Marseille v Toulouse — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 31 October 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 02:09

Marseille

10:00

Toulouse

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 1,302h before kick-off

Marseille win

57.8%

model 56.4%

Draw

21.1%

model 21.9%

Toulouse win

21.1%

model 21.7%

582121

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (282 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.1%
2-1 9.9%
1-0 9.0%
2-0 8.8%
3-1 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	59.3%	Under 2.5	40.7%
BTTS yes	58.0%	BTTS no	42.0%
Marseille 1+	85.7%	Marseille 2+	57.9%
Toulouse 1+	67.6%	Toulouse 2+	31.1%

Expected goals 1.95 – 1.13. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

91/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Marseille (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 46%

56.8% fair odds 1.76

moderate signal · 920 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Toulouse (0:3)

Handicap 0:3 · usually 90%

83.5% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 235 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Marseille carry the stronger rating, 1584 Elo against 1519.
Marseille have created 2.32 xG a match over their last five while Toulouse have allowed 1.67.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
At home Marseille average 2.82 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Marseille have an estimated 57.8% win probability, against 21.1% for the draw and 21.1% for Toulouse. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.95 for Marseille and 1.13 for Toulouse.

Why Marseille

Marseille carry the stronger rating, 1584 Elo against 1519. Marseille have created 2.32 xG a match over their last five while Toulouse have allowed 1.67. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. At home Marseille average 2.82 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.1%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Toulouse can win

Toulouse have created 1.46 xG a match over their last five while Marseille have allowed 1.66. Away from home Toulouse average 0.80 xG a match.

Key players

Marseille's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (0.59), Mason Greenwood (0.56), Amine Gouiri (0.53). Toulouse's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Thomas Jørgensen (0.33), Aron Dønnum (0.31), Christ Tapé (0.30).

Availability

2 of Marseille's top three contributors did not start their last match. 2 of Toulouse's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Marseille: 60% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.10 xG a match from set pieces. Toulouse: 46% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.55 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Marseille are the model's most likely outcome at 57.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.1%. Confidence 91/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Marseille are finishing sharply below their chances — 8.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LWLDLWWWLL last 10 scored 15 from 23.2 xG conceded 15 from 16.6 xG

Toulouse are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LLLDWWDLDL last 10 scored 11 from 14.6 xG conceded 19 from 16.7 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	562222	1.95–1.13	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	532226	1.95–1.31	1-1 10%	63%	63%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to win	54.0%	51.5%	45.6%	1.13×	1.94
Toulouse to win	24.3%	24.5%	31.8%	0.77×	4.09
Draw	21.8%	24.4%	22.8%	1.07×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille & both teams score	29.7%	25.2%	22.0%	1.15×	3.97
Marseille & not both score	24.2%	21.9%	23.7%	0.92×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	17.9%	17.9%	16.4%	1.09×	5.58
Toulouse & both teams score	14.4%	13.3%	15.9%	0.83×	7.54
Toulouse & not both score	9.9%	8.4%	16.1%	0.52×	11.92
Draw & not both score	3.9%	4.9%	6.6%	0.74×	20.57

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille & over 1.5	46.3%	45.2%	35.7%	1.26×	2.21
Marseille & over 2.5	38.7%	34.9%	28.2%	1.24×	2.87
Marseille & under 3.5	30.0%	26.0%	28.9%	0.90×	3.84
Marseille & over 3.5	24.0%	21.7%	16.8%	1.29×	4.62
Toulouse & over 1.5	19.4%	18.0%	25.6%	0.70×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.9%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.56
Toulouse & over 2.5	16.2%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Toulouse & under 3.5	15.5%	18.0%	20.7%	0.87×	5.56
Marseille & under 2.5	15.3%	18.0%	17.5%	1.03×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	13.6%	12.9%	16.5%	0.78×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	13.6%	12.9%	16.5%	0.78×	7.77
Toulouse & over 3.5	8.7%	7.9%	11.2%	0.70×	12.69
Marseille & under 1.5	7.7%	7.9%	10.0%	0.79×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	8.1%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	8.1%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.70
Toulouse & under 2.5	8.0%	7.9%	12.0%	0.66×	12.70
Toulouse & under 1.5	4.9%	4.8%	6.4%	0.75×	20.93
Draw & under 1.5	3.9%	4.8%	6.6%	0.73×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (1UP)	69.5%	70.1%	58.0%	1.21×	1.43
Toulouse (1UP)	44.5%	39.6%	49.6%	0.80×	2.53

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (2UP)	54.0%	55.7%	47.1%	1.18×	1.79
Toulouse (2UP)	24.3%	23.8%	34.2%	0.70×	4.20

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to win 2nd half	48.6%	45.6%	42.1%	1.08×	2.19
2nd half drawn	28.8%	26.3%	31.2%	0.84×	3.80
Toulouse to win 2nd half	22.6%	23.1%	26.8%	0.86×	4.33

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse (+2.5)	84.8%	82.4%	90.0%	0.92×	1.21
Marseille (+0.5)	75.7%	78.4%	68.2%	1.15×	1.28
Toulouse (+1.5)	68.4%	68.7%	75.0%	0.92×	1.46
Marseille (-0.5)	54.0%	52.3%	45.6%	1.15×	1.91
Toulouse (+0.5)	46.0%	47.7%	54.4%	0.88×	2.10
Marseille (-1.5)	31.6%	31.3%	25.0%	1.25×	3.20
Toulouse (-0.5)	24.3%	21.6%	31.8%	0.68×	4.64
Marseille (-2.5)	15.2%	17.6%	10.0%	1.76×	5.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse to concede	86.2%	86.4%	77.5%	1.11×	1.16
Toulouse clean sheet	13.8%	13.6%	22.5%	0.60×	7.37

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse to concede in 1st half	49.7%	50.8%	47.7%	1.06×	1.97
Toulouse clean sheet in 1st half	50.3%	49.2%	52.3%	0.94×	2.03

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse under 6.5 corners	91.4%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Toulouse under 5.5 corners	84.8%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Toulouse under 4.5 corners	74.7%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Toulouse under 3.5 corners	60.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Toulouse over 2.5 corners	58.0%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Toulouse under 2.5 corners	42.0%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Toulouse over 3.5 corners	39.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Toulouse over 4.5 corners	25.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Toulouse over 5.5 corners	15.2%	18.5%	—	—	5.40
Toulouse over 6.5 corners	8.6%	10.0%	—	—	10.04

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse under 3.5 goals	96.0%	97.5%	93.4%	1.04×	1.03
Toulouse under 2.5 goals	86.4%	87.9%	84.6%	1.04×	1.14
Toulouse over 0.5 goals	71.9%	71.9%	69.9%	1.03×	1.39
Toulouse under 1.5 goals	63.8%	63.0%	63.2%	1.00×	1.59
Toulouse over 1.5 goals	36.2%	37.0%	36.8%	1.01×	2.70
Toulouse under 0.5 goals	28.1%	28.1%	30.1%	0.93×	3.56
Toulouse over 2.5 goals	13.6%	12.1%	15.4%	0.79×	8.25
Toulouse over 3.5 goals	4.0%	2.5%	6.6%	0.38×	40.67

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse under 1.5 in 1st half	91.5%	94.1%	87.2%	1.08×	1.06
Toulouse under 0.5 in 1st half	61.6%	64.1%	57.3%	1.12×	1.56
Toulouse over 0.5 in 1st half	38.4%	35.9%	42.7%	0.84×	2.79
Toulouse over 1.5 in 1st half	8.5%	5.9%	12.8%	0.46×	17.06

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (away no bet)	71.3%	68.5%	66.7%	1.03×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	28.7%	31.5%	33.3%	0.94×	3.18

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse even goals	54.0%	52.8%	56.3%	0.94×	1.89
Toulouse odd goals	46.0%	47.2%	43.7%	1.08×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	79.9%	82.3%	83.0%	0.99×	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	20.1%	17.7%	17.0%	1.04×	5.66

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	74.1%	67.4%	65.5%	1.03×	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	25.9%	32.6%	34.5%	0.95×	3.07

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	65.6%	62.1%	60.2%	1.03×	1.61
Marseille to score 2+ in a row	49.3%	46.0%	38.1%	1.21×	2.18
Either team to score 3+ in a row	27.6%	25.1%	22.6%	1.11×	3.99
Toulouse to score 2+ in a row	25.4%	25.0%	28.1%	0.89×	4.00
Marseille to score 3+ in a row	21.4%	19.5%	14.0%	1.39×	5.13
Toulouse to score 3+ in a row	6.7%	5.6%	9.2%	0.61×	17.75

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille corners (+3.5)	94.4%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Marseille corners (+2.5)	90.6%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Marseille corners (+1.5)	85.0%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Toulouse corners (+3.5)	63.4%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Marseille corners (-1.5)	57.5%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Toulouse corners (+2.5)	53.3%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Marseille corners (-2.5)	46.7%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Toulouse corners (+1.5)	42.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Marseille corners (-3.5)	36.6%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Toulouse corners (-1.5)	15.0%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Toulouse corners (-2.5)	9.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Toulouse corners (-3.5)	5.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	49.8%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	26.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	23.9%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	82.3%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	76.1%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	68.6%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	60.6%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	59.7%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	50.2%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	49.8%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	40.3%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	39.4%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 10.5 corners	31.4%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	23.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 12.5 corners	17.7%	19.2%	—	—	5.20

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.7%	7.4%	10.1%	0.73×	13.48
2-1	9.7%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.48
1-0	7.7%	7.4%	10.0%	0.74×	13.48
2-0	7.6%	7.4%	7.6%	0.97×	13.48
1-2	6.2%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.48
2-2	6.1%	7.4%	4.8%	1.53×	13.48
3-0	5.0%	7.4%	3.7%	1.98×	13.48
3-1	6.4%	7.4%	6.2%	1.19×	13.48
Any other score	6.0%	7.4%	5.1%	1.44×	13.48
0-1	4.9%	1.7%	6.4%	0.27×	58.46
0-0	3.9%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.47
0-2	3.1%	1.7%	5.8%	0.30×	58.47
0-3	1.3%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.48
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.49
1-3	2.6%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.47
1-4	0.8%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.49
2-3	2.6%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	58.47
2-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	58.49
3-2	4.1%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.47
3-3	1.7%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.48
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	58.49
4-0	2.5%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.48
4-1	3.2%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.47
4-2	2.0%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.48
4-3	0.8%	1.7%	0.3%	5.48×	58.49
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.48×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille leading at HT (DNB)	61.2%	65.7%	53.2%	1.24×	1.52
Toulouse leading at HT (DNB)	38.8%	34.3%	46.8%	0.73×	2.91

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille or Toulouse (12)	78.2%	75.6%	77.2%	0.98×	1.32
Marseille or draw (1X)	75.7%	75.5%	68.2%	1.11×	1.32
Toulouse or draw (X2)	46.0%	48.5%	54.4%	0.89×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille or draw at HT	77.6%	79.9%	71.1%	1.12×	1.25
Toulouse or draw at HT	64.6%	62.1%	67.2%	0.92×	1.61
Marseille or Toulouse at HT	57.8%	56.9%	61.5%	0.93×	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille or draw (1UP)	75.7%	83.8%	72.5%	1.16×	1.19
Toulouse or draw (1UP)	46.0%	52.6%	62.2%	0.84×	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille or draw in 2nd half	77.4%	76.9%	73.2%	1.05×	1.30
Marseille or Toulouse in 2nd half	71.2%	73.7%	68.8%	1.07×	1.36
Toulouse or draw in 2nd half	51.4%	54.4%	57.9%	0.94×	1.84

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.9%	58.1%	56.8%	1.02×	1.72
Neither half drawn	41.1%	41.9%	43.2%	0.97×	2.39

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (DNB)	69.0%	67.2%	58.9%	1.14×	1.49
Toulouse (DNB)	31.0%	32.8%	41.1%	0.80×	3.05

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to score first	58.6%	62.0%	49.3%	1.26×	1.61
Toulouse to score first	37.5%	32.9%	44.3%	0.74×	3.04
No goal scored	3.9%	4.3%	6.6%	0.66×	23.30

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	62.0%	56.5%	54.0%	1.05×	1.77
Not both teams to score	38.0%	43.5%	46.0%	0.95×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	52.2%	47.1%	44.0%	1.07×	2.13
Not both score & under 2.5	27.2%	33.6%	35.7%	0.94×	2.98
Not both score & over 2.5	10.8%	12.3%	10.5%	1.18×	8.11
Both score & under 2.5	9.7%	8.4%	10.1%	0.83×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	78.7%	80.0%	84.7%	0.94×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	21.3%	20.0%	15.3%	1.31×	4.99

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	60.5%	65.9%	69.9%	0.94×	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	39.5%	34.1%	30.1%	1.13×	2.93

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	49.0%	53.5%	57.4%	0.93×	1.87
Both score 2nd half only	32.0%	26.6%	23.7%	1.12×	3.76
Both score 1st half only	11.5%	10.7%	12.6%	0.85×	9.32
Both score in both halves	7.5%	6.8%	6.6%	1.04×	14.72

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.9%	82.3%	81.0%	1.02×	1.22
Both teams to score by HT	19.1%	17.7%	19.0%	0.93×	5.66

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	60.4%	58.7%	59.4%	0.99×	1.70
A half without a goal	39.6%	41.3%	40.6%	1.02×	2.42

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	42.7%	42.1%	43.4%	0.97×	2.38
4-6 goals	36.1%	35.1%	30.7%	1.14×	2.85
0-1 goals	16.5%	20.2%	22.6%	0.89×	4.96
7+ goals	4.7%	1.8%	3.6%	0.51×	54.31

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse to score exactly 1	35.7%	36.0%	33.2%	1.08×	2.78
Toulouse to score exactly 0	28.1%	27.4%	30.1%	0.91×	3.65
Toulouse to score exactly 2	22.6%	22.4%	21.5%	1.04×	4.46
Toulouse to score 3+	13.6%	12.8%	15.4%	0.83×	7.80

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to score 3+	31.8%	32.6%	22.9%	1.42×	3.06
Marseille to score exactly 1	27.3%	26.5%	31.8%	0.83×	3.77
Marseille to score exactly 2	27.1%	26.5%	23.1%	1.15×	3.77
Marseille to score exactly 0	13.8%	14.3%	22.5%	0.64×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.2%	43.1%	38.5%	1.12×	2.32
Marseille leading at HT	35.4%	37.9%	32.8%	1.16×	2.64
Toulouse leading at HT	22.4%	20.1%	28.9%	0.70×	4.97

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille -1: 2	46.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Marseille -1: 1	31.6%	30.1%	—	—	3.33
Marseille -1: X	22.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse (0:1)	46.0%	45.9%	54.4%	0.84×	2.18
Marseille (0:1)	31.6%	30.0%	25.0%	1.20×	3.33
Draw (0:1)	22.4%	24.3%	20.7%	1.17×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse (0:2)	68.4%	72.2%	75.0%	0.96×	1.39
Draw (0:2)	16.4%	15.3%	15.1%	1.01×	6.55
Marseille (0:2)	15.2%	15.3%	10.0%	1.53×	6.55

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse (0:3)	84.8%	85.2%	90.0%	0.95×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	9.1%	5.8%	6.1%	0.96×	17.13
Marseille (0:3)	6.1%	5.8%	4.1%	1.44×	17.18

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse (0:4)	93.9%	94.7%	95.9%	0.99×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	4.0%	1.2%	2.7%	0.45×	83.21
Marseille (0:4)	2.1%	1.2%	1.6%	0.77×	83.44

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (1:0)	75.7%	78.4%	68.2%	1.15×	1.28
Draw (1:0)	14.3%	12.8%	15.1%	0.85×	7.80
Toulouse (1:0)	10.0%	6.9%	16.8%	0.41×	14.40

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (2:0)	90.0%	93.9%	83.2%	1.13×	1.07
Draw (2:0)	6.7%	6.5%	9.8%	0.66×	15.49
Toulouse (2:0)	3.3%	2.3%	7.2%	0.32×	44.16

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	58.3%	59.4%	47.3%	1.26×	1.68
1st half highest scoring	20.9%	24.1%	26.8%	0.90×	4.16
Halves equal	20.9%	24.1%	26.1%	0.92×	4.16

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to concede	71.9%	73.1%	69.9%	1.05×	1.37
Marseille clean sheet	28.1%	26.9%	30.1%	0.89×	3.71

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille clean sheet in 1st half	61.6%	64.1%	57.3%	1.12×	1.56
Marseille to concede in 1st half	38.4%	35.9%	42.7%	0.84×	2.79

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille over 2.5 corners	84.0%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Marseille over 3.5 corners	72.1%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Marseille under 6.5 corners	65.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Marseille over 4.5 corners	59.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Marseille under 5.5 corners	53.6%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
Marseille over 5.5 corners	46.4%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Marseille under 4.5 corners	40.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Marseille over 6.5 corners	35.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Marseille under 3.5 corners	27.9%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Marseille under 2.5 corners	16.0%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille over 0.5 goals	86.2%	87.3%	77.5%	1.13×	1.15
Marseille under 3.5 goals	86.1%	87.3%	91.7%	0.95×	1.15
Marseille under 2.5 goals	68.2%	67.9%	77.1%	0.88×	1.47
Marseille over 1.5 goals	58.9%	58.8%	45.9%	1.28×	1.70
Marseille under 1.5 goals	41.1%	41.2%	54.1%	0.76×	2.43
Marseille over 2.5 goals	31.8%	32.1%	22.9%	1.40×	3.11
Marseille over 3.5 goals	13.9%	12.8%	8.3%	1.54×	7.84
Marseille under 0.5 goals	13.8%	12.7%	22.5%	0.57×	7.84

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille under 1.5 in 1st half	84.9%	84.4%	87.4%	0.97×	1.19
Marseille over 0.5 in 1st half	49.7%	51.0%	47.7%	1.07×	1.96
Marseille under 0.5 in 1st half	50.3%	49.0%	52.3%	0.94×	2.04
Marseille over 1.5 in 1st half	15.1%	15.6%	12.6%	1.23×	6.41

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse (home no bet)	52.7%	51.6%	58.3%	0.89×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	47.3%	48.4%	41.7%	1.16×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille even goals	51.0%	50.6%	51.3%	0.99×	1.98
Marseille odd goals	49.0%	49.4%	48.7%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	31.0%	32.2%	28.5%	1.13×	3.10
HT 1-0	21.3%	24.1%	21.1%	1.14×	4.15
HT 0-1	15.0%	18.7%	16.8%	1.11×	5.35
HT 1-1	10.3%	10.9%	9.5%	1.15×	9.18
HT 2-0	7.3%	7.1%	6.6%	1.09×	14.05
Any other HT score	4.5%	2.3%	4.7%	0.49×	43.28
HT 0-2	3.6%	2.3%	5.5%	0.42×	43.34
HT 2-1	3.5%	2.3%	3.3%	0.70×	43.35
HT 1-2	2.5%	2.3%	4.5%	0.51×	43.43
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.3%	0.8%	2.94×	43.55

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille at HT / Marseille at FT	29.1%	26.9%	27.5%	0.98×	3.72
Draw at HT / Marseille at FT	20.5%	21.7%	14.8%	1.47×	4.60
Toulouse at HT / Toulouse at FT	12.9%	12.7%	19.3%	0.66×	7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.2%	12.7%	12.9%	0.98×	7.89
Draw at HT / Toulouse at FT	9.5%	6.0%	11.1%	0.54×	16.60
Toulouse at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.0%	6.2%	0.96×	16.73
Marseille at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.5%	3.9%	0.89×	28.79
Toulouse at HT / Marseille at FT	4.3%	3.5%	3.6%	0.97×	28.79
Marseille at HT / Toulouse at FT	1.9%	3.5%	1.7%	2.02×	28.89

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to score last	58.6%	56.6%	53.2%	1.06×	1.77
Toulouse to score last	37.5%	38.6%	40.4%	0.95×	2.59
No goal scored	3.9%	4.3%	6.6%	0.66×	23.30

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.1%	95.6%	93.4%	1.02×	1.05
Marseille to lead by 1 at any time	69.5%	69.6%	58.0%	1.20×	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	55.4%	55.0%	51.3%	1.07×	1.82
Toulouse to lead by 1 at any time	44.5%	39.3%	49.6%	0.79×	2.54
Marseille to lead by 2 at any time	39.6%	34.9%	29.5%	1.18×	2.86
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	23.5%	19.6%	20.1%	0.98×	5.09
Marseille to lead by 3 at any time	18.6%	14.9%	11.9%	1.26×	6.69
Toulouse to lead by 2 at any time	16.2%	14.9%	22.0%	0.68×	6.71
Toulouse to lead by 3 at any time	4.9%	1.7%	8.4%	0.20×	59.56

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille most corners	68.0%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Toulouse most corners	22.6%	25.9%	—	—	3.86
Corners level	9.4%	8.5%	—	—	11.80

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.0%	87.4%	85.0%	1.03×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.8%	78.6%	73.9%	1.06×	1.27
1-4 goals	73.3%	72.4%	76.4%	0.95×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.4%	72.4%	69.0%	1.05×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.7%	63.4%	60.4%	1.05×	1.58
3-6 goals	58.3%	59.2%	50.9%	1.16×	1.69
1-3 goals	55.3%	59.2%	59.4%	1.00×	1.69
3-5 goals	52.0%	53.2%	45.9%	1.16×	1.88
2-3 goals	42.7%	43.6%	43.4%	1.00×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.2%	43.6%	37.3%	1.17×	2.30
4-6 goals	36.1%	39.1%	30.7%	1.27×	2.56
1-2 goals	33.1%	35.4%	39.3%	0.90×	2.83
4-5 goals	29.8%	30.3%	25.7%	1.18×	3.31
5-6 goals	18.1%	18.6%	13.7%	1.36×	5.37
7+ goals	4.7%	2.6%	3.6%	0.71×	39.11

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille never behind	51.6%	61.8%	50.4%	1.23×	1.62
Toulouse never behind	26.6%	30.0%	42.0%	0.72×	3.33

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.8%	47.3%	1.08×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.2%	52.7%	0.93×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.8%	51.7%	51.6%	1.00×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.2%	48.3%	48.4%	1.00×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.8%	52.0%	49.5%	1.05×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.2%	48.0%	50.5%	0.95×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.1%	95.5%	93.4%	1.02×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	88.9%	87.7%	91.4%	0.96×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	83.5%	82.4%	77.4%	1.06×	1.21
Under 4.5 goals	77.2%	77.3%	82.8%	0.93×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	63.1%	61.8%	54.3%	1.14×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	59.1%	58.8%	65.8%	0.89×	1.70
Over 3.5 goals	40.9%	41.2%	34.2%	1.20×	2.43
Under 2.5 goals	36.9%	38.2%	45.7%	0.84×	2.62
Over 4.5 goals	22.8%	22.7%	17.2%	1.32×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	16.5%	17.6%	22.6%	0.78×	5.68
Over 5.5 goals	11.1%	12.3%	8.6%	1.44×	8.10
Under 0.5 goals	3.9%	4.5%	6.6%	0.69×	22.20

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.9%	92.5%	96.2%	0.96×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	87.4%	86.7%	90.6%	0.96×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	79.3%	75.9%	70.6%	1.08×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	72.1%	72.6%	79.3%	0.91×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	52.5%	51.8%	42.8%	1.21×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	47.5%	48.2%	57.2%	0.84×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	27.9%	27.4%	20.7%	1.33×	3.65
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	20.7%	24.1%	29.4%	0.82×	4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	12.6%	13.3%	9.4%	1.41×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.1%	7.5%	3.8%	1.99×	13.28

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.6%	89.0%	87.2%	1.02×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.0%	69.0%	71.5%	0.97×	1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half	67.3%	69.0%	66.1%	1.04×	1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half	32.7%	31.0%	33.9%	0.92×	3.22
Under 0.5 in 1st half	31.0%	31.0%	28.5%	1.08×	3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.4%	11.0%	12.8%	0.86×	9.11

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	87.5%	85.4%	81.4%	1.05×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	65.5%	67.4%	75.4%	0.89×	1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	61.5%	61.6%	48.7%	1.27×	1.62
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	38.5%	38.4%	51.3%	0.75×	2.61
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	34.5%	32.6%	24.6%	1.32×	3.07
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	12.5%	14.6%	18.6%	0.79×	6.83

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse not to score in both halves	79.1%	78.3%	77.4%	1.01×	1.28
Marseille not to score in both halves	63.9%	63.5%	68.0%	0.93×	1.57
Marseille to score in both halves	36.1%	36.5%	32.0%	1.14×	2.74
Toulouse to score in both halves	20.9%	21.7%	22.6%	0.96×	4.61

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	62.0%	60.2%	54.0%	1.12×	1.66
Only Marseille scores	24.2%	22.3%	23.7%	0.94×	4.48
Only Toulouse scores	9.9%	7.2%	16.1%	0.45×	13.89
Neither team scores	3.9%	4.6%	6.6%	0.70×	21.82

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	22.6%	20.3%	1.11×	4.42
Exactly 2 goals	20.5%	22.6%	23.2%	0.97×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	18.0%	17.4%	17.2%	1.02×	5.74
Exactly 1 goals	12.6%	12.1%	16.2%	0.74×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	11.7%	12.1%	8.7%	1.38×	8.28
6 or more goals	11.1%	12.1%	8.6%	1.41×	8.28
Exactly 0 goals	3.9%	4.4%	6.6%	0.67×	22.66

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	61.5%	58.4%	48.7%	1.20×	1.71
1 goal in 2nd half	26.0%	29.8%	32.9%	0.90×	3.36
No goals in 2nd half	12.5%	14.4%	18.6%	0.78×	6.93

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse not to win both halves	94.9%	94.0%	90.6%	1.04×	1.06
Marseille not to win both halves	82.8%	84.2%	83.3%	1.01×	1.19
Marseille to win both halves	17.2%	15.8%	16.7%	0.95×	6.34
Toulouse to win both halves	5.1%	6.0%	9.4%	0.64×	16.70

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to win either half	66.8%	67.8%	58.2%	1.17×	1.47
Toulouse to win neither half	60.0%	65.0%	53.7%	1.21×	1.54
Toulouse to win either half	40.0%	35.0%	46.3%	0.76×	2.85
Marseille to win neither half	33.2%	32.2%	41.8%	0.77×	3.11

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse not to win to nil	90.1%	92.0%	83.9%	1.10×	1.09
Marseille not to win to nil	75.8%	78.0%	76.3%	1.02×	1.28
Marseille to win to nil	24.2%	22.0%	23.7%	0.93×	4.55
Toulouse to win to nil	9.9%	8.0%	16.1%	0.50×	12.52

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille by 1	22.4%	24.1%	20.7%	1.16×	4.14
Draw	21.8%	24.1%	22.8%	1.06×	4.14
Marseille by 2	16.4%	16.9%	15.1%	1.12×	5.91
Marseille by 3+	15.2%	16.9%	10.0%	1.69×	5.91
Toulouse by 1	14.3%	11.8%	15.1%	0.78×	8.47
Toulouse by 2	6.7%	7.3%	9.8%	0.74×	13.78
Toulouse by 3+	3.3%	2.7%	7.2%	0.38×	36.98