Metz v Nantes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 5 April 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 6
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
14 – 5
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.32 – 0.01
Goals − xG
-2.58 – -0.39
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Metz win
39.8%
Draw
26.6%
Nantes win
33.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Metz are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.4 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDDLLDLLD last 10
scored 10
from 11.1 xG
conceded 23
from 18.6 xG
Nantes are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDDLLWLD last 10
scored 7
from 12.7 xG
conceded 11
from 13.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.28–1.15 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.17–1.15 | 1-1 13% | 41% | 47% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Metz 2.58 xGNantes 0.39 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Metz attacking right
Nantes attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Metz |
Jessy Deminguet | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Habib Diallo |
| 1' |
Metz |
Koffi Kouao | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 6' |
 Nantes |
Fabien Centonze | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ignatius Ganago |
| 8' |
Metz |
Habib Diallo | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Gauthier Hein |
| 11' |
Metz |
Jessy Deminguet | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Giorgi Tsitaishvili |
| 14' |
Metz |
Giorgi Tsitaishvili | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gauthier Hein |
| 16' |
Nantes |
Francis Coquelin | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mohamed Kaba |
| 17' |
Nantes |
Ignatius Ganago | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Matthis Abline |
| 18' |
Metz |
Gauthier Hein | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bouna Sarr |
| 29' |
Nantes |
Ignatius Ganago | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Metz |
Bouna Sarr | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 42' |
Metz |
Bouna Sarr | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 51' |
Metz |
Gauthier Hein | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Giorgi Tsitaishvili |
| 51' |
Metz |
Sadibou Sané | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Habib Diallo |
| 64' |
Metz |
Believe Munongo | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Metz |
Gauthier Hein | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' |
Metz |
Gauthier Hein | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 78' |
Nantes |
Johann Lepenant | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolas Cozza |
| 83' |
Metz |
Habib Diallo | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nathan Mbala |
| 86' |
Metz |
Habib Diallo | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' |
Metz |
Sadibou Sané | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Gauthier Hein |
| 87' |
Metz |
Giorgi Abuashvili | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gauthier Hein |
| 87' |
Nantes |
Bahereba Guirassy | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolas Cozza |
| 91' |
Metz |
Lucas Michal | 0.52 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jean-Philippe Gbamin |
| 92' |
Metz |
Lucas Michal | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nathan Mbala |
Players
Nantes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johann Lepenant MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Frederic Guilbert DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Anthony Lopes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chidozie Awaziem DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohamed Kaba MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Nicolas Cozza DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Francis Coquelin DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matthis Abline ML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Ignatius Ganago FW | 49 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.05 | 0.28 |
| Fabien Centonze MR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Deiver Machado Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ali Youssif Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tylel Tati DC | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bahereba Guirassy Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ibrahima Sissoko Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Kelvin Adou Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Metz
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gauthier Hein AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.31 | 0.26 | 0.67 |
| Habib Diallo FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.14 | 0.38 |
| Jessy Deminguet DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Sadibou Sané DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Giorgi Tsitaishvili AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| Koffi Kouao DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Pape Sy GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jean-Philippe Gbamin DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.52 | 0.69 |
| Bouna Sarr AMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1.00 | 0.13 | 1.46 |
| Maxime Colin DL | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Michel Mboula DC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Believe Munongo Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Nathan Mbala Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| Lucas Michal Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Giorgi Abuashvili Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.62 |