Melgar v Comerciantes Unidos — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 27 October 2026 · PER-Liga 1 · 2627

PER-Liga 1 results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Melgar

18:00 UTC

Comerciantes Unidos

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 31h before kick-off

Melgar win

62.8%

model 62.7%

Draw

18.7%

model 20.0%

Comerciantes Unidos win

18.5%

model 17.3%

631919

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (270 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 10.7%
2-0 10.4%
2-1 9.9%
1-1 9.4%
3-0 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	57.2%	Under 2.5	42.8%
BTTS yes	53.0%	BTTS no	47.0%
Melgar 1+	86.8%	Melgar 2+	60.1%
Comerciantes Unidos 1+	61.4%	Comerciantes Unidos 2+	24.7%

Expected goals 2.03 – 0.95. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

84/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Melgar (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 50%

63.7% fair odds 1.57

strong signal · 1134 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Comerciantes Unidos not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 828 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Melgar carry the stronger rating, 1598 Elo against 1451.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Melgar have an estimated 62.8% win probability, against 18.7% for the draw and 18.5% for Comerciantes Unidos. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.03 for Melgar and 0.95 for Comerciantes Unidos.

Why Melgar

Melgar carry the stronger rating, 1598 Elo against 1451.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 18.7%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Comerciantes Unidos can win

Nothing in the data singles out Comerciantes Unidos.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Melgar, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Comerciantes Unidos, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Melgar: 53% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Comerciantes Unidos: 57% possession, 18.6 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Melgar are the model's most likely outcome at 62.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 10.7%. Confidence 84/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	632017	2.03–0.95	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	662015	2.03–0.82	1-0 12%	54%	48%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar to win	65.9%	64.7%	49.8%	1.30×	1.55
Draw	19.5%	19.4%	25.0%	0.78×	5.15
Comerciantes Unidos to win	14.6%	13.5%	25.4%	0.53×	7.42

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar & not both score	38.6%	33.4%	26.4%	1.26×	3.00
Melgar & both teams score	27.3%	25.2%	23.6%	1.07×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	14.1%	13.3%	17.4%	0.76×	7.54
Comerciantes Unidos & not both score	7.8%	8.3%	12.3%	0.68×	12.00
Comerciantes Unidos & both teams score	6.9%	8.3%	13.2%	0.63×	12.00
Draw & not both score	5.4%	8.3%	7.8%	1.07×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar & over 1.5	53.7%	48.9%	38.0%	1.28×	2.05
Melgar & over 2.5	41.8%	40.3%	30.8%	1.31×	2.48
Melgar & under 3.5	41.9%	40.3%	33.7%	1.19×	2.48
Melgar & under 2.5	24.1%	21.6%	19.2%	1.13×	4.63
Melgar & over 3.5	24.0%	21.6%	16.3%	1.33×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	14.7%	12.8%	18.8%	0.68×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	14.7%	12.8%	18.8%	0.68×	7.79
Draw & over 1.5	14.1%	12.8%	17.4%	0.74×	7.79
Melgar & under 1.5	12.1%	12.8%	12.0%	1.07×	7.79
Comerciantes Unidos & under 3.5	11.6%	12.8%	19.4%	0.66×	7.79
Comerciantes Unidos & over 1.5	9.5%	7.9%	17.4%	0.46×	12.62
Comerciantes Unidos & over 2.5	7.5%	7.9%	14.5%	0.55×	12.63
Comerciantes Unidos & under 2.5	7.1%	7.9%	11.1%	0.72×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	5.4%	7.9%	7.8%	1.02×	12.63
Comerciantes Unidos & under 1.5	5.1%	7.9%	8.2%	0.97×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	4.8%	4.8%	6.3%	0.76×	20.81
Draw & over 3.5	4.8%	4.8%	6.3%	0.76×	20.81
Comerciantes Unidos & over 3.5	3.0%	4.8%	6.2%	0.78×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (1UP)	76.2%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Comerciantes Unidos (1UP)	31.0%	32.7%	—	—	3.06

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (2UP)	65.9%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Comerciantes Unidos (2UP)	14.6%	14.1%	—	—	7.07

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar to win 2nd half	52.5%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
2nd half drawn	31.6%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
Comerciantes Unidos to win 2nd half	15.9%	17.7%	—	—	5.64

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Comerciantes Unidos under 1.5 in 2nd half	91.2%	91.6%	—	—	1.09
Comerciantes Unidos under 0.5 in 2nd half	61.1%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
Comerciantes Unidos over 0.5 in 2nd half	38.9%	39.8%	—	—	2.51
Comerciantes Unidos over 1.5 in 2nd half	8.8%	8.4%	—	—	11.92

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar over 0.5 in 2nd half	68.5%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Melgar under 1.5 in 2nd half	67.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Melgar over 1.5 in 2nd half	32.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Melgar under 0.5 in 2nd half	31.5%	29.2%	—	—	3.42

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (+0.5)	85.4%	88.5%	74.6%	1.19×	1.13
Comerciantes Unidos (+2.5)	79.2%	78.5%	88.6%	0.89×	1.27
Melgar (-0.5)	65.9%	68.7%	49.8%	1.38×	1.46
Comerciantes Unidos (+1.5)	59.2%	57.1%	75.4%	0.76×	1.75
Melgar (-1.5)	40.8%	42.9%	24.6%	1.74×	2.33
Comerciantes Unidos (+0.5)	34.1%	31.3%	50.2%	0.62×	3.19
Melgar (-2.5)	20.8%	21.5%	11.4%	1.88×	4.65
Comerciantes Unidos (-0.5)	14.6%	11.5%	25.4%	0.46×	8.66

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Comerciantes Unidos to concede	86.8%	86.3%	80.1%	1.08×	1.16
Comerciantes Unidos clean sheet	13.2%	13.7%	19.9%	0.69×	7.28

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Comerciantes Unidos to concede in 1st half	58.2%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Comerciantes Unidos clean sheet in 1st half	41.8%	43.5%	—	—	2.30

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Comerciantes Unidos to concede in 2nd half	68.5%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
Comerciantes Unidos clean sheet in 2nd half	31.5%	34.3%	—	—	2.92

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Comerciantes Unidos under 6.5 corners	94.6%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Comerciantes Unidos under 5.5 corners	89.2%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Comerciantes Unidos under 4.5 corners	79.9%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
Comerciantes Unidos under 3.5 corners	65.4%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Comerciantes Unidos over 2.5 corners	54.1%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Comerciantes Unidos under 2.5 corners	45.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Comerciantes Unidos over 3.5 corners	34.6%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Comerciantes Unidos over 4.5 corners	20.1%	23.9%	—	—	4.18
Comerciantes Unidos over 5.5 corners	10.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.78
Comerciantes Unidos over 6.5 corners	5.4%	10.1%	—	—	9.92

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Comerciantes Unidos under 3.5 goals	99.0%	97.5%	97.5%	1.00×	1.03
Comerciantes Unidos under 2.5 goals	95.0%	92.4%	92.0%	1.00×	1.08
Comerciantes Unidos under 1.5 goals	80.2%	81.5%	71.6%	1.14×	1.23
Comerciantes Unidos over 0.5 goals	56.0%	59.4%	65.9%	0.90×	1.68
Comerciantes Unidos under 0.5 goals	44.0%	40.6%	34.1%	1.19×	2.46
Comerciantes Unidos over 1.5 goals	19.8%	18.5%	28.4%	0.65×	5.40
Comerciantes Unidos over 2.5 goals	5.0%	7.6%	8.0%	0.96×	13.09
Comerciantes Unidos over 3.5 goals	1.0%	2.5%	2.5%	0.99×	39.92

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Comerciantes Unidos under 1.5 in 1st half	95.7%	96.0%	—	—	1.04
Comerciantes Unidos under 0.5 in 1st half	72.0%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Comerciantes Unidos over 0.5 in 1st half	28.0%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Comerciantes Unidos over 1.5 in 1st half	4.3%	4.0%	—	—	25.06

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Comerciantes Unidos scores equally in both	51.4%	51.1%	—	—	1.96
Comerciantes Unidos scores more in 2nd half	30.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Comerciantes Unidos scores more in 1st half	18.4%	18.1%	—	—	5.52

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (away no bet)	77.2%	73.4%	66.6%	1.10×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	22.8%	26.6%	33.4%	0.80×	3.77

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Comerciantes Unidos even goals	59.7%	56.9%	56.9%	1.00×	1.76
Comerciantes Unidos odd goals	40.3%	43.1%	43.1%	1.00×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	83.5%	83.2%	—	—	1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals	16.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.95

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	66.0%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.0%	32.2%	—	—	3.10

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	61.6%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Melgar to score 2+ in a row	53.5%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	27.6%	25.0%	—	—	4.01
Melgar to score 3+ in a row	25.5%	24.9%	—	—	4.02
Comerciantes Unidos to score 2+ in a row	12.9%	12.2%	—	—	8.22
Comerciantes Unidos to score 3+ in a row	2.3%	2.5%	—	—	39.55

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar corners (+3.5)	97.0%	95.7%	—	—	1.04
Melgar corners (+2.5)	94.4%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Melgar corners (+1.5)	90.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Melgar corners (-1.5)	64.9%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Comerciantes Unidos corners (+3.5)	57.5%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Melgar corners (-2.5)	53.6%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Comerciantes Unidos corners (+2.5)	46.4%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Melgar corners (-3.5)	42.5%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Comerciantes Unidos corners (+1.5)	35.1%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Comerciantes Unidos corners (-1.5)	9.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Comerciantes Unidos corners (-2.5)	5.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
Comerciantes Unidos corners (-3.5)	3.0%	4.3%	—	—	23.48

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	48.7%	41.8%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	28.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	23.0%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	83.5%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	77.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	68.9%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	62.4%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	59.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	51.3%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	48.7%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	40.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	37.6%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	31.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	23.0%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	16.5%	19.3%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	12.1%	11.5%	12.0%	0.96×	8.71
2-0	11.9%	11.5%	7.4%	1.55×	8.71
1-1	9.3%	7.4%	11.2%	0.66×	13.51
2-1	9.8%	7.4%	9.8%	0.76×	13.51
3-0	8.1%	7.4%	5.1%	1.46×	13.51
3-1	6.6%	7.4%	5.3%	1.41×	13.51
0-0	5.4%	7.4%	7.8%	0.95×	13.51
0-1	5.1%	7.4%	8.2%	0.91×	13.51
Any other score	5.6%	7.4%	2.7%	2.72×	13.51
0-2	2.0%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.31
0-3	0.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.58×	58.32
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.16×	58.32
1-2	4.0%	1.7%	7.6%	0.23×	58.30
1-3	1.1%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.31
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.32
2-2	4.0%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.30
2-3	1.1%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.31
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.32
3-2	2.7%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.30
3-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.32
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.37×	58.32
4-0	4.1%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.30
4-1	3.3%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.30
4-2	1.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.58×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.4%	4.73×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	9.47×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (2nd half DNB)	76.8%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Comerciantes Unidos (2nd half DNB)	23.2%	20.5%	—	—	4.87

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar leading at HT (DNB)	77.9%	75.4%	—	—	1.33
Comerciantes Unidos leading at HT (DNB)	22.1%	24.6%	—	—	4.06

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar or draw (1X)	85.4%	86.5%	74.6%	1.16×	1.16
Melgar or Comerciantes Unidos (12)	80.5%	80.6%	75.0%	1.07×	1.24
Comerciantes Unidos or draw (X2)	34.1%	35.3%	50.2%	0.70×	2.83

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar or draw at HT	86.6%	88.3%	—	—	1.13
Melgar or Comerciantes Unidos at HT	60.8%	61.0%	—	—	1.64
Comerciantes Unidos or draw at HT	52.7%	48.5%	—	—	2.06

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar or draw (1UP)	85.4%	91.8%	—	—	1.09
Comerciantes Unidos or draw (1UP)	34.1%	39.5%	—	—	2.53

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar or draw in 2nd half	84.1%	82.3%	—	—	1.22
Melgar or Comerciantes Unidos in 2nd half	68.4%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Comerciantes Unidos or draw in 2nd half	47.5%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.9%	58.9%	—	—	1.70
Neither half drawn	41.1%	41.1%	—	—	2.43

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (DNB)	81.8%	80.4%	66.3%	1.21×	1.25
Comerciantes Unidos (DNB)	18.2%	19.7%	33.7%	0.58×	5.09

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar to score first	67.3%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Comerciantes Unidos to score first	27.2%	27.8%	—	—	3.59
No goal scored	5.4%	7.5%	—	—	13.32

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	51.8%	51.3%	46.2%	1.11×	1.95
Both teams to score	48.2%	48.7%	53.8%	0.91×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	38.9%	38.5%	42.8%	0.90×	2.60
Not both score & under 2.5	36.6%	38.4%	37.7%	1.02×	2.60
Not both score & over 2.5	15.2%	21.5%	8.7%	2.47×	4.66
Both score & under 2.5	9.3%	8.3%	11.2%	0.74×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	88.1%	85.6%	85.7%	1.00×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	11.9%	14.4%	14.3%	1.00×	6.96

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	73.5%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	26.5%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	61.6%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Both score 2nd half only	22.2%	21.2%	—	—	4.71
Both score 1st half only	11.9%	10.7%	—	—	9.31
Both score in both halves	4.3%	4.9%	—	—	20.27

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.8%	83.5%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	16.2%	16.5%	—	—	6.04

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	56.2%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
A half without a goal	43.8%	43.1%	—	—	2.32

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.5%	47.2%	44.2%	1.07×	2.12
4-6 goals	29.2%	26.6%	26.8%	0.99×	3.76
0-1 goals	22.7%	22.9%	27.5%	0.83×	4.36
7+ goals	2.6%	1.8%	1.8%	1.02×	54.30

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Comerciantes Unidos to score exactly 0	44.0%	37.4%	34.1%	1.10×	2.68
Comerciantes Unidos to score exactly 1	36.1%	35.9%	37.7%	0.95×	2.78
Comerciantes Unidos to score exactly 2	14.8%	12.9%	20.7%	0.62×	7.75
Comerciantes Unidos to score 3+	5.0%	8.5%	8.0%	1.07×	11.73

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar to score 3+	33.0%	32.6%	22.5%	1.45×	3.07
Melgar to score exactly 2	27.1%	26.6%	25.0%	1.06×	3.77
Melgar to score exactly 1	26.7%	26.6%	33.0%	0.81×	3.77
Melgar to score exactly 0	13.2%	14.3%	19.9%	0.72×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar leading at HT	47.3%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
Draw at HT	39.3%	39.0%	—	—	2.56
Comerciantes Unidos leading at HT	13.4%	11.7%	—	—	8.53

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar -1: 1	40.8%	42.7%	—	—	2.34
Melgar -1: 2	34.1%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Melgar -1: X	25.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (0:1)	40.8%	42.5%	24.6%	1.73×	2.35
Comerciantes Unidos (0:1)	34.1%	30.2%	50.2%	0.60×	3.31
Draw (0:1)	25.0%	27.0%	25.4%	1.06×	3.71

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Comerciantes Unidos (0:2)	59.2%	63.4%	75.4%	0.84×	1.58
Melgar (0:2)	20.8%	20.3%	11.4%	1.77×	4.94
Draw (0:2)	20.1%	20.2%	13.4%	1.51×	4.94

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Comerciantes Unidos (0:3)	79.2%	80.8%	88.6%	0.91×	1.24
Draw (0:3)	12.0%	9.9%	7.6%	1.30×	10.12
Melgar (0:3)	8.8%	5.8%	4.0%	1.46×	17.22

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Comerciantes Unidos (0:4)	91.2%	94.5%	96.0%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.6%	4.6%	2.5%	1.82×	21.68
Melgar (0:4)	3.1%	1.2%	1.6%	0.75×	81.56

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (1:0)	85.4%	86.1%	74.6%	1.15×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	10.4%	12.7%	17.9%	0.71×	7.88
Comerciantes Unidos (1:0)	4.3%	3.3%	7.6%	0.43×	30.47

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (2:0)	95.7%	96.8%	92.4%	1.05×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	3.3%	2.3%	5.6%	0.41×	43.72
Comerciantes Unidos (2:0)	1.0%	2.3%	2.2%	1.05×	43.87

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.1%	48.7%	—	—	2.06
1st half highest scoring	28.1%	26.3%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	23.8%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar to concede	56.0%	60.6%	65.9%	0.92×	1.65
Melgar clean sheet	44.0%	39.4%	34.1%	1.16×	2.54

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar clean sheet in 1st half	72.0%	66.9%	—	—	1.50
Melgar to concede in 1st half	28.0%	33.1%	—	—	3.02

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar clean sheet in 2nd half	61.1%	59.7%	—	—	1.68
Melgar to concede in 2nd half	38.9%	40.3%	—	—	2.48

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar over 2.5 corners	88.3%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Melgar over 3.5 corners	77.7%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Melgar over 4.5 corners	64.8%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Melgar under 6.5 corners	61.1%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Melgar over 5.5 corners	51.5%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Melgar under 5.5 corners	48.5%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Melgar over 6.5 corners	38.9%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Melgar under 4.5 corners	35.2%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Melgar under 3.5 corners	22.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Melgar under 2.5 corners	11.7%	13.8%	—	—	7.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar over 0.5 goals	86.8%	87.3%	80.1%	1.09×	1.15
Melgar under 3.5 goals	85.2%	87.3%	92.4%	0.94×	1.15
Melgar under 2.5 goals	67.0%	67.9%	77.5%	0.88×	1.47
Melgar over 1.5 goals	60.1%	63.6%	47.3%	1.34×	1.57
Melgar under 1.5 goals	39.9%	36.4%	52.7%	0.69×	2.75
Melgar over 2.5 goals	33.0%	32.1%	22.5%	1.43×	3.12
Melgar over 3.5 goals	14.8%	12.7%	7.6%	1.68×	7.84
Melgar under 0.5 goals	13.2%	12.7%	19.9%	0.64×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar under 1.5 in 1st half	78.3%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Melgar over 0.5 in 1st half	58.2%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
Melgar under 0.5 in 1st half	41.8%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Melgar over 1.5 in 1st half	21.7%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar scores more in 2nd half	42.3%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
Melgar scores equally in both	30.2%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Melgar scores more in 1st half	27.6%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	57.2%	56.4%	49.6%	1.14×	1.77
Comerciantes Unidos (home no bet)	42.8%	43.6%	50.4%	0.87×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar even goals	50.9%	50.7%	50.5%	1.00×	1.97
Melgar odd goals	49.1%	49.3%	49.5%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.1%	33.4%	—	—	2.99
HT 1-0	26.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
HT 2-0	11.4%	11.0%	—	—	9.10
HT 0-1	10.0%	6.9%	—	—	14.50
HT 1-1	8.5%	6.9%	—	—	14.52
Any other HT score	6.3%	6.9%	—	—	14.56
HT 2-1	3.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.16
HT 0-2	1.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.30
HT 1-2	1.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.31
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.36

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar at HT / Melgar at FT	42.2%	41.0%	—	—	2.44
Draw at HT / Melgar at FT	20.9%	21.5%	—	—	4.64
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Comerciantes Unidos at HT / Comerciantes Unidos at FT	7.1%	6.1%	—	—	16.49
Draw at HT / Comerciantes Unidos at FT	6.4%	6.1%	—	—	16.51
Melgar at HT / Draw at FT	4.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
Comerciantes Unidos at HT / Draw at FT	3.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.89
Comerciantes Unidos at HT / Melgar at FT	2.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.92
Melgar at HT / Comerciantes Unidos at FT	1.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.98

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar to score last	67.3%	70.2%	—	—	1.43
Comerciantes Unidos to score last	27.3%	27.3%	—	—	3.67
No goal scored	5.4%	7.5%	—	—	13.32

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.6%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Melgar to lead by 1 at any time	76.2%	77.9%	—	—	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	54.2%	50.6%	—	—	1.97
Melgar to lead by 2 at any time	46.8%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Comerciantes Unidos to lead by 1 at any time	31.0%	29.7%	—	—	3.37
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	25.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Melgar to lead by 3 at any time	23.5%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Comerciantes Unidos to lead by 2 at any time	7.7%	6.7%	—	—	15.03
Comerciantes Unidos to lead by 3 at any time	1.6%	1.6%	—	—	63.71

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar most corners	75.2%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Comerciantes Unidos most corners	16.3%	19.2%	—	—	5.20
Corners level	8.6%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.7%	87.4%	87.1%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.6%	78.7%	78.1%	1.01×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.7%	72.3%	70.8%	1.02×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.4%	72.3%	67.4%	1.07×	1.38
1-3 goals	62.7%	63.3%	63.9%	0.99×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.3%	63.3%	58.3%	1.09×	1.58
3-6 goals	51.5%	53.2%	49.6%	1.07×	1.88
3-5 goals	47.3%	48.4%	46.2%	1.05×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.5%	48.4%	44.2%	1.10×	2.06
1-2 goals	40.4%	43.6%	41.1%	1.06×	2.29
3-4 goals	38.2%	39.2%	37.1%	1.05×	2.55
4-6 goals	29.2%	30.2%	26.8%	1.13×	3.31
4-5 goals	24.9%	24.5%	23.4%	1.05×	4.09
5-6 goals	13.3%	14.8%	12.7%	1.17×	6.75
7+ goals	2.6%	2.6%	1.8%	1.41×	39.15

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar never behind	63.6%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Comerciantes Unidos never behind	18.4%	18.5%	—	—	5.42

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.4%	50.9%	46.7%	1.09×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.6%	49.1%	53.3%	0.92×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.4%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.6%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.6%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.4%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.6%	92.3%	92.2%	1.00×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	93.1%	92.3%	94.7%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	84.0%	82.3%	85.7%	0.96×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	77.3%	77.3%	72.5%	1.07×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	68.2%	66.3%	71.6%	0.93×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	54.2%	52.5%	51.3%	1.02×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	45.8%	47.5%	48.7%	0.97×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	31.8%	33.7%	28.4%	1.18×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	22.7%	22.7%	27.5%	0.82×	4.40
Over 4.5 goals	16.0%	17.7%	14.3%	1.24×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	6.9%	7.7%	5.3%	1.47×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	5.4%	7.7%	7.8%	0.99×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.3%	97.2%	98.1%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.4%	92.4%	94.2%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	81.0%	81.1%	83.3%	0.97×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	70.5%	72.3%	65.1%	1.11×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	59.0%	55.8%	63.1%	0.88×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	41.0%	44.2%	36.9%	1.20×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	29.5%	27.7%	34.9%	0.79×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	19.0%	18.9%	16.7%	1.14×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.6%	7.6%	5.8%	1.31×	13.19
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.7%	2.8%	1.9%	1.50×	35.60

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.0%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.9%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	66.3%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	33.7%	31.5%	—	—	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.1%	31.4%	—	—	3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.0%	11.0%	—	—	9.12

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.9%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	77.1%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	51.1%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	48.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	22.9%	20.5%	—	—	4.88
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.1%	17.1%	—	—	5.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Comerciantes Unidos not to score in both halves	89.1%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Melgar not to score in both halves	60.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Melgar to score in both halves	39.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Comerciantes Unidos to score in both halves	10.9%	14.3%	—	—	7.01

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	48.2%	50.7%	53.8%	0.94×	1.97
Only Melgar scores	38.6%	39.9%	26.4%	1.51×	2.51
Only Comerciantes Unidos scores	7.8%	7.1%	12.3%	0.58×	14.00
Neither team scores	5.4%	7.1%	7.8%	0.92×	14.02

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.1%	22.6%	21.4%	1.06×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	17.3%	17.5%	19.9%	0.88×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.9%	17.5%	14.3%	1.22×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	9.0%	7.6%	9.2%	0.82×	13.13
6 or more goals	6.9%	7.6%	5.3%	1.45×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	5.4%	7.6%	7.8%	0.98×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.3%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
No goals in 1st half	30.1%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	21.6%	21.4%	—	—	4.68
3+ goals in 1st half	12.0%	10.9%	—	—	9.20

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	48.9%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	32.0%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	19.1%	16.8%	—	—	5.95

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Comerciantes Unidos not to win both halves	97.9%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Melgar not to win both halves	75.2%	75.4%	—	—	1.33
Melgar to win both halves	24.8%	24.6%	—	—	4.06
Comerciantes Unidos to win both halves	2.1%	2.8%	—	—	36.34

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar to win either half	75.1%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Comerciantes Unidos to win neither half	72.8%	73.1%	—	—	1.37
Comerciantes Unidos to win either half	27.2%	26.9%	—	—	3.71
Melgar to win neither half	24.9%	20.6%	—	—	4.85

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Comerciantes Unidos not to win to nil	92.2%	92.1%	87.7%	1.05×	1.09
Melgar not to win to nil	61.4%	66.5%	73.6%	0.90×	1.50
Melgar to win to nil	38.6%	33.5%	26.4%	1.27×	2.99
Comerciantes Unidos to win to nil	7.8%	7.9%	12.3%	0.64×	12.64

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar by 1	25.0%	27.9%	25.4%	1.10×	3.59
Melgar by 3+	20.8%	24.1%	11.4%	2.11×	4.15
Melgar by 2	20.1%	24.1%	13.4%	1.80×	4.15
Draw	19.5%	17.0%	25.0%	0.68×	5.87
Comerciantes Unidos by 1	10.4%	11.8%	17.9%	0.66×	8.51
Comerciantes Unidos by 2	3.3%	2.7%	5.6%	0.48×	36.87
Comerciantes Unidos by 3+	1.0%	2.7%	2.2%	1.25×	36.94