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Metz v Rodez Aveyron — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · FRA-Ligue 2 · 2627

FRA-Ligue 2 results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Metz win
40.5%
Draw
25.4%
Rodez Aveyron win
34.1%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Metz are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.4 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LLDDLLDLLD last 10 scored 10 from 11.1 xG conceded 23 from 18.6 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.51–1.37 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.79–1.26 1-1 11% 59% 60%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz to win 40.5% 43.8% 42.6% 1.03× 2.28
Rodez Aveyron to win 34.1% 29.0% 29.8% 0.97× 3.44
Draw 25.4% 27.5% 27.8% 0.99× 3.64
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz & both teams score 20.9% 22.7% 18.7% 1.21× 4.41
Metz & not both score 19.6% 17.8% 24.0% 0.74× 5.61
Draw & both teams score 19.4% 17.8% 18.9% 0.94× 5.61
Rodez Aveyron & both teams score 17.9% 17.8% 12.3% 1.45× 5.61
Rodez Aveyron & not both score 16.2% 17.8% 17.7% 1.01× 5.62
Draw & not both score 5.9% 7.3% 9.1% 0.80× 13.73
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz & over 1.5 32.2% 33.1% 30.0% 1.10× 3.03
Metz & under 3.5 26.7% 25.5% 29.5% 0.87× 3.92
Rodez Aveyron & over 1.5 26.7% 25.5% 20.1% 1.27× 3.92
Metz & over 2.5 25.8% 25.5% 24.1% 1.06× 3.92
Rodez Aveyron & under 3.5 23.1% 21.5% 23.0% 0.93× 4.66
Rodez Aveyron & over 2.5 21.4% 21.5% 16.3% 1.32× 4.66
Draw & over 1.5 19.4% 17.6% 18.9% 0.93× 5.68
Draw & under 2.5 17.8% 17.6% 20.7% 0.85× 5.68
Draw & under 3.5 17.8% 17.6% 20.7% 0.85× 5.68
Metz & under 2.5 14.7% 12.7% 18.6% 0.68× 7.87
Metz & over 3.5 13.8% 12.7% 13.2% 0.96× 7.87
Rodez Aveyron & under 2.5 12.7% 12.7% 13.7% 0.93× 7.88
Rodez Aveyron & over 3.5 11.1% 12.7% 6.9% 1.84× 7.88
Metz & under 1.5 8.3% 7.5% 12.8% 0.59× 13.33
Draw & over 2.5 7.5% 7.5% 7.2% 1.04× 13.34
Draw & over 3.5 7.5% 7.5% 7.2% 1.04× 13.34
Rodez Aveyron & under 1.5 7.5% 7.5% 9.8% 0.76× 13.34
Draw & under 1.5 5.9% 7.5% 9.1% 0.83× 13.35
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz (1UP) 57.7% 62.1% 1.61
Rodez Aveyron (1UP) 52.3% 52.5% 1.90
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz (2UP) 40.5% 46.5% 2.15
Rodez Aveyron (2UP) 34.1% 30.4% 3.29
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 34.5% 33.8% 2.96
Metz to win 2nd half 33.9% 33.8% 2.96
Rodez Aveyron to win 2nd half 31.6% 33.7% 2.96
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rodez Aveyron under 1.5 in 2nd half 80.2% 81.6% 1.23
Rodez Aveyron over 0.5 in 2nd half 55.9% 56.3% 1.78
Rodez Aveyron under 0.5 in 2nd half 44.1% 43.7% 2.29
Rodez Aveyron over 1.5 in 2nd half 19.8% 18.4% 5.44
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz under 1.5 in 2nd half 78.7% 77.4% 1.29
Metz over 0.5 in 2nd half 57.7% 58.8% 1.70
Metz under 0.5 in 2nd half 42.3% 41.2% 2.43
Metz over 1.5 in 2nd half 21.3% 22.6% 4.43
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rodez Aveyron (+2.5) 92.2% 92.3% 92.2% 1.00× 1.08
Rodez Aveyron (+1.5) 80.1% 82.4% 80.8% 1.02× 1.21
Metz (+0.5) 65.9% 69.1% 70.2% 0.98× 1.45
Rodez Aveyron (+0.5) 59.5% 57.0% 57.5% 0.99× 1.76
Metz (-0.5) 40.5% 43.0% 42.6% 1.01× 2.32
Rodez Aveyron (-0.5) 34.1% 30.9% 29.8% 1.04× 3.24
Metz (-1.5) 19.9% 17.6% 19.2% 0.91× 5.70
Metz (-2.5) 7.8% 7.7% 7.8% 0.98× 13.04
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rodez Aveyron to concede 77.9% 76.3% 73.4% 1.04× 1.31
Rodez Aveyron clean sheet 22.1% 23.7% 26.6% 0.89× 4.22
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rodez Aveyron clean sheet in 1st half 52.3% 54.6% 1.83
Rodez Aveyron to concede in 1st half 47.7% 45.4% 2.20
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rodez Aveyron to concede in 2nd half 57.7% 59.2% 1.69
Rodez Aveyron clean sheet in 2nd half 42.3% 40.8% 2.45
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rodez Aveyron under 3.5 goals 95.0% 97.2% 97.2% 1.00× 1.03
Rodez Aveyron under 2.5 goals 84.2% 81.8% 87.6% 0.93× 1.22
Rodez Aveyron over 0.5 goals 74.5% 72.1% 67.1% 1.07× 1.39
Rodez Aveyron under 1.5 goals 60.4% 63.8% 68.4% 0.93× 1.57
Rodez Aveyron over 1.5 goals 39.6% 36.2% 31.6% 1.14× 2.76
Rodez Aveyron under 0.5 goals 25.5% 27.9% 32.9% 0.85× 3.59
Rodez Aveyron over 2.5 goals 15.8% 18.2% 12.4% 1.46× 5.50
Rodez Aveyron over 3.5 goals 5.0% 2.8% 2.8% 1.01× 35.98
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rodez Aveyron under 1.5 in 1st half 89.6% 87.6% 1.14
Rodez Aveyron under 0.5 in 1st half 57.9% 59.4% 1.68
Rodez Aveyron over 0.5 in 1st half 42.1% 40.6% 2.46
Rodez Aveyron over 1.5 in 1st half 10.4% 12.4% 8.06
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rodez Aveyron scores more in 2nd half 39.1% 38.9% 2.57
Rodez Aveyron scores equally in both 38.3% 38.9% 2.57
Rodez Aveyron scores more in 1st half 22.6% 21.6% 4.64
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz (away no bet) 61.5% 58.3% 60.5% 0.96× 1.72
Draw (away no bet) 38.5% 41.7% 39.5% 1.06× 2.40
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rodez Aveyron even goals 53.3% 52.2% 54.2% 0.96× 1.92
Rodez Aveyron odd goals 46.7% 47.8% 45.8% 1.04× 2.09
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 83.2% 81.7% 1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals 16.8% 18.3% 5.48
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 66.9% 65.2% 1.53
Both halves under 1.5 goals 33.1% 34.8% 2.87
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 58.2% 59.4% 1.68
Metz to score 2+ in a row 35.3% 37.1% 2.69
Rodez Aveyron to score 2+ in a row 30.3% 33.8% 2.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row 20.9% 21.7% 4.60
Metz to score 3+ in a row 12.0% 12.2% 8.20
Rodez Aveyron to score 3+ in a row 9.2% 7.4% 13.55
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 11.9% 11.6% 11.8% 0.98× 8.62
2-1 8.8% 7.3% 8.1% 0.89× 13.76
1-0 8.3% 7.3% 12.8% 0.57× 13.76
1-2 7.9% 7.3% 6.0% 1.21× 13.76
0-1 7.5% 7.3% 9.8% 0.74× 13.76
2-0 6.4% 7.3% 6.0% 1.21× 13.77
0-0 5.9% 7.3% 9.1% 0.80× 13.77
2-2 6.0% 7.3% 5.8% 1.24× 13.77
0-2 5.3% 7.3% 4.0% 1.82× 13.77
3-1 4.4% 1.8% 4.5% 0.41× 55.40
1-3 3.6% 1.8% 2.8% 0.65× 55.42
2-3 2.7% 1.8% 1.7% 1.07× 55.44
3-0 3.2% 1.8% 3.1% 0.59× 55.43
3-2 3.0% 1.8% 2.5% 0.73× 55.43
Any other score 3.2% 1.8% 3.1% 0.59× 55.43
0-3 2.4% 1.8% 3.7% 0.49× 55.45
1-4 1.2% 1.8% 0.9% 1.96× 55.48
3-3 1.4% 1.8% 1.5% 1.17× 55.47
4-0 1.2% 1.8% 2.0% 0.90× 55.48
4-1 1.7% 1.8% 1.1% 1.68× 55.47
0-4 0.8% 1.8% 0.5% 3.91× 55.49
2-4 0.9% 1.8% 0.6% 2.93× 55.49
3-4 0.5% 1.8% 0.5% 3.91× 55.50
4-2 1.1% 1.8% 1.2% 1.47× 55.48
4-3 0.5% 1.8% 0.6% 2.93× 55.50
4-4 0.2% 1.8% 0.2% 11.73× 55.50
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz (2nd half DNB) 51.7% 51.6% 1.94
Rodez Aveyron (2nd half DNB) 48.3% 48.4% 2.06
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz leading at HT (DNB) 55.6% 56.7% 1.76
Rodez Aveyron leading at HT (DNB) 44.4% 43.3% 2.31
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz or Rodez Aveyron (12) 74.6% 72.5% 72.2% 1.00× 1.38
Metz or draw (1X) 65.9% 71.0% 70.2% 1.01× 1.41
Rodez Aveyron or draw (X2) 59.5% 56.2% 57.5% 0.98× 1.78
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz or draw at HT 74.3% 71.3% 1.40
Rodez Aveyron or draw at HT 67.8% 66.2% 1.51
Metz or Rodez Aveyron at HT 57.9% 58.1% 1.72
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz or draw (1UP) 65.9% 74.9% 1.34
Rodez Aveyron or draw (1UP) 59.5% 64.0% 1.56
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz or draw in 2nd half 68.4% 66.3% 1.51
Rodez Aveyron or draw in 2nd half 66.1% 66.2% 1.51
Metz or Rodez Aveyron in 2nd half 65.5% 66.2% 1.51
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 61.8% 59.4% 1.68
Neither half drawn 38.2% 40.6% 2.46
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz (DNB) 54.3% 53.2% 58.8% 0.90× 1.88
Rodez Aveyron (DNB) 45.7% 46.8% 41.2% 1.14× 2.14
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz to score first 49.4% 46.2% 2.16
Rodez Aveyron to score first 44.7% 41.5% 2.41
No goal scored 5.9% 6.2% 16.09
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 58.2% 56.6% 49.6% 1.14× 1.77
Not both teams to score 41.8% 43.4% 50.4% 0.86× 2.30
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 46.3% 45.5% 37.9% 1.20× 2.20
Not both score & under 2.5 33.3% 34.3% 41.0% 0.84× 2.92
Both score & under 2.5 11.9% 11.7% 11.8% 0.99× 8.54
Not both score & over 2.5 8.4% 8.7% 9.5% 0.91× 11.55
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 82.4% 81.0% 85.6% 0.95× 1.24
Both teams to score 2+ 17.6% 19.0% 14.4% 1.32× 5.26
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 67.7% 69.4% 1.44
Both teams to score in 2nd half 32.3% 30.6% 3.27
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 54.0% 54.9% 1.82
Both score 2nd half only 25.9% 24.6% 4.06
Both score 1st half only 13.6% 11.6% 8.63
Both score in both halves 6.5% 6.4% 15.64
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 79.9% 80.0% 1.25
Both teams to score by HT 20.1% 20.0% 4.99
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 56.8% 55.7% 1.80
A half without a goal 43.2% 44.3% 2.26
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 45.9% 45.9% 41.8% 1.10× 2.18
4-6 goals 29.7% 27.8% 25.2% 1.10× 3.60
0-1 goals 21.6% 22.7% 31.3% 0.72× 4.41
7+ goals 2.7% 1.9% 2.0% 0.97× 51.68
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rodez Aveyron to score exactly 1 34.9% 33.1% 35.6% 0.93× 3.02
Rodez Aveyron to score exactly 0 25.5% 27.0% 32.9% 0.82× 3.70
Rodez Aveyron to score exactly 2 23.8% 24.1% 19.4% 1.25× 4.15
Rodez Aveyron to score 3+ 15.8% 18.4% 12.4% 1.48× 5.42
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz to score exactly 1 33.4% 30.5% 33.8% 0.90× 3.28
Metz to score exactly 2 25.2% 27.0% 22.1% 1.22× 3.70
Metz to score exactly 0 22.1% 22.9% 26.6% 0.86× 4.36
Metz to score 3+ 19.3% 18.5% 17.8% 1.04× 5.39
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 42.1% 41.9% 2.39
Metz leading at HT 32.2% 33.8% 2.96
Rodez Aveyron leading at HT 25.7% 28.7% 3.49
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz -1: 2 59.5% 56.3% 1.78
Metz -1: X 20.6% 24.0% 4.17
Metz -1: 1 19.9% 18.9% 5.29
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rodez Aveyron (0:1) 59.5% 55.3% 57.5% 0.96× 1.81
Draw (0:1) 20.6% 24.5% 23.5% 1.04× 4.09
Metz (0:1) 19.9% 18.3% 19.2% 0.95× 5.46
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rodez Aveyron (0:2) 80.1% 83.5% 80.8% 1.03× 1.20
Draw (0:2) 12.1% 11.6% 11.5% 1.01× 8.63
Metz (0:2) 7.8% 7.2% 7.8% 0.91× 13.98
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rodez Aveyron (0:3) 92.2% 92.6% 92.2% 1.00× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.3% 6.8% 4.3% 1.57× 14.79
Metz (0:3) 2.5% 2.3% 3.7% 0.63× 43.29
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rodez Aveyron (0:4) 97.5% 98.1% 96.3% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.8% 1.2% 3.1% 0.40× 81.20
Metz (0:4) 0.7% 1.2% 0.8% 1.59× 81.79
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz (1:0) 65.9% 70.3% 70.2% 1.00× 1.42
Draw (1:0) 18.6% 16.5% 17.5% 0.94× 6.08
Rodez Aveyron (1:0) 15.5% 16.4% 12.4% 1.31× 6.12
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz (2:0) 84.5% 84.6% 87.6% 0.97× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 10.0% 6.6% 7.1% 0.93× 15.21
Rodez Aveyron (2:0) 5.5% 6.5% 5.5% 1.17× 15.44
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.5% 48.7% 2.05
1st half highest scoring 27.0% 26.1% 3.83
Halves equal 24.5% 23.2% 4.31
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz to concede 74.5% 71.6% 67.1% 1.07× 1.40
Metz clean sheet 25.5% 28.4% 32.9% 0.86× 3.52
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz clean sheet in 1st half 57.9% 59.3% 1.69
Metz to concede in 1st half 42.1% 40.7% 2.45
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz to concede in 2nd half 55.9% 55.9% 1.79
Metz clean sheet in 2nd half 44.1% 44.1% 2.27
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz under 3.5 goals 93.3% 92.2% 93.4% 0.99× 1.08
Metz under 2.5 goals 80.7% 82.5% 82.2% 1.00× 1.21
Metz over 0.5 goals 77.9% 76.9% 73.4% 1.05× 1.30
Metz under 1.5 goals 55.5% 55.8% 60.2% 0.93× 1.79
Metz over 1.5 goals 44.5% 44.2% 39.8% 1.11× 2.27
Metz under 0.5 goals 22.1% 23.1% 26.6% 0.87× 4.33
Metz over 2.5 goals 19.3% 17.5% 17.8% 0.98× 5.70
Metz over 3.5 goals 6.7% 7.8% 6.6% 1.18× 12.85
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz under 1.5 in 1st half 86.2% 87.8% 1.14
Metz under 0.5 in 1st half 52.3% 54.6% 1.83
Metz over 0.5 in 1st half 47.7% 45.4% 2.20
Metz over 1.5 in 1st half 13.8% 12.2% 8.17
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz scores more in 2nd half 38.0% 38.7% 2.58
Metz scores equally in both 36.3% 38.7% 2.59
Metz scores more in 1st half 25.7% 27.8% 3.60
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rodez Aveyron (home no bet) 57.4% 54.4% 51.7% 1.05× 1.84
Draw (home no bet) 42.6% 45.6% 48.3% 0.94× 2.20
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz even goals 52.5% 50.3% 53.3% 0.94× 1.99
Metz odd goals 47.5% 49.7% 46.7% 1.07× 2.01
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 30.3% 30.4% 3.29
HT 1-0 19.6% 18.9% 5.28
HT 0-1 16.5% 18.9% 5.30
HT 1-1 10.8% 11.2% 8.96
HT 2-0 6.4% 7.7% 13.01
HT 0-2 4.5% 2.5% 39.74
Any other HT score 4.6% 2.5% 39.74
HT 2-1 3.5% 2.5% 39.80
HT 1-2 2.9% 2.5% 39.83
HT 2-2 0.9% 2.5% 39.95
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz at HT / Metz at FT 24.0% 21.4% 4.66
Rodez Aveyron at HT / Rodez Aveyron at FT 18.4% 16.8% 5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 14.8% 12.0% 8.36
Draw at HT / Metz at FT 14.1% 12.0% 8.36
Draw at HT / Rodez Aveyron at FT 13.2% 11.9% 8.37
Metz at HT / Draw at FT 5.6% 6.6% 15.26
Rodez Aveyron at HT / Draw at FT 4.9% 3.4% 29.30
Metz at HT / Rodez Aveyron at FT 2.6% 3.4% 29.39
Rodez Aveyron at HT / Metz at FT 2.4% 3.4% 29.40
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz to score last 49.4% 49.3% 2.03
Rodez Aveyron to score last 44.7% 40.5% 2.47
No goal scored 5.9% 6.2% 16.09
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.1% 93.8% 1.07
Metz to lead by 1 at any time 57.7% 59.6% 1.68
Rodez Aveyron to lead by 1 at any time 52.3% 51.0% 1.96
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 48.2% 46.1% 2.17
Metz to lead by 2 at any time 26.6% 26.1% 3.83
Rodez Aveyron to lead by 2 at any time 21.8% 19.8% 5.05
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 17.3% 17.6% 5.68
Metz to lead by 3 at any time 9.9% 7.1% 14.10
Rodez Aveyron to lead by 3 at any time 7.4% 7.0% 14.20
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.9% 87.9% 84.8% 1.04× 1.14
1-4 goals 77.7% 78.9% 78.8% 1.00× 1.27
2-6 goals 75.6% 78.9% 66.8% 1.18× 1.27
2-5 goals 71.2% 73.6% 62.5% 1.18× 1.36
2-4 goals 62.0% 62.2% 56.5% 1.10× 1.61
1-3 goals 61.7% 62.2% 64.1% 0.97× 1.61
3-6 goals 52.0% 52.3% 45.5% 1.15× 1.91
3-5 goals 47.6% 48.0% 41.2% 1.17× 2.08
2-3 goals 45.9% 48.0% 41.8% 1.15× 2.09
1-2 goals 39.3% 38.9% 43.8% 0.89× 2.57
3-4 goals 38.4% 38.9% 35.2% 1.11× 2.57
4-6 goals 29.7% 30.6% 25.2% 1.22× 3.27
4-5 goals 25.3% 30.5% 20.9% 1.46× 3.28
5-6 goals 13.6% 13.5% 10.4% 1.29× 7.40
7+ goals 2.7% 2.0% 2.0% 1.01× 49.69
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz never behind 41.8% 50.5% 1.98
Rodez Aveyron never behind 36.3% 45.5% 2.20
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.3% 50.2% 49.9% 1.01× 1.99
Even number of goals 50.7% 49.8% 50.1% 0.99× 2.01
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.7% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 1st half 45.3% 48.0% 2.08
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.9% 51.7% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.1% 48.3% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.1% 93.0% 90.9% 1.02× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 92.8% 93.0% 93.7% 0.99× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 83.6% 81.0% 87.7% 0.92× 1.23
Over 1.5 goals 78.4% 78.1% 68.7% 1.14× 1.28
Under 3.5 goals 67.6% 65.3% 73.0% 0.89× 1.53
Over 2.5 goals 54.8% 53.6% 47.3% 1.13× 1.87
Under 2.5 goals 45.2% 46.4% 52.7% 0.88× 2.16
Over 3.5 goals 32.4% 34.7% 27.0% 1.28× 2.88
Under 1.5 goals 21.6% 21.9% 31.3% 0.70× 4.57
Over 4.5 goals 16.4% 19.0% 12.3% 1.54× 5.27
Over 5.5 goals 7.2% 7.0% 6.3% 1.11× 14.26
Under 0.5 goals 5.9% 7.0% 9.1% 0.77× 14.29
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.1% 97.2% 97.9% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 92.1% 92.8% 93.3% 0.99× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 80.5% 80.5% 85.6% 0.94× 1.24
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 71.7% 72.2% 60.2% 1.20× 1.39
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 58.2% 55.6% 66.1% 0.84× 1.80
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 41.8% 44.4% 33.9% 1.31× 2.25
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 28.3% 27.8% 39.8% 0.70× 3.59
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 19.5% 19.5% 14.4% 1.35× 5.12
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 7.9% 7.2% 6.7% 1.07× 13.91
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.9% 2.8% 2.1% 1.32× 36.32
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 88.1% 88.1% 1.14
Over 0.5 in 1st half 69.7% 68.6% 1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half 66.4% 68.5% 1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half 33.6% 31.5% 3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half 30.3% 31.4% 3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half 11.9% 11.9% 8.41
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 81.2% 82.0% 1.22
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 76.3% 80.3% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 49.9% 51.8% 1.93
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 50.1% 48.2% 2.08
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 23.7% 19.7% 5.09
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 18.8% 18.0% 5.55
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rodez Aveyron not to score in both halves 76.5% 77.9% 1.28
Metz not to score in both halves 72.5% 70.4% 1.42
Metz to score in both halves 27.5% 29.6% 3.38
Rodez Aveyron to score in both halves 23.5% 22.1% 4.53
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 58.2% 57.8% 49.6% 1.17× 1.73
Only Metz scores 19.6% 16.3% 24.0% 0.68× 6.14
Only Rodez Aveyron scores 16.2% 16.2% 17.7% 0.92× 6.18
Neither team scores 5.9% 6.6% 9.1% 0.73× 15.16
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 23.6% 21.6% 21.5% 1.00× 4.63
Exactly 3 goals 22.3% 21.6% 20.4% 1.06× 4.63
Exactly 4 goals 16.0% 18.5% 14.9% 1.24× 5.39
Exactly 1 goals 15.7% 18.5% 22.4% 0.83× 5.39
Exactly 5 goals 9.2% 7.6% 6.1% 1.24× 13.11
6 or more goals 7.2% 7.6% 6.3% 1.21× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 5.9% 7.6% 9.1% 0.84× 13.15
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.1% 37.3% 2.68
No goals in 1st half 30.3% 32.5% 3.08
2 goals in 1st half 21.6% 21.6% 4.63
3+ goals in 1st half 11.9% 11.9% 8.42
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 50.1% 47.4% 2.11
1 goal in 2nd half 31.2% 33.1% 3.02
No goals in 2nd half 18.8% 18.4% 5.43
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rodez Aveyron not to win both halves 91.8% 93.4% 1.07
Metz not to win both halves 89.0% 87.6% 1.14
Metz to win both halves 11.0% 12.4% 8.08
Rodez Aveyron to win both halves 8.2% 6.6% 15.19
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Metz to win either half 55.1% 59.4% 1.68
Rodez Aveyron to win neither half 50.8% 53.7% 1.86
Rodez Aveyron to win either half 49.2% 46.3% 2.16
Metz to win neither half 44.9% 40.6% 2.46
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rodez Aveyron not to win to nil 83.8% 83.5% 82.3% 1.01× 1.20
Metz not to win to nil 80.4% 83.4% 76.0% 1.10× 1.20
Metz to win to nil 19.6% 16.6% 24.0% 0.69× 6.02
Rodez Aveyron to win to nil 16.2% 16.5% 17.7% 0.93× 6.07
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 25.4% 27.9% 27.8% 1.00× 3.59
Metz by 1 20.6% 23.9% 23.5% 1.02× 4.19
Rodez Aveyron by 1 18.6% 17.1% 17.5% 0.98× 5.86
Metz by 2 12.1% 11.7% 11.5% 1.02× 8.54
Rodez Aveyron by 2 10.0% 7.1% 7.1% 1.00× 14.17
Metz by 3+ 7.8% 7.0% 7.8% 0.90× 14.22
Rodez Aveyron by 3+ 5.5% 7.0% 5.5% 1.27× 14.27
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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