Metz v Toulouse — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 15 March 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 19
On target
8 – 6
Shots in box
13 – 9
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.14
Goals − xG
+1.37 – +2.26
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Metz win
21.1%
Draw
23.5%
Toulouse win
55.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Metz are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.4 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDDLLDLLD last 10
scored 10
from 11.1 xG
conceded 23
from 18.6 xG
Toulouse are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLDWWDLDL last 10
scored 11
from 14.6 xG
conceded 19
from 16.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.93–1.68 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.89–1.48 | 0-1 14% | 42% | 45% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Metz 1.63 xGToulouse 1.74 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Metz attacking right
Toulouse attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 5' |
Toulouse |
Aron Dønnum | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Pape Diop |
| 13' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Santiago Hidalgo |
| 14' |
 Metz |
Nathan Mbala | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Giorgi Tsitaishvili |
| 19' |
Metz |
Jessy Deminguet | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Gauthier Hein |
| 21' |
Toulouse |
Jacen Russell-Rowe | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 28' |
Toulouse |
Jacen Russell-Rowe | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 29' |
Metz |
Nathan Mbala | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Giorgi Tsitaishvili |
| 30' |
Metz |
Koffi Kouao | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 33' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacen Russell-Rowe |
| 35' |
Metz |
Jean-Philippe Gbamin | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Giorgi Tsitaishvili |
| 36' |
Toulouse |
Warren Kamanzi | 0.36 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 37' |
Toulouse |
Santiago Hidalgo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacen Russell-Rowe |
| 38' |
Metz |
Bouna Sarr | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gauthier Hein |
| 38' |
Toulouse |
Rasmus Nicolaisen | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 39' |
Metz |
Jessy Deminguet | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Nathan Mbala |
| 41' |
Metz |
Giorgi Tsitaishvili | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gauthier Hein |
| 42' |
Metz |
Jessy Deminguet | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Gauthier Hein |
| 45' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Djibril Sidibe |
| 47' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Warren Kamanzi |
| 53' |
Metz |
Nathan Mbala | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gauthier Hein |
| 65' |
Metz |
Koffi Kouao | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sadibou Sané |
| 66' |
Metz |
Nathan Mbala | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Giorgi Tsitaishvili |
| 67' |
Toulouse |
Emersonn | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 71' |
Toulouse |
Mário Sauer | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
Toulouse |
Warren Kamanzi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 80' |
Toulouse |
Seny Koumbassa | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rasmus Nicolaisen |
| 81' |
Metz |
Alpha Touré | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Gauthier Hein |
| 87' |
Metz |
Giorgi Abuashvili | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 88' |
Metz |
Lucas Michal | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Toulouse |
Aron Dønnum | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Warren Kamanzi |
| 93' |
Toulouse |
Emersonn | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 95' |
Metz |
Giorgi Abuashvili | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 97' |
Metz |
Lucas Michal | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Maxime Colin |
| 97' |
Toulouse |
Mário Sauer | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Emersonn |
| 98' |
Toulouse |
Mário Sauer | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Aron Dønnum |
Players
Toulouse
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yann Gboho FWL | 90 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0.45 | 0.46 | 1.48 |
| Warren Kamanzi DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.04 | 0.87 |
| Aron Dønnum DMR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0.07 | 0.61 | 1.37 |
| Rasmus Nicolaisen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.52 |
| Mark McKenzie DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Djibril Sidibe DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1.23 |
| Pape Diop MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.64 |
| Santiago Hidalgo FWR | 79 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| Alexis Vossah MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Jacen Russell-Rowe FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.47 |
| Guillaume Restes GK | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Kjetil Haug Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Emersonn Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| Mário Sauer Sub | 22 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Seny Koumbassa Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
Metz
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bouna Sarr AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Jean-Philippe Gbamin DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Giorgi Tsitaishvili AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.11 | 0.39 | 0.65 |
| Sadibou Sané DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.37 |
| Gauthier Hein AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.84 |
| Maxime Colin DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.43 |
| Jonathan Fischer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Michel Mboula DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Koffi Kouao DR | 74 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Nathan Mbala FW | 73 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.03 | 0.24 |
| Jessy Deminguet DMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Alpha Touré Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Habib Diallo Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giorgi Abuashvili Sub | 16 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Terry Yegbe Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Michal Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |