Melgar v Juan Pablo II — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 November 2026 · PER-Liga 1 · 2627

PER-Liga 1 results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Melgar

20:00 UTC

Juan Pablo II

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 27 Oct, 10:57 · 273h before kick-off

Melgar win

64.4%

model 66.1%

Draw

17.9%

model 18.1%

Juan Pablo II win

17.8%

model 15.7%

641818

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (176 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 9.8%
2-1 9.8%
1-0 9.0%
1-1 8.3%
3-0 7.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	63.2%	Under 2.5	36.8%
BTTS yes	56.2%	BTTS no	43.8%
Melgar 1+	89.6%	Melgar 2+	66.0%
Juan Pablo II 1+	63.1%	Juan Pablo II 2+	26.4%

Expected goals 2.26 – 1.00. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

82/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

Melgar over 1.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 47%

69.0% fair odds 1.45

strong signal · 1028 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Juan Pablo II not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.2% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 829 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Melgar carry the stronger rating, 1598 Elo against 1440.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Melgar have an estimated 64.4% win probability, against 17.9% for the draw and 17.8% for Juan Pablo II. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.26 for Melgar and 1.00 for Juan Pablo II.

Why Melgar

Melgar carry the stronger rating, 1598 Elo against 1440.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 17.9%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Juan Pablo II can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Melgar, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Juan Pablo II, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Melgar: 53% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 14.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Juan Pablo II: 50% possession, 16.0 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Melgar's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Melgar are the model's most likely outcome at 64.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 9.8%. Confidence 82/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	661816	2.26–1.00	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	721612	2.41–0.86	2-0 11%	63%	52%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar to win	71.9%	73.7%	49.8%	1.48×	1.36
Draw	16.2%	19.4%	25.0%	0.77×	5.16
Juan Pablo II to win	11.9%	13.4%	25.4%	0.53×	7.45

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar & not both score	38.8%	33.3%	26.4%	1.26×	3.00
Melgar & both teams score	33.1%	29.6%	23.6%	1.26×	3.38
Draw & both teams score	12.7%	13.3%	17.4%	0.76×	7.54
Juan Pablo II & both teams score	6.4%	8.3%	13.2%	0.63×	12.01
Juan Pablo II & not both score	5.5%	8.3%	12.3%	0.68×	12.01
Draw & not both score	3.5%	4.9%	7.8%	0.63×	20.51

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar & over 1.5	62.4%	54.7%	38.0%	1.44×	1.83
Melgar & over 2.5	51.3%	48.8%	30.8%	1.58×	2.05
Melgar & under 3.5	38.9%	34.9%	33.7%	1.04×	2.87
Melgar & over 3.5	33.0%	30.8%	16.3%	1.89×	3.25
Melgar & under 2.5	20.5%	21.6%	19.2%	1.13×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	12.7%	12.8%	17.4%	0.74×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	11.1%	12.8%	18.8%	0.68×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	11.1%	12.8%	18.8%	0.68×	7.79
Melgar & under 1.5	9.5%	7.9%	12.0%	0.66×	12.63
Juan Pablo II & under 3.5	8.8%	7.9%	19.4%	0.41×	12.63
Juan Pablo II & over 1.5	8.3%	7.9%	17.4%	0.46×	12.63
Juan Pablo II & over 2.5	6.9%	7.9%	14.5%	0.55×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.2%	7.9%	6.3%	1.25×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.2%	7.9%	6.3%	1.25×	12.63
Juan Pablo II & under 2.5	5.0%	7.9%	11.1%	0.72×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	3.5%	4.8%	7.8%	0.62×	20.82
Juan Pablo II & under 1.5	3.6%	4.8%	8.2%	0.59×	20.82
Juan Pablo II & over 3.5	3.1%	4.8%	6.2%	0.78×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (1UP)	81.5%	87.4%	—	—	1.14
Juan Pablo II (1UP)	29.2%	27.0%	—	—	3.70

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (2UP)	71.9%	81.1%	—	—	1.23
Juan Pablo II (2UP)	11.9%	13.8%	—	—	7.26

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar to win 2nd half	58.3%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
2nd half drawn	27.7%	26.1%	—	—	3.83
Juan Pablo II to win 2nd half	14.0%	11.3%	—	—	8.82

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II under 1.5 in 2nd half	90.5%	91.5%	—	—	1.09
Juan Pablo II under 0.5 in 2nd half	59.7%	54.5%	—	—	1.83
Juan Pablo II over 0.5 in 2nd half	40.3%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
Juan Pablo II over 1.5 in 2nd half	9.5%	8.5%	—	—	11.80

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar over 0.5 in 2nd half	74.6%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
Melgar under 1.5 in 2nd half	60.2%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
Melgar over 1.5 in 2nd half	39.8%	37.0%	—	—	2.70
Melgar under 0.5 in 2nd half	25.4%	25.5%	—	—	3.92

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (+0.5)	88.1%	88.5%	74.6%	1.19×	1.13
Juan Pablo II (+2.5)	72.0%	73.7%	88.6%	0.83×	1.36
Melgar (-0.5)	71.9%	73.7%	49.8%	1.48×	1.36
Juan Pablo II (+1.5)	51.0%	52.4%	75.4%	0.70×	1.91
Melgar (-1.5)	49.0%	47.6%	24.6%	1.93×	2.10
Juan Pablo II (+0.5)	28.1%	26.3%	50.2%	0.53×	3.80
Melgar (-2.5)	28.0%	26.3%	11.4%	2.31×	3.80
Juan Pablo II (-0.5)	11.9%	11.5%	25.4%	0.45×	8.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II to concede	91.0%	91.6%	80.1%	1.14×	1.09
Juan Pablo II clean sheet	9.0%	8.4%	19.9%	0.42×	11.93

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II to concede in 1st half	64.5%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Juan Pablo II clean sheet in 1st half	35.5%	35.3%	—	—	2.83

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II to concede in 2nd half	74.6%	71.7%	—	—	1.40
Juan Pablo II clean sheet in 2nd half	25.4%	28.3%	—	—	3.53

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II under 6.5 corners	92.5%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Juan Pablo II under 5.5 corners	86.0%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Juan Pablo II under 4.5 corners	75.4%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Juan Pablo II under 3.5 corners	59.9%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Juan Pablo II over 2.5 corners	59.4%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Juan Pablo II under 2.5 corners	40.6%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Juan Pablo II over 3.5 corners	40.1%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Juan Pablo II over 4.5 corners	24.6%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Juan Pablo II over 5.5 corners	14.0%	14.8%	—	—	6.77
Juan Pablo II over 6.5 corners	7.5%	10.1%	—	—	9.90

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II under 3.5 goals	98.8%	97.5%	97.5%	1.00×	1.03
Juan Pablo II under 2.5 goals	94.4%	92.4%	92.0%	1.00×	1.08
Juan Pablo II under 1.5 goals	78.7%	76.3%	71.6%	1.07×	1.31
Juan Pablo II over 0.5 goals	57.7%	59.4%	65.9%	0.90×	1.68
Juan Pablo II under 0.5 goals	42.3%	40.6%	34.1%	1.19×	2.47
Juan Pablo II over 1.5 goals	21.3%	23.7%	28.4%	0.83×	4.21
Juan Pablo II over 2.5 goals	5.6%	7.6%	8.0%	0.96×	13.09
Juan Pablo II over 3.5 goals	1.2%	2.5%	2.5%	0.99×	39.91

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II under 1.5 in 1st half	95.3%	96.0%	—	—	1.04
Juan Pablo II under 0.5 in 1st half	70.9%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Juan Pablo II over 0.5 in 1st half	29.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Juan Pablo II over 1.5 in 1st half	4.7%	4.0%	—	—	24.73

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II scores equally in both	50.2%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Juan Pablo II scores more in 2nd half	31.0%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Juan Pablo II scores more in 1st half	18.9%	18.1%	—	—	5.51

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (away no bet)	81.6%	82.6%	66.6%	1.24×	1.21
Draw (away no bet)	18.4%	17.4%	33.4%	0.52×	5.76

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II even goals	59.0%	56.9%	56.9%	1.00×	1.76
Juan Pablo II odd goals	41.0%	43.1%	43.1%	1.00×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	77.4%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Both halves over 1.5 goals	22.6%	19.1%	—	—	5.23

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	73.6%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	26.4%	32.3%	—	—	3.10

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	69.6%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Melgar to score 2+ in a row	62.6%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Either team to score 3+ in a row	35.7%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Melgar to score 3+ in a row	33.7%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
Juan Pablo II to score 2+ in a row	13.1%	12.2%	—	—	8.22
Juan Pablo II to score 3+ in a row	2.3%	2.5%	—	—	39.56

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar corners (+3.5)	96.6%	95.7%	—	—	1.04
Melgar corners (+2.5)	93.8%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Melgar corners (+1.5)	89.5%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Melgar corners (-1.5)	65.2%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Juan Pablo II corners (+3.5)	56.2%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Melgar corners (-2.5)	54.5%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Juan Pablo II corners (+2.5)	45.5%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Melgar corners (-3.5)	43.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Juan Pablo II corners (+1.5)	34.8%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Juan Pablo II corners (-1.5)	10.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Juan Pablo II corners (-2.5)	6.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
Juan Pablo II corners (-3.5)	3.4%	4.3%	—	—	23.48

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	41.9%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	29.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	29.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	78.4%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	71.0%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	68.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	62.3%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	58.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	52.4%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	47.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	41.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	37.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	31.4%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	29.0%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	21.6%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-0	11.1%	11.5%	7.4%	1.54×	8.72
1-0	9.5%	7.4%	12.0%	0.62×	13.51
2-1	9.5%	7.4%	9.8%	0.76×	13.51
3-0	8.9%	7.4%	5.1%	1.46×	13.51
Any other score	9.8%	7.4%	2.7%	2.72×	13.51
1-1	7.6%	7.4%	11.2%	0.66×	13.51
3-1	7.6%	7.4%	5.3%	1.41×	13.51
4-0	5.3%	7.4%	1.6%	4.54×	13.51
0-0	3.5%	1.7%	7.8%	0.22×	58.30
0-1	3.6%	1.7%	8.2%	0.21×	58.30
0-2	1.4%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.31
0-3	0.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.58×	58.32
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.5%	3.16×	58.32
1-2	3.4%	1.7%	7.6%	0.23×	58.30
1-3	1.0%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.31
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.32
2-2	4.1%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.30
2-3	1.2%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.31
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.32
3-2	3.3%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.30
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.31
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.37×	58.32
4-1	4.6%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.29
4-2	2.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.58×	58.31
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.4%	4.73×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	9.47×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (2nd half DNB)	80.6%	81.7%	—	—	1.22
Juan Pablo II (2nd half DNB)	19.4%	18.3%	—	—	5.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar leading at HT (DNB)	81.2%	84.7%	—	—	1.18
Juan Pablo II leading at HT (DNB)	18.8%	15.3%	—	—	6.53

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar or draw (1X)	88.1%	86.6%	74.6%	1.16×	1.16
Melgar or Juan Pablo II (12)	83.8%	80.6%	75.0%	1.08×	1.24
Juan Pablo II or draw (X2)	28.1%	26.3%	50.2%	0.52×	3.81

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar or draw at HT	87.8%	88.3%	—	—	1.13
Melgar or Juan Pablo II at HT	65.1%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Juan Pablo II or draw at HT	47.1%	51.3%	—	—	1.95

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar or draw (1UP)	88.1%	92.2%	—	—	1.09
Juan Pablo II or draw (1UP)	29.2%	32.0%	—	—	3.12

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar or draw in 2nd half	86.0%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
Melgar or Juan Pablo II in 2nd half	72.3%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Juan Pablo II or draw in 2nd half	41.7%	38.4%	—	—	2.61

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	53.3%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
Neither half drawn	46.7%	49.7%	—	—	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (DNB)	85.8%	87.0%	66.3%	1.31×	1.15
Juan Pablo II (DNB)	14.2%	13.0%	33.7%	0.39×	7.70

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar to score first	71.1%	75.1%	—	—	1.33
Juan Pablo II to score first	25.4%	27.6%	—	—	3.62
No goal scored	3.5%	4.4%	—	—	22.90

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.2%	51.3%	53.8%	0.95×	1.95
Not both teams to score	47.8%	48.7%	46.2%	1.05×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.6%	41.6%	42.8%	0.97×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	29.1%	33.3%	37.7%	0.88×	3.00
Not both score & over 2.5	18.8%	21.5%	8.7%	2.48×	4.65
Both score & under 2.5	7.6%	8.3%	11.2%	0.74×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.2%	85.6%	85.7%	1.00×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.8%	14.4%	14.3%	1.01×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.0%	73.5%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	57.0%	60.1%	—	—	1.66
Both score 2nd half only	24.3%	21.3%	—	—	4.69
Both score 1st half only	13.1%	10.7%	—	—	9.31
Both score in both halves	5.6%	6.7%	—	—	14.83

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.3%	83.4%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	18.7%	16.6%	—	—	6.03

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	63.3%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
A half without a goal	36.7%	40.6%	—	—	2.47

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	42.2%	42.2%	44.2%	0.95×	2.37
4-6 goals	36.4%	35.0%	26.8%	1.31×	2.86
0-1 goals	16.6%	20.2%	27.5%	0.73×	4.95
7+ goals	4.8%	1.8%	1.8%	1.02×	54.08

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II to score exactly 0	42.3%	37.3%	34.1%	1.10×	2.68
Juan Pablo II to score exactly 1	36.4%	35.9%	37.7%	0.95×	2.78
Juan Pablo II to score exactly 2	15.6%	19.5%	20.7%	0.95×	5.12
Juan Pablo II to score 3+	5.6%	8.5%	8.0%	1.07×	11.73

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar to score 3+	43.2%	35.2%	22.5%	1.57×	2.84
Melgar to score exactly 2	26.1%	26.6%	25.0%	1.06×	3.77
Melgar to score exactly 1	21.7%	23.3%	33.0%	0.71×	4.29
Melgar to score exactly 0	9.0%	10.4%	19.9%	0.52×	9.65

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar leading at HT	52.9%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
Draw at HT	34.9%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
Juan Pablo II leading at HT	12.2%	11.7%	—	—	8.56

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar -1: 1	49.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Melgar -1: 2	28.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Melgar -1: X	22.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (0:1)	49.0%	46.1%	24.6%	1.87×	2.17
Juan Pablo II (0:1)	28.1%	27.0%	50.2%	0.54×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	22.9%	24.2%	25.4%	0.96×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II (0:2)	51.0%	58.0%	75.4%	0.77×	1.72
Melgar (0:2)	28.0%	24.1%	11.4%	2.11×	4.15
Draw (0:2)	20.9%	20.2%	13.4%	1.51×	4.94

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II (0:3)	72.0%	77.7%	88.6%	0.88×	1.29
Draw (0:3)	14.5%	9.9%	7.6%	1.30×	10.08
Melgar (0:3)	13.5%	9.9%	4.0%	2.48×	10.10

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II (0:4)	86.5%	91.9%	96.0%	0.96×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	8.0%	4.7%	2.5%	1.84×	21.49
Melgar (0:4)	5.5%	4.6%	1.6%	2.83×	21.69

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (1:0)	88.1%	86.2%	74.6%	1.15×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	8.4%	6.9%	17.9%	0.39×	14.48
Juan Pablo II (1:0)	3.5%	3.3%	7.6%	0.43×	30.58

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar (2:0)	96.5%	96.8%	92.4%	1.05×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	2.7%	2.3%	5.6%	0.41×	43.76
Juan Pablo II (2:0)	0.8%	2.3%	2.2%	1.05×	43.88

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.7%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
1st half highest scoring	28.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	22.0%	24.5%	—	—	4.09

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar to concede	57.7%	60.7%	65.9%	0.92×	1.65
Melgar clean sheet	42.3%	39.3%	34.1%	1.15×	2.54

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar clean sheet in 1st half	70.9%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Melgar to concede in 1st half	29.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.00

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar clean sheet in 2nd half	59.7%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Melgar to concede in 2nd half	40.3%	45.1%	—	—	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar over 2.5 corners	90.2%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Melgar over 3.5 corners	80.7%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Melgar over 4.5 corners	68.9%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Melgar over 5.5 corners	56.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Melgar under 6.5 corners	56.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Melgar under 5.5 corners	43.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Melgar over 6.5 corners	43.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Melgar under 4.5 corners	31.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Melgar under 3.5 corners	19.3%	19.0%	—	—	5.26
Melgar under 2.5 corners	9.8%	10.8%	—	—	9.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar over 0.5 goals	91.0%	92.2%	80.1%	1.15×	1.09
Melgar under 3.5 goals	77.8%	77.8%	92.4%	0.84×	1.29
Melgar over 1.5 goals	69.3%	68.0%	47.3%	1.44×	1.47
Melgar under 2.5 goals	56.8%	58.6%	77.5%	0.76×	1.71
Melgar over 2.5 goals	43.2%	41.4%	22.5%	1.84×	2.42
Melgar under 1.5 goals	30.7%	32.0%	52.7%	0.61×	3.12
Melgar over 3.5 goals	22.2%	22.2%	7.6%	2.92×	4.50
Melgar under 0.5 goals	9.0%	7.8%	19.9%	0.39×	12.82

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar under 1.5 in 1st half	72.3%	79.3%	—	—	1.26
Melgar over 0.5 in 1st half	64.5%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Melgar under 0.5 in 1st half	35.5%	35.5%	—	—	2.81
Melgar over 1.5 in 1st half	27.7%	20.7%	—	—	4.83

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar scores more in 2nd half	44.5%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
Melgar scores more in 1st half	28.3%	27.9%	—	—	3.59
Melgar scores equally in both	27.1%	27.9%	—	—	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	57.8%	56.4%	49.6%	1.14×	1.77
Juan Pablo II (home no bet)	42.2%	43.6%	50.4%	0.87×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar even goals	50.4%	50.7%	50.5%	1.00×	1.97
Melgar odd goals	49.6%	49.3%	49.5%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	26.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
HT 0-0	25.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.53
HT 2-0	13.5%	11.0%	—	—	9.09
Any other HT score	9.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.52
HT 1-1	8.9%	6.9%	—	—	14.52
HT 0-1	8.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.52
HT 2-1	4.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.12
HT 0-2	1.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.32
HT 1-2	1.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.32
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.37

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar at HT / Melgar at FT	48.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Draw at HT / Melgar at FT	20.5%	21.6%	—	—	4.64
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	9.3%	6.1%	—	—	16.43
Juan Pablo II at HT / Juan Pablo II at FT	5.8%	6.1%	—	—	16.53
Draw at HT / Juan Pablo II at FT	5.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.55
Melgar at HT / Draw at FT	3.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.90
Juan Pablo II at HT / Melgar at FT	3.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.92
Juan Pablo II at HT / Draw at FT	3.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.92
Melgar at HT / Juan Pablo II at FT	1.0%	3.4%	—	—	29.00

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar to score last	71.0%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Juan Pablo II to score last	25.5%	27.0%	—	—	3.70
No goal scored	3.5%	4.4%	—	—	22.90

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.5%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Melgar to lead by 1 at any time	81.5%	87.5%	—	—	1.14
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	62.1%	61.2%	—	—	1.63
Melgar to lead by 2 at any time	55.4%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	32.8%	29.7%	—	—	3.36
Melgar to lead by 3 at any time	31.4%	29.7%	—	—	3.37
Juan Pablo II to lead by 1 at any time	29.2%	25.3%	—	—	3.95
Juan Pablo II to lead by 2 at any time	7.1%	6.6%	—	—	15.06
Juan Pablo II to lead by 3 at any time	1.4%	1.6%	—	—	63.87

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar most corners	75.0%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Juan Pablo II most corners	16.8%	19.2%	—	—	5.20
Corners level	8.2%	8.3%	—	—	11.99

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.2%	87.4%	87.1%	1.00×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.6%	78.7%	70.8%	1.11×	1.27
1-4 goals	73.4%	72.3%	78.1%	0.93×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.1%	72.3%	67.4%	1.07×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.3%	63.3%	58.3%	1.09×	1.58
3-6 goals	58.5%	59.1%	49.6%	1.19×	1.69
1-3 goals	55.3%	59.1%	63.9%	0.92×	1.69
3-5 goals	52.1%	53.2%	46.2%	1.15×	1.88
2-3 goals	42.2%	43.6%	44.2%	0.99×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.3%	43.6%	37.1%	1.17×	2.29
4-6 goals	36.4%	39.2%	26.8%	1.46×	2.55
1-2 goals	33.1%	35.2%	41.1%	0.86×	2.84
4-5 goals	29.9%	30.2%	23.4%	1.29×	3.31
5-6 goals	18.3%	18.8%	12.7%	1.49×	5.31
7+ goals	4.8%	2.6%	1.8%	1.41×	39.05

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar never behind	67.3%	69.3%	—	—	1.44
Juan Pablo II never behind	15.0%	18.0%	—	—	5.56

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.4%	50.9%	46.7%	1.09×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.6%	49.1%	53.3%	0.92×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.1%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	46.9%	48.2%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.9%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.1%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.5%	95.4%	92.2%	1.03×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	88.7%	87.6%	94.7%	0.92×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	83.4%	82.3%	72.5%	1.14×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	76.9%	77.3%	85.7%	0.90×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	63.4%	61.7%	51.3%	1.20×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	58.8%	58.6%	71.6%	0.82×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	41.2%	41.4%	28.4%	1.45×	2.42
Under 2.5 goals	36.6%	38.3%	48.7%	0.79×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	23.1%	22.7%	14.3%	1.59×	4.40
Under 1.5 goals	16.6%	17.7%	27.5%	0.64×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	11.3%	12.4%	5.3%	2.36×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	3.5%	4.6%	7.8%	0.59×	21.82

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.9%	92.4%	98.1%	0.94×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	87.2%	86.7%	94.2%	0.92×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	79.2%	75.9%	65.1%	1.17×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	71.8%	72.4%	83.3%	0.87×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	52.9%	51.9%	36.9%	1.41×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	47.1%	48.1%	63.1%	0.76×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	28.2%	27.6%	16.7%	1.66×	3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	20.8%	24.1%	34.9%	0.69×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	12.8%	13.3%	5.8%	2.30×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.2%	7.6%	1.9%	4.04×	13.21

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	83.9%	85.8%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	74.9%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	60.0%	64.8%	—	—	1.54
Over 1.5 in 1st half	40.0%	35.2%	—	—	2.85
Under 0.5 in 1st half	25.1%	28.6%	—	—	3.50
Over 2.5 in 1st half	16.1%	14.2%	—	—	7.02

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	85.0%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	70.7%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	56.2%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	43.8%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	29.3%	22.4%	—	—	4.47
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	15.0%	17.0%	—	—	5.88

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II not to score in both halves	88.3%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Melgar not to score in both halves	51.9%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Melgar to score in both halves	48.1%	44.2%	—	—	2.26
Juan Pablo II to score in both halves	11.7%	14.3%	—	—	6.98

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	52.2%	53.8%	53.8%	1.00×	1.86
Only Melgar scores	38.8%	39.9%	26.4%	1.51×	2.51
Only Juan Pablo II scores	5.5%	7.1%	12.3%	0.58×	14.02
Neither team scores	3.5%	4.6%	7.8%	0.59×	21.58

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	20.0%	22.6%	21.4%	1.06×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	18.1%	17.5%	14.3%	1.22×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	13.1%	12.1%	19.9%	0.61×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	11.8%	12.1%	9.2%	1.31×	8.26
6 or more goals	11.3%	12.1%	5.3%	2.31×	8.26
Exactly 0 goals	3.5%	4.5%	7.8%	0.57×	22.35

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	34.8%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
No goals in 1st half	25.1%	28.5%	—	—	3.50
2 goals in 1st half	23.9%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	16.1%	15.6%	—	—	6.40

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	56.2%	54.1%	—	—	1.85
1 goal in 2nd half	28.8%	29.2%	—	—	3.43
No goals in 2nd half	15.0%	16.7%	—	—	5.99

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II not to win both halves	98.3%	97.3%	—	—	1.03
Melgar not to win both halves	69.3%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Melgar to win both halves	30.7%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
Juan Pablo II to win both halves	1.7%	2.7%	—	—	36.54

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar to win either half	80.4%	83.3%	—	—	1.20
Juan Pablo II to win neither half	75.4%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Juan Pablo II to win either half	24.6%	20.5%	—	—	4.87
Melgar to win neither half	19.6%	16.7%	—	—	5.98

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II not to win to nil	94.5%	92.1%	87.7%	1.05×	1.09
Melgar not to win to nil	61.2%	66.5%	73.6%	0.90×	1.50
Melgar to win to nil	38.8%	33.5%	26.4%	1.27×	2.98
Juan Pablo II to win to nil	5.5%	7.9%	12.3%	0.64×	12.69

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Melgar by 3+	28.0%	27.9%	11.4%	2.44×	3.59
Melgar by 1	22.9%	24.1%	25.4%	0.95×	4.15
Melgar by 2	20.9%	24.1%	13.4%	1.80×	4.15
Draw	16.2%	17.0%	25.0%	0.68×	5.87
Juan Pablo II by 1	8.4%	7.2%	17.9%	0.40×	13.91
Juan Pablo II by 2	2.7%	2.7%	5.6%	0.48×	36.89
Juan Pablo II by 3+	0.8%	2.7%	2.2%	1.25×	36.95