by 1	17.8%	17.0%	20.9%	0.81×	5.89
Paris Saint Germain by 2	12.9%	11.8%	9.7%	1.22×	8.49
Marseille by 2	10.0%	11.8%	15.1%	0.78×	8.50
Paris Saint Germain by 3+	10.0%	7.2%	7.1%	1.02×	13.86
Marseille by 3+	6.4%	7.2%	9.8%	0.73×	13.88

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Marseille 1.87 xGParis Saint Germain 4.75 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Marseille attacking right Paris Saint Germain attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
7'	Paris Saint Germain	Désiré Doué	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Ousmane Dembélé
9'	Paris Saint Germain	Nuno Mendes	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
11'	Paris Saint Germain	Désiré Doué	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
11'	Paris Saint Germain	Fabián	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
11'	Paris Saint Germain	Ousmane Dembélé	0.33	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Fabián
23'	Marseille	Pierre-Emile Højbjerg	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Neal Maupay
34'	Paris Saint Germain	Vitinha	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
37'	Marseille	Neal Maupay	0.13	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Amine Gouiri
39'	Marseille	Angel Gomes	0.03	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
41'	Paris Saint Germain	Ousmane Dembélé	0.36	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Warren Zaïre-Emery
41'	Paris Saint Germain	Warren Zaïre-Emery	0.08	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Désiré Doué
42'	Paris Saint Germain	Fabián	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Ousmane Dembélé
42'	Paris Saint Germain	Ousmane Dembélé	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Vitinha
46'	Paris Saint Germain	Désiré Doué	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Vitinha
47'	Paris Saint Germain	João Neves	0.09	Open Play	—	Saved Shot	Désiré Doué
47'	Paris Saint Germain	Vitinha	0.11	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Ousmane Dembélé
48'	Paris Saint Germain	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Désiré Doué
48'	Paris Saint Germain	Ousmane Dembélé	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Marquinhos
49'	Marseille	Timothy Weah	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Amine Harit
51'	Paris Saint Germain	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia	0.15	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Ousmane Dembélé
52'	Paris Saint Germain	Ousmane Dembélé	0.27	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Nuno Mendes
54'	Paris Saint Germain	Vitinha	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Ousmane Dembélé
55'	Paris Saint Germain	João Neves	0.54	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Nuno Mendes
60'	Paris Saint Germain	Désiré Doué	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Nuno Mendes
60'	Paris Saint Germain	Ousmane Dembélé	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Ferrán Torres
61'	Marseille	Neal Maupay	0.49	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Amine Gouiri
65'	Paris Saint Germain	Ferrán Torres	0.40	Open Play	—	Goal	Désiré Doué
66'	Marseille	Keyliane Abdallah	0.03	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Neal Maupay
67'	Marseille	Pierre-Emile Højbjerg	0.03	From Corner	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Himad Abdelli
69'	Paris Saint Germain	Ferrán Torres	0.11	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Désiré Doué
71'	Marseille	Angel Gomes	0.46	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Amine Gouiri
73'	Paris Saint Germain	Marquinhos	0.41	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Nuno Mendes
73'	Paris Saint Germain	Marquinhos	0.18	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	—
75'	Marseille	Pierre-Emile Højbjerg	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Amine Gouiri
77'	Paris Saint Germain	Ousmane Dembélé	0.32	Set Piece	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Nuno Mendes
81'	Paris Saint Germain	Nuno Mendes	0.03	From Corner	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Vitinha
82'	Paris Saint Germain	Ferrán Torres	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
85'	Paris Saint Germain	Maghnes Akliouche	0.16	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Nuno Mendes
89'	Paris Saint Germain	Maghnes Akliouche	0.43	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Nuno Mendes
90'	Paris Saint Germain	João Neves	0.06	Direct Freekick	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
92'	Marseille	Naif Aguerd	0.02	From Corner	—	Blocked Shot	Angel Gomes
92'	Marseille	Ulisses García	0.14	Set Piece	—	Blocked Shot	—
95'	Marseille	Naif Aguerd	0.50	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Faris Moumbagna

Players

Paris Saint Germain

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
João Neves MC	90	0	0	3	0	0.69	0.00	1.31
Marquinhos DC	90	1	0	2	1	0.59	0.04	1.65
Vitinha MC	90	0	0	3	3	0.20	0.08	1.93
Nuno Mendes DL	90	0	0	2	7	0.12	2.17	3.20
Warren Zaïre-Emery DR	90	0	0	1	1	0.08	0.36	2.09
William Pacho DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1.59
Matvey Safonov GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.30
Ousmane Dembélé FW	83	0	0	7	5	1.38	0.43	2.48
Désiré Doué FWR	83	0	1	4	5	0.21	0.77	1.67
Fabián MC	69	0	0	2	1	0.06	0.33	0.50
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia FWL	63	0	0	2	3	0.23	0.14	0.51
Ferrán Torres Sub	27	1	0	3	1	0.60	0.04	0.64
Maghnes Akliouche Sub	21	0	0	2	0	0.59	0.00	0.70
Mika Godts Sub	7	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.16
Beraldo Sub	7	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.24

Marseille

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Naif Aguerd DC	90	0	0	2	0	0.52	0.00	0.51
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg MC	90	0	0	3	0	0.06	0.00	0.52
Amine Gouiri FW	90	0	1	0	4	0.00	1.10	0.63
CJ Egan-Riley DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.04
Jeffrey de Lange GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.03
Neal Maupay FW	88	0	0	2	2	0.62	0.04	0.68
Emerson DL	88	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.04
Himad Abdelli MC	88	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.03	0.05
Timothy Weah DR	81	0	0	1	0	0.01	0.00	0.03
Amine Harit MR	67	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.01	0.01
Angel Gomes Sub	61	1	0	2	1	0.49	0.02	0.50
Igor Paixão ML	29	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.02
Keyliane Abdallah Sub	23	0	0	1	0	0.03	0.00	0.03
Ulisses García Sub	2	0	0	1	0	0.14	0.00	0.50
Kelyann Bezahaf Sub	2	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Faris Moumbagna Sub	2	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.50	0.50

Marseille v Paris Saint Germain — Prediction, Odds & Stats

AI prediction

Top 5 scorelines

Goals

Footing

Positive factors

Risk factors

The price

Why Marseille

Why the draw is live

Why Paris Saint Germain can win

Key players

Availability

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

What the chances say

What the model said

All markets

Expected goals by minute

Shot map

Every shot

Players

Paris Saint Germain

Marseille

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