Metz v Rodez Aveyron — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 5 September 2026 · FRA-Ligue 2 · 2627
FRA-Ligue 2
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Metz are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.4 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.51–1.37 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.79–1.26 | 1-1 11% | 59% | 60% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz to win | 40.5% | 43.8% | 42.6% | 1.03× | 2.28 |
| Rodez Aveyron to win | 34.1% | 29.0% | 29.8% | 0.97× | 3.44 |
| Draw | 25.4% | 27.5% | 27.8% | 0.99× | 3.64 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz & both teams score | 20.9% | 22.7% | 18.7% | 1.21× | 4.41 |
| Metz & not both score | 19.6% | 17.8% | 24.0% | 0.74× | 5.61 |
| Draw & both teams score | 19.4% | 17.8% | 18.9% | 0.94× | 5.61 |
| Rodez Aveyron & both teams score | 17.9% | 17.8% | 12.3% | 1.45× | 5.61 |
| Rodez Aveyron & not both score | 16.2% | 17.8% | 17.7% | 1.01× | 5.62 |
| Draw & not both score | 5.9% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 0.80× | 13.73 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz & over 1.5 | 32.2% | 33.1% | 30.0% | 1.10× | 3.03 |
| Metz & under 3.5 | 26.7% | 25.5% | 29.5% | 0.87× | 3.92 |
| Rodez Aveyron & over 1.5 | 26.7% | 25.5% | 20.1% | 1.27× | 3.92 |
| Metz & over 2.5 | 25.8% | 25.5% | 24.1% | 1.06× | 3.92 |
| Rodez Aveyron & under 3.5 | 23.1% | 21.5% | 23.0% | 0.93× | 4.66 |
| Rodez Aveyron & over 2.5 | 21.4% | 21.5% | 16.3% | 1.32× | 4.66 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 19.4% | 17.6% | 18.9% | 0.93× | 5.68 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 17.8% | 17.6% | 20.7% | 0.85× | 5.68 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 17.8% | 17.6% | 20.7% | 0.85× | 5.68 |
| Metz & under 2.5 | 14.7% | 12.7% | 18.6% | 0.68× | 7.87 |
| Metz & over 3.5 | 13.8% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 0.96× | 7.87 |
| Rodez Aveyron & under 2.5 | 12.7% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 0.93× | 7.88 |
| Rodez Aveyron & over 3.5 | 11.1% | 12.7% | 6.9% | 1.84× | 7.88 |
| Metz & under 1.5 | 8.3% | 7.5% | 12.8% | 0.59× | 13.33 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 1.04× | 13.34 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 1.04× | 13.34 |
| Rodez Aveyron & under 1.5 | 7.5% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 0.76× | 13.34 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 5.9% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 0.83× | 13.35 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz (1UP) | 57.7% | 62.1% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Rodez Aveyron (1UP) | 52.3% | 52.5% | — | — | 1.90 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz (2UP) | 40.5% | 46.5% | — | — | 2.15 |
| Rodez Aveyron (2UP) | 34.1% | 30.4% | — | — | 3.29 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half drawn | 34.5% | 33.8% | — | — | 2.96 |
| Metz to win 2nd half | 33.9% | 33.8% | — | — | 2.96 |
| Rodez Aveyron to win 2nd half | 31.6% | 33.7% | — | — | 2.96 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodez Aveyron under 1.5 in 2nd half | 80.2% | 81.6% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Rodez Aveyron over 0.5 in 2nd half | 55.9% | 56.3% | — | — | 1.78 |
| Rodez Aveyron under 0.5 in 2nd half | 44.1% | 43.7% | — | — | 2.29 |
| Rodez Aveyron over 1.5 in 2nd half | 19.8% | 18.4% | — | — | 5.44 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz under 1.5 in 2nd half | 78.7% | 77.4% | — | — | 1.29 |
| Metz over 0.5 in 2nd half | 57.7% | 58.8% | — | — | 1.70 |
| Metz under 0.5 in 2nd half | 42.3% | 41.2% | — | — | 2.43 |
| Metz over 1.5 in 2nd half | 21.3% | 22.6% | — | — | 4.43 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodez Aveyron (+2.5) | 92.2% | 92.3% | 92.2% | 1.00× | 1.08 |
| Rodez Aveyron (+1.5) | 80.1% | 82.4% | 80.8% | 1.02× | 1.21 |
| Metz (+0.5) | 65.9% | 69.1% | 70.2% | 0.98× | 1.45 |
| Rodez Aveyron (+0.5) | 59.5% | 57.0% | 57.5% | 0.99× | 1.76 |
| Metz (-0.5) | 40.5% | 43.0% | 42.6% | 1.01× | 2.32 |
| Rodez Aveyron (-0.5) | 34.1% | 30.9% | 29.8% | 1.04× | 3.24 |
| Metz (-1.5) | 19.9% | 17.6% | 19.2% | 0.91× | 5.70 |
| Metz (-2.5) | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 0.98× | 13.04 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodez Aveyron to concede | 77.9% | 76.3% | 73.4% | 1.04× | 1.31 |
| Rodez Aveyron clean sheet | 22.1% | 23.7% | 26.6% | 0.89× | 4.22 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodez Aveyron clean sheet in 1st half | 52.3% | 54.6% | — | — | 1.83 |
| Rodez Aveyron to concede in 1st half | 47.7% | 45.4% | — | — | 2.20 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodez Aveyron to concede in 2nd half | 57.7% | 59.2% | — | — | 1.69 |
| Rodez Aveyron clean sheet in 2nd half | 42.3% | 40.8% | — | — | 2.45 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodez Aveyron under 3.5 goals | 95.0% | 97.2% | 97.2% | 1.00× | 1.03 |
| Rodez Aveyron under 2.5 goals | 84.2% | 81.8% | 87.6% | 0.93× | 1.22 |
| Rodez Aveyron over 0.5 goals | 74.5% | 72.1% | 67.1% | 1.07× | 1.39 |
| Rodez Aveyron under 1.5 goals | 60.4% | 63.8% | 68.4% | 0.93× | 1.57 |
| Rodez Aveyron over 1.5 goals | 39.6% | 36.2% | 31.6% | 1.14× | 2.76 |
| Rodez Aveyron under 0.5 goals | 25.5% | 27.9% | 32.9% | 0.85× | 3.59 |
| Rodez Aveyron over 2.5 goals | 15.8% | 18.2% | 12.4% | 1.46× | 5.50 |
| Rodez Aveyron over 3.5 goals | 5.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.01× | 35.98 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodez Aveyron under 1.5 in 1st half | 89.6% | 87.6% | — | — | 1.14 |
| Rodez Aveyron under 0.5 in 1st half | 57.9% | 59.4% | — | — | 1.68 |
| Rodez Aveyron over 0.5 in 1st half | 42.1% | 40.6% | — | — | 2.46 |
| Rodez Aveyron over 1.5 in 1st half | 10.4% | 12.4% | — | — | 8.06 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodez Aveyron scores more in 2nd half | 39.1% | 38.9% | — | — | 2.57 |
| Rodez Aveyron scores equally in both | 38.3% | 38.9% | — | — | 2.57 |
| Rodez Aveyron scores more in 1st half | 22.6% | 21.6% | — | — | 4.64 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz (away no bet) | 61.5% | 58.3% | 60.5% | 0.96× | 1.72 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 38.5% | 41.7% | 39.5% | 1.06× | 2.40 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodez Aveyron even goals | 53.3% | 52.2% | 54.2% | 0.96× | 1.92 |
| Rodez Aveyron odd goals | 46.7% | 47.8% | 45.8% | 1.04× | 2.09 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 83.2% | 81.7% | — | — | 1.22 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 16.8% | 18.3% | — | — | 5.48 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 66.9% | 65.2% | — | — | 1.53 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 33.1% | 34.8% | — | — | 2.87 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 58.2% | 59.4% | — | — | 1.68 |
| Metz to score 2+ in a row | 35.3% | 37.1% | — | — | 2.69 |
| Rodez Aveyron to score 2+ in a row | 30.3% | 33.8% | — | — | 2.96 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 20.9% | 21.7% | — | — | 4.60 |
| Metz to score 3+ in a row | 12.0% | 12.2% | — | — | 8.20 |
| Rodez Aveyron to score 3+ in a row | 9.2% | 7.4% | — | — | 13.55 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.9% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 0.98× | 8.62 |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 0.89× | 13.76 |
| 1-0 | 8.3% | 7.3% | 12.8% | 0.57× | 13.76 |
| 1-2 | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 1.21× | 13.76 |
| 0-1 | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 0.74× | 13.76 |
| 2-0 | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 1.21× | 13.77 |
| 0-0 | 5.9% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 0.80× | 13.77 |
| 2-2 | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 1.24× | 13.77 |
| 0-2 | 5.3% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 1.82× | 13.77 |
| 3-1 | 4.4% | 1.8% | 4.5% | 0.41× | 55.40 |
| 1-3 | 3.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 0.65× | 55.42 |
| 2-3 | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.07× | 55.44 |
| 3-0 | 3.2% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 0.59× | 55.43 |
| 3-2 | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 0.73× | 55.43 |
| Any other score | 3.2% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 0.59× | 55.43 |
| 0-3 | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 0.49× | 55.45 |
| 1-4 | 1.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.96× | 55.48 |
| 3-3 | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.17× | 55.47 |
| 4-0 | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.90× | 55.48 |
| 4-1 | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.68× | 55.47 |
| 0-4 | 0.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 3.91× | 55.49 |
| 2-4 | 0.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 2.93× | 55.49 |
| 3-4 | 0.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 3.91× | 55.50 |
| 4-2 | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.47× | 55.48 |
| 4-3 | 0.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 2.93× | 55.50 |
| 4-4 | 0.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 11.73× | 55.50 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz (2nd half DNB) | 51.7% | 51.6% | — | — | 1.94 |
| Rodez Aveyron (2nd half DNB) | 48.3% | 48.4% | — | — | 2.06 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz leading at HT (DNB) | 55.6% | 56.7% | — | — | 1.76 |
| Rodez Aveyron leading at HT (DNB) | 44.4% | 43.3% | — | — | 2.31 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz or Rodez Aveyron (12) | 74.6% | 72.5% | 72.2% | 1.00× | 1.38 |
| Metz or draw (1X) | 65.9% | 71.0% | 70.2% | 1.01× | 1.41 |
| Rodez Aveyron or draw (X2) | 59.5% | 56.2% | 57.5% | 0.98× | 1.78 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz or draw at HT | 74.3% | 71.3% | — | — | 1.40 |
| Rodez Aveyron or draw at HT | 67.8% | 66.2% | — | — | 1.51 |
| Metz or Rodez Aveyron at HT | 57.9% | 58.1% | — | — | 1.72 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz or draw (1UP) | 65.9% | 74.9% | — | — | 1.34 |
| Rodez Aveyron or draw (1UP) | 59.5% | 64.0% | — | — | 1.56 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz or draw in 2nd half | 68.4% | 66.3% | — | — | 1.51 |
| Rodez Aveyron or draw in 2nd half | 66.1% | 66.2% | — | — | 1.51 |
| Metz or Rodez Aveyron in 2nd half | 65.5% | 66.2% | — | — | 1.51 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 61.8% | 59.4% | — | — | 1.68 |
| Neither half drawn | 38.2% | 40.6% | — | — | 2.46 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz (DNB) | 54.3% | 53.2% | 58.8% | 0.90× | 1.88 |
| Rodez Aveyron (DNB) | 45.7% | 46.8% | 41.2% | 1.14× | 2.14 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz to score first | 49.4% | 46.2% | — | — | 2.16 |
| Rodez Aveyron to score first | 44.7% | 41.5% | — | — | 2.41 |
| No goal scored | 5.9% | 6.2% | — | — | 16.09 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 58.2% | 56.6% | 49.6% | 1.14× | 1.77 |
| Not both teams to score | 41.8% | 43.4% | 50.4% | 0.86× | 2.30 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 46.3% | 45.5% | 37.9% | 1.20× | 2.20 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 33.3% | 34.3% | 41.0% | 0.84× | 2.92 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 11.9% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 0.99× | 8.54 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 8.4% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 0.91× | 11.55 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 82.4% | 81.0% | 85.6% | 0.95× | 1.24 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 17.6% | 19.0% | 14.4% | 1.32× | 5.26 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 67.7% | 69.4% | — | — | 1.44 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 32.3% | 30.6% | — | — | 3.27 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 54.0% | 54.9% | — | — | 1.82 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 25.9% | 24.6% | — | — | 4.06 |
| Both score 1st half only | 13.6% | 11.6% | — | — | 8.63 |
| Both score in both halves | 6.5% | 6.4% | — | — | 15.64 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 79.9% | 80.0% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 20.1% | 20.0% | — | — | 4.99 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 56.8% | 55.7% | — | — | 1.80 |
| A half without a goal | 43.2% | 44.3% | — | — | 2.26 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 45.9% | 45.9% | 41.8% | 1.10× | 2.18 |
| 4-6 goals | 29.7% | 27.8% | 25.2% | 1.10× | 3.60 |
| 0-1 goals | 21.6% | 22.7% | 31.3% | 0.72× | 4.41 |
| 7+ goals | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 0.97× | 51.68 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodez Aveyron to score exactly 1 | 34.9% | 33.1% | 35.6% | 0.93× | 3.02 |
| Rodez Aveyron to score exactly 0 | 25.5% | 27.0% | 32.9% | 0.82× | 3.70 |
| Rodez Aveyron to score exactly 2 | 23.8% | 24.1% | 19.4% | 1.25× | 4.15 |
| Rodez Aveyron to score 3+ | 15.8% | 18.4% | 12.4% | 1.48× | 5.42 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz to score exactly 1 | 33.4% | 30.5% | 33.8% | 0.90× | 3.28 |
| Metz to score exactly 2 | 25.2% | 27.0% | 22.1% | 1.22× | 3.70 |
| Metz to score exactly 0 | 22.1% | 22.9% | 26.6% | 0.86× | 4.36 |
| Metz to score 3+ | 19.3% | 18.5% | 17.8% | 1.04× | 5.39 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 42.1% | 41.9% | — | — | 2.39 |
| Metz leading at HT | 32.2% | 33.8% | — | — | 2.96 |
| Rodez Aveyron leading at HT | 25.7% | 28.7% | — | — | 3.49 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz -1: 2 | 59.5% | 56.3% | — | — | 1.78 |
| Metz -1: X | 20.6% | 24.0% | — | — | 4.17 |
| Metz -1: 1 | 19.9% | 18.9% | — | — | 5.29 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodez Aveyron (0:1) | 59.5% | 55.3% | 57.5% | 0.96× | 1.81 |
| Draw (0:1) | 20.6% | 24.5% | 23.5% | 1.04× | 4.09 |
| Metz (0:1) | 19.9% | 18.3% | 19.2% | 0.95× | 5.46 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodez Aveyron (0:2) | 80.1% | 83.5% | 80.8% | 1.03× | 1.20 |
| Draw (0:2) | 12.1% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 1.01× | 8.63 |
| Metz (0:2) | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 0.91× | 13.98 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodez Aveyron (0:3) | 92.2% | 92.6% | 92.2% | 1.00× | 1.08 |
| Draw (0:3) | 5.3% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 1.57× | 14.79 |
| Metz (0:3) | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 0.63× | 43.29 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodez Aveyron (0:4) | 97.5% | 98.1% | 96.3% | 1.02× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 1.8% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 0.40× | 81.20 |
| Metz (0:4) | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.59× | 81.79 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz (1:0) | 65.9% | 70.3% | 70.2% | 1.00× | 1.42 |
| Draw (1:0) | 18.6% | 16.5% | 17.5% | 0.94× | 6.08 |
| Rodez Aveyron (1:0) | 15.5% | 16.4% | 12.4% | 1.31× | 6.12 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz (2:0) | 84.5% | 84.6% | 87.6% | 0.97× | 1.18 |
| Draw (2:0) | 10.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 0.93× | 15.21 |
| Rodez Aveyron (2:0) | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 1.17× | 15.44 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 48.5% | 48.7% | — | — | 2.05 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 27.0% | 26.1% | — | — | 3.83 |
| Halves equal | 24.5% | 23.2% | — | — | 4.31 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz to concede | 74.5% | 71.6% | 67.1% | 1.07× | 1.40 |
| Metz clean sheet | 25.5% | 28.4% | 32.9% | 0.86× | 3.52 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz clean sheet in 1st half | 57.9% | 59.3% | — | — | 1.69 |
| Metz to concede in 1st half | 42.1% | 40.7% | — | — | 2.45 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz to concede in 2nd half | 55.9% | 55.9% | — | — | 1.79 |
| Metz clean sheet in 2nd half | 44.1% | 44.1% | — | — | 2.27 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz under 3.5 goals | 93.3% | 92.2% | 93.4% | 0.99× | 1.08 |
| Metz under 2.5 goals | 80.7% | 82.5% | 82.2% | 1.00× | 1.21 |
| Metz over 0.5 goals | 77.9% | 76.9% | 73.4% | 1.05× | 1.30 |
| Metz under 1.5 goals | 55.5% | 55.8% | 60.2% | 0.93× | 1.79 |
| Metz over 1.5 goals | 44.5% | 44.2% | 39.8% | 1.11× | 2.27 |
| Metz under 0.5 goals | 22.1% | 23.1% | 26.6% | 0.87× | 4.33 |
| Metz over 2.5 goals | 19.3% | 17.5% | 17.8% | 0.98× | 5.70 |
| Metz over 3.5 goals | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 1.18× | 12.85 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz under 1.5 in 1st half | 86.2% | 87.8% | — | — | 1.14 |
| Metz under 0.5 in 1st half | 52.3% | 54.6% | — | — | 1.83 |
| Metz over 0.5 in 1st half | 47.7% | 45.4% | — | — | 2.20 |
| Metz over 1.5 in 1st half | 13.8% | 12.2% | — | — | 8.17 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz scores more in 2nd half | 38.0% | 38.7% | — | — | 2.58 |
| Metz scores equally in both | 36.3% | 38.7% | — | — | 2.59 |
| Metz scores more in 1st half | 25.7% | 27.8% | — | — | 3.60 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodez Aveyron (home no bet) | 57.4% | 54.4% | 51.7% | 1.05× | 1.84 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 42.6% | 45.6% | 48.3% | 0.94× | 2.20 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz even goals | 52.5% | 50.3% | 53.3% | 0.94× | 1.99 |
| Metz odd goals | 47.5% | 49.7% | 46.7% | 1.07× | 2.01 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 30.3% | 30.4% | — | — | 3.29 |
| HT 1-0 | 19.6% | 18.9% | — | — | 5.28 |
| HT 0-1 | 16.5% | 18.9% | — | — | 5.30 |
| HT 1-1 | 10.8% | 11.2% | — | — | 8.96 |
| HT 2-0 | 6.4% | 7.7% | — | — | 13.01 |
| HT 0-2 | 4.5% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.74 |
| Any other HT score | 4.6% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.74 |
| HT 2-1 | 3.5% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.80 |
| HT 1-2 | 2.9% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.83 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.9% | 2.5% | — | — | 39.95 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz at HT / Metz at FT | 24.0% | 21.4% | — | — | 4.66 |
| Rodez Aveyron at HT / Rodez Aveyron at FT | 18.4% | 16.8% | — | — | 5.95 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 14.8% | 12.0% | — | — | 8.36 |
| Draw at HT / Metz at FT | 14.1% | 12.0% | — | — | 8.36 |
| Draw at HT / Rodez Aveyron at FT | 13.2% | 11.9% | — | — | 8.37 |
| Metz at HT / Draw at FT | 5.6% | 6.6% | — | — | 15.26 |
| Rodez Aveyron at HT / Draw at FT | 4.9% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.30 |
| Metz at HT / Rodez Aveyron at FT | 2.6% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.39 |
| Rodez Aveyron at HT / Metz at FT | 2.4% | 3.4% | — | — | 29.40 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz to score last | 49.4% | 49.3% | — | — | 2.03 |
| Rodez Aveyron to score last | 44.7% | 40.5% | — | — | 2.47 |
| No goal scored | 5.9% | 6.2% | — | — | 16.09 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 94.1% | 93.8% | — | — | 1.07 |
| Metz to lead by 1 at any time | 57.7% | 59.6% | — | — | 1.68 |
| Rodez Aveyron to lead by 1 at any time | 52.3% | 51.0% | — | — | 1.96 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 48.2% | 46.1% | — | — | 2.17 |
| Metz to lead by 2 at any time | 26.6% | 26.1% | — | — | 3.83 |
| Rodez Aveyron to lead by 2 at any time | 21.8% | 19.8% | — | — | 5.05 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 17.3% | 17.6% | — | — | 5.68 |
| Metz to lead by 3 at any time | 9.9% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.10 |
| Rodez Aveyron to lead by 3 at any time | 7.4% | 7.0% | — | — | 14.20 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 86.9% | 87.9% | 84.8% | 1.04× | 1.14 |
| 1-4 goals | 77.7% | 78.9% | 78.8% | 1.00× | 1.27 |
| 2-6 goals | 75.6% | 78.9% | 66.8% | 1.18× | 1.27 |
| 2-5 goals | 71.2% | 73.6% | 62.5% | 1.18× | 1.36 |
| 2-4 goals | 62.0% | 62.2% | 56.5% | 1.10× | 1.61 |
| 1-3 goals | 61.7% | 62.2% | 64.1% | 0.97× | 1.61 |
| 3-6 goals | 52.0% | 52.3% | 45.5% | 1.15× | 1.91 |
| 3-5 goals | 47.6% | 48.0% | 41.2% | 1.17× | 2.08 |
| 2-3 goals | 45.9% | 48.0% | 41.8% | 1.15× | 2.09 |
| 1-2 goals | 39.3% | 38.9% | 43.8% | 0.89× | 2.57 |
| 3-4 goals | 38.4% | 38.9% | 35.2% | 1.11× | 2.57 |
| 4-6 goals | 29.7% | 30.6% | 25.2% | 1.22× | 3.27 |
| 4-5 goals | 25.3% | 30.5% | 20.9% | 1.46× | 3.28 |
| 5-6 goals | 13.6% | 13.5% | 10.4% | 1.29× | 7.40 |
| 7+ goals | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.01× | 49.69 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz never behind | 41.8% | 50.5% | — | — | 1.98 |
| Rodez Aveyron never behind | 36.3% | 45.5% | — | — | 2.20 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 49.3% | 50.2% | 49.9% | 1.01× | 1.99 |
| Even number of goals | 50.7% | 49.8% | 50.1% | 0.99× | 2.01 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 54.7% | 52.0% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 45.3% | 48.0% | — | — | 2.08 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 51.9% | 51.7% | — | — | 1.94 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 48.1% | 48.3% | — | — | 2.07 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 94.1% | 93.0% | 90.9% | 1.02× | 1.08 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 92.8% | 93.0% | 93.7% | 0.99× | 1.08 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 83.6% | 81.0% | 87.7% | 0.92× | 1.23 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.4% | 78.1% | 68.7% | 1.14× | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 67.6% | 65.3% | 73.0% | 0.89× | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.8% | 53.6% | 47.3% | 1.13× | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.2% | 46.4% | 52.7% | 0.88× | 2.16 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.4% | 34.7% | 27.0% | 1.28× | 2.88 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.6% | 21.9% | 31.3% | 0.70× | 4.57 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 16.4% | 19.0% | 12.3% | 1.54× | 5.27 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 1.11× | 14.26 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 0.77× | 14.29 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 97.1% | 97.2% | 97.9% | 0.99× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 92.1% | 92.8% | 93.3% | 0.99× | 1.08 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 80.5% | 80.5% | 85.6% | 0.94× | 1.24 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 71.7% | 72.2% | 60.2% | 1.20× | 1.39 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 58.2% | 55.6% | 66.1% | 0.84× | 1.80 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 41.8% | 44.4% | 33.9% | 1.31× | 2.25 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 28.3% | 27.8% | 39.8% | 0.70× | 3.59 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 19.5% | 19.5% | 14.4% | 1.35× | 5.12 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 1.07× | 13.91 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.32× | 36.32 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 88.1% | 88.1% | — | — | 1.14 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 69.7% | 68.6% | — | — | 1.46 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 66.4% | 68.5% | — | — | 1.46 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 33.6% | 31.5% | — | — | 3.18 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 30.3% | 31.4% | — | — | 3.19 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 11.9% | 11.9% | — | — | 8.41 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 81.2% | 82.0% | — | — | 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 76.3% | 80.3% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 49.9% | 51.8% | — | — | 1.93 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 50.1% | 48.2% | — | — | 2.08 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 23.7% | 19.7% | — | — | 5.09 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 18.8% | 18.0% | — | — | 5.55 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodez Aveyron not to score in both halves | 76.5% | 77.9% | — | — | 1.28 |
| Metz not to score in both halves | 72.5% | 70.4% | — | — | 1.42 |
| Metz to score in both halves | 27.5% | 29.6% | — | — | 3.38 |
| Rodez Aveyron to score in both halves | 23.5% | 22.1% | — | — | 4.53 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 58.2% | 57.8% | 49.6% | 1.17× | 1.73 |
| Only Metz scores | 19.6% | 16.3% | 24.0% | 0.68× | 6.14 |
| Only Rodez Aveyron scores | 16.2% | 16.2% | 17.7% | 0.92× | 6.18 |
| Neither team scores | 5.9% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 0.73× | 15.16 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 goals | 23.6% | 21.6% | 21.5% | 1.00× | 4.63 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 22.3% | 21.6% | 20.4% | 1.06× | 4.63 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 16.0% | 18.5% | 14.9% | 1.24× | 5.39 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 15.7% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 0.83× | 5.39 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 1.24× | 13.11 |
| 6 or more goals | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 1.21× | 13.13 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 5.9% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 0.84× | 13.15 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 1st half | 36.1% | 37.3% | — | — | 2.68 |
| No goals in 1st half | 30.3% | 32.5% | — | — | 3.08 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 21.6% | 21.6% | — | — | 4.63 |
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 11.9% | 11.9% | — | — | 8.42 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 50.1% | 47.4% | — | — | 2.11 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 31.2% | 33.1% | — | — | 3.02 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 18.8% | 18.4% | — | — | 5.43 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodez Aveyron not to win both halves | 91.8% | 93.4% | — | — | 1.07 |
| Metz not to win both halves | 89.0% | 87.6% | — | — | 1.14 |
| Metz to win both halves | 11.0% | 12.4% | — | — | 8.08 |
| Rodez Aveyron to win both halves | 8.2% | 6.6% | — | — | 15.19 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz to win either half | 55.1% | 59.4% | — | — | 1.68 |
| Rodez Aveyron to win neither half | 50.8% | 53.7% | — | — | 1.86 |
| Rodez Aveyron to win either half | 49.2% | 46.3% | — | — | 2.16 |
| Metz to win neither half | 44.9% | 40.6% | — | — | 2.46 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodez Aveyron not to win to nil | 83.8% | 83.5% | 82.3% | 1.01× | 1.20 |
| Metz not to win to nil | 80.4% | 83.4% | 76.0% | 1.10× | 1.20 |
| Metz to win to nil | 19.6% | 16.6% | 24.0% | 0.69× | 6.02 |
| Rodez Aveyron to win to nil | 16.2% | 16.5% | 17.7% | 0.93× | 6.07 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 25.4% | 27.9% | 27.8% | 1.00× | 3.59 |
| Metz by 1 | 20.6% | 23.9% | 23.5% | 1.02× | 4.19 |
| Rodez Aveyron by 1 | 18.6% | 17.1% | 17.5% | 0.98× | 5.86 |
| Metz by 2 | 12.1% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 1.02× | 8.54 |
| Rodez Aveyron by 2 | 10.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 1.00× | 14.17 |
| Metz by 3+ | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 0.90× | 14.22 |
| Rodez Aveyron by 3+ | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 1.27× | 14.27 |