Marseille v Rennes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 May 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 9
On target
10 – 3
Shots in box
14 – 7
xG per shot
0.24 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
1.68 – 0.02
Goals − xG
-0.07 – +0.60
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Marseille win
46.6%
Draw
24.9%
Rennes win
28.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Marseille are finishing sharply below their chances — 8.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWLDLWWWLL last 10
scored 15
from 23.2 xG
conceded 15
from 16.6 xG
Rennes are conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWLWLDWW last 10
scored 21
from 20.4 xG
conceded 16
from 19.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.62–1.22 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.85–1.37 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 63% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Marseille 4.07 xGRennes 1.40 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Marseille attacking right
Rennes attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Rowe |
| 5' |
 Rennes |
Anthony Rouault | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 10' |
Marseille |
Jonathan Rowe | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
| 13' |
Rennes |
Ismaël Koné | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lilian Brassier |
| 16' |
Rennes |
Lorenz Assignon | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ismaël Koné |
| 20' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 23' |
Marseille |
Leonardo Balerdi | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ismael Bennacer |
| 26' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 30' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 32' |
Marseille |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jonathan Rowe |
| 35' |
Rennes |
Azor Matusiwa | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lorenz Assignon |
| 37' |
Marseille |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mason Greenwood |
| 45' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jonathan Rowe |
| 47' |
Marseille |
Jonathan Rowe | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mason Greenwood |
| 47' |
Marseille |
Pol Lirola | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Rennes |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Azor Matusiwa |
| 58' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.45 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jonathan Rowe |
| 61' |
Rennes |
Ludovic Blas | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Anthony Rouault |
| 75' |
Marseille |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Mason Greenwood |
| 75' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bilal Nadir |
| 76' |
Rennes |
Andrés Gómez | 0.88 | Open Play | — | Goal | Kazeem Olaigbe |
| 79' |
Rennes |
Andrés Gómez | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Seko Fofana |
| 83' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Amine Harit |
| 84' |
Rennes |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lorenz Assignon |
| 86' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Amine Harit |
| 91' |
Marseille |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.70 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Amine Harit |
Players
Marseille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Greenwood FWR | 90 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 1.93 | 0.65 | 0.99 |
| Adrien Rabiot MC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.30 | 0.00 | 1.39 |
| Leonardo Balerdi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1.72 |
| Amir Murillo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| Gerónimo Rulli GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Amine Gouiri FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 1.07 |
| Jonathan Rowe FWL | 73 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.15 | 0.72 | 0.87 |
| Quentin Merlin DL | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Ismael Bennacer MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.60 |
| Luiz Felipe DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pol Lirola Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Bilal Nadir Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Amar Dedic Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Amine Harit Sub | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| Neal Maupay Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
Rennes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Lorenz Assignon MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1.36 |
| Anthony Rouault DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| Lilian Brassier DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1.29 |
| Djaoui Cissé DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.02 |
| Brice Samba GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| Adrien Truffert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1.32 |
| Ludovic Blas ML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Azor Matusiwa MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| Ismaël Koné MC | 63 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| Jérémy Jacquet DR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Andrés Gómez Sub | 27 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.19 | 0.00 | 1.19 |
| Jordan James Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Seko Fofana Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 1.22 |
| Kazeem Olaigbe Sub | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.88 | 1.22 |
| Steve Mandanda Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |