Marseille v Strasbourg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 21 August 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 5
On target
8 – 2
Shots in box
8 – 3
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.80 – 0.04
Goals − xG
+1.65 – -0.19
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Marseille win
54.5%
Draw
22.4%
Strasbourg win
23.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Marseille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWLLLLWW last 10
scored 18
from 19.4 xG
conceded 14
from 21.7 xG
Strasbourg are finishing sharply above their chances — 6.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DWWLWWDLLL last 10
scored 20
from 13.9 xG
conceded 21
from 18.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.99–1.24 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.16–1.42 | 2-1 9% | 69% | 67% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Marseille 2.35 xGStrasbourg 0.19 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Marseille attacking right
Strasbourg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Marseille |
Angel Gomes | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 7' |
Marseille |
Angel Gomes | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 11' |
 Strasbourg |
Guela Doué | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Samir El Mourabet |
| 18' |
Marseille |
Angel Gomes | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 20' |
Strasbourg |
Diogo Sousa | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Høgsberg |
| 23' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Marseille |
Igor Paixão | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Amine Harit |
| 30' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Angel Gomes |
| 31' |
Strasbourg |
Gessime Yassine | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sebastian Nanasi |
| 33' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | CJ Egan-Riley |
| 38' |
Strasbourg |
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Høgsberg |
| 40' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amine Gouiri |
| 42' |
Marseille |
Amine Harit | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg |
| 45' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Angel Gomes |
| 55' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Timothy Weah |
| 67' |
Marseille |
Amine Gouiri | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 81' |
Strasbourg |
Gessime Yassine | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fabio Baldé |
| 88' |
Marseille |
Keyliane Abdallah | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 95' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Marseille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amine Gouiri FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1.45 | 0.02 | 0.71 |
| Angel Gomes AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.70 | 0.58 | 1.36 |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| Igor Paixão AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Timothy Weah DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.58 |
| Jeffrey de Lange GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emerson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Amine Harit AMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Geoffrey Kondogbia DC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Himad Abdelli DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CJ Egan-Riley DC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.66 |
| Naif Aguerd Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Keyliane Abdallah Sub | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Derek Cornelius Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tochukwu Nnadi Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Neal Maupay Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Strasbourg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gessime Yassine AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Guela Doué DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Høgsberg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Filip Jorgensen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Andrew Omobamidele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Genesis Antwi DL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Sebastian Nanasi AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Diogo Sousa DMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Samuel Amo-Ameyaw AMR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Sékou Mara FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samir El Mourabet DMC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Jacobo Ortega Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pape Diop Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giovanni Reyna Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabio Baldé Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Mateo del Blanco Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |