Metz v Lille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 8 February 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 16
On target
2 – 2
Shots in box
2 – 12
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.17
Goals − xG
-0.58 – -1.54
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Metz win
22.8%
Draw
20.2%
Lille win
56.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Metz are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.4 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDDLLDLLD last 10
scored 10
from 11.1 xG
conceded 23
from 18.6 xG
Lille are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWDWWLWD last 10
scored 12
from 14.3 xG
conceded 8
from 11.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.03–1.80 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.11–2.23 | 1-2 10% | 65% | 60% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Metz 0.58 xGLille 1.54 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Metz attacking right
Lille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Metz |
Habib Diallo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
 Lille |
Romain Perraud | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tiago Santos |
| 40' |
Lille |
Noah Edjouma | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matias Fernandez-Pardo |
| 41' |
Lille |
Olivier Giroud | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Romain Perraud |
| 41' |
Metz |
Koffi Kouao | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Michal |
| 42' |
Lille |
Noah Edjouma | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Olivier Giroud |
| 49' |
Metz |
Habib Diallo | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jessy Deminguet |
| 50' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ayyoub Bouaddi |
| 56' |
Metz |
Michel Mboula | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Lille |
Olivier Giroud | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Noah Edjouma |
| 60' |
Lille |
Olivier Giroud | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 68' |
Metz |
Giorgi Abuashvili | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 72' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 74' |
Lille |
Felix Correia | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Benjamin André |
| 74' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gaetan Perrin |
| 79' |
Lille |
Alexsandro Ribeiro | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Gaetan Perrin |
| 86' |
Lille |
Felix Correia | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Benjamin André |
| 95' |
Lille |
Benjamin André | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matias Fernandez-Pardo |
| 95' |
Lille |
Gaetan Perrin | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Calvin Verdonk |
| 95' |
Metz |
Gauthier Hein | 0.22 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Fode Toure |
Players
Lille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.27 | 0.50 |
| Benjamin André DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.93 |
| Alexsandro Ribeiro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Aissa Mandi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.61 |
| Berke Özer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Romain Perraud DL | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| Tiago Santos DR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.52 |
| Hákon Haraldsson AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.09 | 0.56 |
| Olivier Giroud FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.08 | 0.43 |
| Noah Edjouma AMR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 0.77 |
| Felix Correia Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Gaetan Perrin Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| Soriba Diaoune Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Ngal'ayel Mukau Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Calvin Verdonk Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
Metz
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Habib Diallo FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Koffi Kouao DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Michel Mboula DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jonathan Fischer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Giorgi Tsitaishvili AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sadibou Sané DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alpha Touré DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fode Toure DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.05 |
| Benjamin Stambouli DMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jessy Deminguet AMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Lucas Michal AMR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Giorgi Abuashvili Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Gauthier Hein Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Believe Munongo Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giorgi Kvilitaia Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |